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Summary
Transcript
Foreign. You’re watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. So that’s where we are. I think this is a very, very important week in terms of the loss of faith in the administration. And not only that, but this will be reflected in loss of faith in the dollar. Just before we get going, we just launched the official Silver News Daily Telegram. To kick things off, we’re running a 10 ounce silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver, not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This telegram will be our new home for real time silver discussions, market insights, collection picks and everything.
Precious metals. It’s where the community truly comes alive. Here’s how to enter the 10 ounce silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube. Turn on the notification bell, comment 10 ounce giveaway on three separate videos. Be an active member of the telegram group and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we’ll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So get in early, stay active. The financial world is standing on the edge of a disaster so massive most people can’t even comprehend what’s about to happen. Faith in the dollar, once seen as unshakable, is evaporating before our very eyes.
And when the final cracks give way, silver could explode past $100 an ounce and historic surge that leaves the financial elite stunned. Alistair MacLeod warns that we’re not just witnessing a simple correction or a temporary blip. This is the beginning of the end for the dollar as the global reserve currency. And when confidence vanishes, it disappears fast. What follows will be a tidal wave of money flooding out of paper assets and into real tangible wealth, like silver unleashing a precious metals bull market the likes of which we’ve never seen before. Stay with me because once you see how deep the rock goes, you’ll understand why silver’s breakout is not just possible, it’s inevitable.
Yeah, I think the better way to put gold hitting record highs is the dollar’s hitting record lows. That’s the better way to look at it. And actually it is extremely important to look at what’s going on in that light. Foreigners have been getting out of dollars. That’s the whole point. Now to some extent, they’ve been moving into sort of portfolio shifts, have moved into, say, Eurozone bonds, that sort of thing. But basically they’ve just been trying to get out of the dollar. And so that’s why gold shot up. It’s really, I mean, obviously there’s, you know, I mean, you could argue that Gold has risen and all the rest of it.
But actually the more accurate definition is the dollar is going down. And the reason I say that is because of the buyers who have been buying gold. I mean, basically they are central sovereign wealth funds perhaps, who basically just want to get the hell out of the dollar. And that’s what’s been happening. So I mean, the problem really is that, you know, the quantity of dollars in circulation, the amount of credit, dollar credit is absolutely enormous and it by far outweighs the amount of available gold. So you can understand that the dollar priced in gold is more volatile than say, the dollar priced in other currencies.
And of course, when the dollar goes down, it is the king rat of fiat currencies, so it takes the other currencies with them. So I mean, you know, the Asian central banks in particular don’t really have very much appetite for any of our fiat currencies. So you can see why that any dip in gold, anything that comes on offer, they just basically snap up. And that’s what’s. And the liquidity in the system, of course, has moved over to comex from London, Switzerland and elsewhere. That’s where any liquidity is now. But we don’t know what’s happened to that liquidity.
I mean, the stands for delivery are basically accelerated. So as fast as it’s coming in through one door, it’s going out through the other, or I mean, there’s a pause if you like, between them coming in and going out. But you can see that the stands for delivery are enormous. And I suspect that when we see the next stand for delivery, the next contract maturity, and particularly I think it’s the May contract, which is the active one. So end of this month you could see some huge, huge figures going through. I mean, that’s going to be worth watching.
It starts quietly at first, just a few murmurs in the background, investors pulling out, foreign governments hesitating, central banks quietly shifting their reserves. But make no mistake, the cracks in the financial system are not just surface level anymore. Alistair McLeod points out that this week marks a critical turning point where loss of faith is no longer contained to private conversations behind closed doors. It’s bleeding into public sentiment, markets and policy. Trust in the US Administration has been steadily eroding, but now it’s accelerating. And when that trust goes, the dollar follows. You see, the dollar’s strength has always been a confidence game.
It’s not backed by gold, silver or anything tangible, only by belief. And when that belief starts to collapse, the value of the dollar collapses, right Alongside it, the signs are everywhere. Sharper volatility, unexpected policy shifts and desperate attempts to stabilize the markets. The world is beginning to realize that the dollar is no longer the safe haven it once was. And that realization will ignite the next phase of financial chaos. Well, the only clue we have is the US Treasury’s, what do they call it, International capital, the tick figures that they produce. So that’s always sort of looking back a little bit, but not terribly far.
And if you add up all the components, foreign ownership of financial assets, and we’re talking about US Treasuries, we’re talking about short term debt, including bank deposits, and we’re also talking about corporate bonds and we’re also talking about equities, total. All that up on the most recent tick figures we have, we’re looking at about $39 trillion. So that gives you an idea of just, you know, if, let’s just say the foreigners really do get scared, most of that is going to disappear out of the dollar and it’s going to be so destructive as to be enormous.
I mean, it’s as simple as that. Now, obviously there is a bit of a rescue operation going on because the treasury understands this. They produce the figures. After all, they can see, I mean, they’re not stupid as many commentators seem to think. They can see exactly what’s going on. They know the fragility of the situation, which is why Scott Besant in particular has been backtracking on Trump’s policies. And I think that Scott Besant has made it absolutely clear to Trump two things. First of all, his tariff policies are going to destroy the economy. And what it’ll do is it’ll get sell, you know, just everybody will be getting the hell out of the dollar.
And I think the other thing that he has told Trump is, look, you talking about sacking Jay Powell is the worst thing you can do. You are destabilizing the whole of the financial system. Stop it. I doubt if it. Actually, he’s been much less blunt than that. The result is that markets have stabilized. We’ve seen the price of gold fall, or more correctly, the dollar rally measured in gold. And I mean, what sort of $270 change really? And of course any real stuff comes out. I mean, don’t worry that the Chinese and the Russians and everybody else will be grabbing it with both hands, but basically we’ve got a little bit of stability.
I think on the back of that, everybody relieved that these thoroughly destructive, financially destructive policies, when headlines shout that gold is hitting all time highs it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement and think of it as a story of gold’s strength. But Alistair McLeod makes it clear that’s the wrong way to look at it. What we’re really seeing is the dollar hitting all time lows. This shift in perspective is critical because it reveals a deeper truth. The world isn’t rushing toward gold because it loves gold more than ever. It’s running away from the dollar because it’s losing faith.
Every record high in gold isn’t a celebration, it’s a warning. Foreigners aren’t just casually adjusting their portfolios, they’re fleeing to real assets. They know the writing is on the wall and they’re seeking protection against a currency that’s rapidly losing its global stature. The recent surges in gold aren’t about speculative buying frenzies, they’re about survival instincts kicking in. And if gold is signaling a collapse in dollar confidence, silver, with its tighter supply and explosive upside potential, is poised to react with even greater violence once the next stage of the crisis Unfolds of Trump’s have been sat on by, if you like, the establishment, let’s put it that way, the permanent establishment.
And as to whether this is enough to turn the dollar around and stabilize it, I think not. Because remember, there were two things which I’ve been talking about, one of which of course was the destruction, the destructive forces of Trump’s tariff policies and the. The credit bubble. And the credit bubble basically has started to burst. Just look at the equity indices, look at some of the more ephemeral things like bitcoin and so on. I mean, okay, bitcoin are rallying, they’ve got a bid. But if you like, the markers, if you like, of excess credit have taken a hell of a knock.
And while they might rally somewhat, I think that the confidence basically is gone, if you like, upon which credit rarely depends. So I think that’s the first thing. I think the second thing is that if you stand back and you think, okay, we now have an America with a president who we can’t really negotiate with because he’s effectively being cut out of the loop. I mean, this is really what it boils down to. He’s on the run, you know, this art of the deal, forget it. The art of the deal has actually worked against him. So where does this leave a foreigner’s idea about the dollar? Does it mean that they’re suddenly, oh, thank goodness for that.
It’s all, all right, we can go back into the dollar. We don’t need to sell Any dollars. We can continue to buy US Treasuries and all the rest of it. We can continue to invest in equities. Whatever. Whatever. Whatever. No, I don’t think so. I mean, foreigners basically have seen inherently an aggressive. And if you like, yeah, an aggressive America against their own interests, against every other nation’s interests. They see the backing, if you like, that Trump has had from voters in the recent presidential election, and they can see that while the deep state might be regaining control, it’s not necessarily going to be good for international trade relations.
We’ve already seen, I think, quite a lot of damage done to supply chains and things like that. It’s destabilized everything. So now what we have is we have the problem. If you look at the dollar, how are you going to stabilize the dollar? Well, I mean, the best way to stabilize any currency is to raise the interest rates, which we know is not what Mr. Trump wants, but Mr. Trump really has no say in it anymore. So raising interest rates is not something also that the Fed really wants to do, because the economy is already sliding into recession, which basically the great exodus from the dollar isn’t just a theory.
It’s happening right now in real time, and the scale of it is staggering. Sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and major international investors are actively moving out of U.S. treasuries and $ assets, seeking refuge in anything tangible. Gold, silver, commodities, even alternative currencies. Alistair MacLeod underscores that this isn’t a gentle rebalancing of portfolios. It’s a desperate scramble to exit a burning building before the doors slam shut. The dollar has served as the kingpin of the global financial system for decades, but faith in it is crumbling fast. And once confidence in a fiat currency is lost, it never returns.
The surge into gold is only the first wave. Silver, far more scarce and historically more explosive during monetary crises, is sitting quietly in the shadows, overlooked for now, but not for long. As the flight intensifies and the dollar’s credibility continues to unravel, silver is positioned to ignite in a way that will make today’s gold rally look tame by comparison. He means that the budget deficit is already going to increase more than previously estimated. And under those circumstances, foreign lenders, if you like, to the US Government will understand that the government is in a debt trap, is not escaping from that debt trap.
And that’s the real issue. I mean, you know, on the. On the tariff side, it may not be quite as bad as the first scares from Trump suggested, but, you know, it’s still not a Good situation. And with the US Government in a debt trap, what price their bonds? I mean, the answer basically is that the yields have got to rise. And as the yields rise, the situation for US Government finances, federal government finances, get worse. So where does it end? I mean, the answer is you cannot see an end to rising interest rates under the circumstances which have been triggered to a large extent by Trump’s capriciousness over trade.
And so we’re going to have higher interest rates, we’re going to have higher bond yields, and there’s actually very little that the Fed can do about it. The important point as far as Jay Powell was concerned was he knows he’s sitting on a volcano here. And the last thing he wants is to have a president banging off in the long grass about how terrible he is and how he ought to get interest rates down, you know, trying to undermine him. I mean, that’s very, very bad. And I would say that the, the damage that has been done has not been mended, and I don’t think it can be mended.
And it’s just alerted everybody to the problems, if you like, of dealing with America in the future. I mean, look at brics nations. Who are they going to align with? Who are Korea, South Korea and Japan going to align with? Look, they do a lot of business with America. Are all the tariffs going to go? We don’t know. We can hope that there’ll be a sort of, if you like, you know, backing down on the tariffs side. But, you know, this, this mess, I think convinces everyone outside America. Look, you gotta have a plan B. You can’t rely on these Americans.
It’s just nonsense. Have a plan B. And the plan B, of course, is to go cozy up to China, because what does China do? China trades. And not only that, but it’ll provide you the capital to develop your own economy. What smart is alike. So that’s where we are. I think this is a very, very important week in terms of the loss of faith in the administration. And not only that, but this will be reflected in loss of faith in the dollar, faith in the credit of the dollar. So one way and another, I can see a small dead cat bounce, maybe, I think that’s what we’ve got at the moment.
But dead cats don’t bounce too far. And after that, nothing has really changed. So if you like, in the way the press put it, looks like the gold price will continue to rise. The way I put it, the dollar is in a bear market and it’s continuing to be in a Bear market. When you zoom out and look at the raw numbers, the magnitude of what’s at stake becomes impossible to ignore. According to Alastair McLeod, the most recent figures from the US treasury show that foreign ownership of US financial assets, including Treasuries, short term debt, bank deposits, corporate bonds and equities totals a mind blowing $39 trillion.
That’s not a typo. $39 trillion of exposure sitting like a powder keg waiting for a spark. If even a small percentage of that begins to unwind, the impact on the dollar will be catastrophic. Every trillion that leaves isn’t just a loss of capital. It’s a sledgehammer to the very foundation of the US financial system. And history tells us that once a sell off gains momentum, it feeds on itself. Fear breeds more fear and outflows accelerate. The shift we’re seeing now is just the beginning. As foreign holders lose faith faster, that 39 trillion dollar mountain could start to avalanche, unleashing a tidal wave of demand for hard assets, especially silver, which remains criminally undervalued compared to gold.
The smart money already sees it coming. The real question is, will you be ready when the floodgates open? Well, I mean they know, they know that the US government is in the debt trap. They know that already. But the thing that accentuates it is an economy going into recession because the tax base, in order to support a higher level of debt is disintegrating from underneath the debt. And that is, if you like, the classic definition of a debt trap. Everybody knows it. I mean all the central banks around Asia, they’ve got departments that look at these things, they know it.
And I think, I mean in the past there has been a fear, if you like, of upsetting the apple cart, of being first to cry wolf, if you like. And I think that that fear has rescinded very, very significantly. I just get the feeling, you know, the fear of being the first one to cry wolf you’re saying has rescinded. Yeah, well, yeah, the first ones to cry wolf about the, the real state of affairs with the dollar because nobody actually wants to topple the whole thing over. You know, it’s rather like the hands Christian Anderson tale of the emperor who had no clothes and yet nobody wanted to point out that the guy was naked until some innocent child said, oi, the emperor hasn’t got any clothes.
And that broke the dam. And I think it’s as an analogy, it’s not too far away. I think behind the scenes another quiet but deadly shift is underway, one that Alistair McLeod warns, could ignite the silver market in ways most investors aren’t prepared for. The action has moved from traditional hubs like London and Switzerland over to COMEX, the U.S. commodities exchange, where liquidity is drying up fast. But here’s the real kicker. The stands for delivery on comex have accelerated dramatically. What that means is that investors are no longer content to play with paper silver. They want the real physical metal in their hands, and the system simply isn’t built to handle it.
Every ounce that gets pulled out for physical delivery tightens the noose on available supply. Comex warehouses are seeing metal flow in one door and straight out the other, with barely a pause in between. And the next major delivery month, May, is shaping up to be an absolute powder keg. If the physical demand continues to surge, the silver market could snap violently, breaking free from the years of price suppression and igniting a historic rally. The time bomb is ticking, and once it explodes, the scramble for physical silver will leave paper markets in ruins. But what convinces me of that is quite simply is the destruction that he is wrought on markets by, as I said earlier, you know, every time he talks about China, he seems to up, up, you know, he says, you know, I’m going to make it 245.
Tariffs, you know, I mean, hold on. This is a man who actually doesn’t understand what, you know, his responsibilities. And not only that, but you have all executive orders coming out of the White House, which, you know, has he really got the power to do this? You know, you sort of think this is not actually in, you know, basically he’s, he’s doing things that Congress should be doing. I mean, you know, if Congress passed these policies, which I would very much doubt a lot of his policies, that’s actually their responsibility, not the presidents. He sort of, he’s weaseling around the law to basically take total, total dictatorship over American policy.
And his latest example of this, of course, is on interest rates. He’s trying to take it away from the Fed. I mean, this is just so dangerous. And I think that he has been sat on because quite clearly he’s quietened down. And I think he’s just been told, look, shut up. And you know, when you’ve now got to ask yourself the question that having sort of embarked on this, this fairyland ideal idea that he could replace income tax with, you know, tariffs and so on and so forth, you know, like they did before the First World War or whatever, you know, what’s going to happen now that’s obviously not going to happen.
Whether there is going to be any increased revenue from tariffs, we’ll have to see, but there’s a huge question mark over that. What’s going to happen now that we’ve got. He’s really given a kick into a recession. He’s just kicked the economy downstairs. What’s going to happen to. For a brief moment, it almost seemed like the chaos might calm down. After relentless pressure, the Trump administration started to walk back some of its most aggressive economic policies, particularly the tariff threats and the saber rattling at the Federal Reserve. Alastair MacLeod highlights that this retreat wasn’t about political strategy.
It was a desperate attempt to halt the hemorrhaging confidence in the dollar. Advisors like Scott Besant made it crystal. Push those destructive policies any further and you risk blowing up the entire financial system. But here’s the brutal While these policy shifts might have bought a little time, they haven’t solved anything. They’re just a thin coat of paint over a crumbling foundation. The credit bubbles are still bursting, the flight from the dollar is still accelerating, and the structural weaknesses that have been building for decades aren’t going away. Political maneuvering might stabilize the headlines for a few news cycles, but it can’t stop what’s coming.
The real damage is already done and Silver’s moment is still building, hidden beneath the surface turbulence. The budget deficit is going to rise, isn’t it? Can he cut taxes? No. If he tries to cut taxes, he’ll get punished. As simple as that. He no longer, he no longer has the power to do this because I think that Besant and his officials have now got his measurements. Trump has basically made the mistakes. He has proved to be totally incompetent in terms of fiscal policy, in terms of economic management and even, even politics. I would say, you know, he’s just basically bullied his way through.
So now that the state is, you know, is getting Trump’s measure, I mean, and this is not quite so nice, I think the deep state basically is getting back into power, if you like. So we go from sleepy Joe to sleepy Trump. I mean, this is going to be, I think, the way it goes. Because, I mean, you know, if you start losing, if you’re in a position of power, a total power, and you start losing it because you’ve made some fundamental errors, basically you’re on a downhill slope in terms of losing that power. You just lose credibility.
And the loss of the President’s credibility will affect the loss of the dollar’s credibility. And as I say, we’ve got this huge, great credit bubble. The other side of which is debt. And it’s debt that everybody’s looking at abroad anyway. And you can see that if the debt is going to be a problem, which basically means that the cost of debt in the form of interest rates is going to have to rise in order to sustain that debt, as it were, then under those circumstances, what does that do the economy? The economy starts falling apart because it cannot afford higher interest rates because it’s full of zombie corporations.
The level of interest, annual interest cost on the federal government is already greater than the entire defense budget. You know, everything starts going wrong and this is the problem. And I think it’s even too early to say that with the state, if you like, the permanent establishment, helped by people like Scott Besant, who’s actually a pretty sensible guy, you know, trying to sort of calm things down. I don’t think it’s going to work because we’re popping a credit bubble as well as dealing with the trade, with the trade tariff uncertainty. Even as political leaders scramble to project an image of stability, the deeper forces tearing through the financial system are becoming impossible to hide.
Alistair MacLeod points out that the bursting of the credit bubble is the real earthquake. And its aftershocks are rippling across every market. Just look at the signals. The major equity indices have been whipped around with violent volatility. Bitcoin and other speculative assets have been smashed down from their highs. And even corporate bonds, once a safe haven for yield seekers, are flashing serious warning signs. These aren’t random market jitters. They’re the symptoms of a credit system losing its life support. Confidence is the oxygen of credit. And once that confidence disappears, the entire structure collapses. Investors are beginning to recognize that what once fueled endless growth, cheap money, loose credit and limitless belief in central bank intervention is now turning toxic.
As traditional investments falter and faith evaporates, the world will look for something real, something solid. And that’s where silver, with its dual role as money and essential industrial metal, stands ready to catch the panic driven wave of demand that paper assets can no longer satisfy. Well, I mean, just put yourself in the Russians shoes for a start. The Russians. You know, it’s all very nice, the idea of having, you know, Trump has actually said, well, yeah, I can sort this out in a day. And you know, okay, realistically that was never on. But Trump is far closer to coming to some sort of agreement over the Ukraine than the previous administration.
I mean, it’s as simple as that. But you have to ask yourself, do we really trust this guy? Does he have the support, if you like, to push through these policies. And I think these, you know, what’s been happening recently rather suggests that he no longer has the support within his own organization to really push through these policies. Not only that, but of course, Trump is really looking at effectively dismantling NATO. You know, he doesn’t want to continue to pay huge amounts for NATO with other members paying, you know, not very much or 2% or whatever.
And, okay, other members of NATO have said, yes, well, we will, we will up our defense expenditure and so on and so forth. You know, point taken, Mr. President. Yeah, we understand, understand. But I mean, they’ll be looking at this and thinking, well, it looks like Trump is getting his comeuppance now. So if we’re a bit patient, then we might not have to do all this because America will probably come back and support NATO, because if the President’s got his comeuppance, I mean, do we actually deal with him? And the latest thing, of course, is that a couple of representatives, I think, talking about Ukraine, I haven’t really got on top of the story, were meant to join a, a meeting, if you like, of leaders in London today, and the Americans are bowed out, they’re not attending.
The whole thing is a state of flux, and, you know, Trump loses his credibility. I mean, it happens abroad as well as in, in America. And so you can see, I think, that we have to rethink the impact on the Ukraine situation, and I suspect that peace, if you like, is moving further and further away. Silver has always been the wild card in monetary crises, and this time, it’s set to play a bigger role than ever before. Alistair McLeod explains that while gold has been stealing the spotlight, silver’s lurking in the background, poised for its explosive moment.
Historically, silver doesn’t just follow gold. It overcompensates with staggering speed once momentum shifts. In past crises, silver has routinely multiplied its value several times over in just a few months, far outperforming gold in percentage terms. But today’s setup is even more extreme. Silver remains dramatically undervalued relative to gold. And when investors finally realize that silver offers the same monetary protection with far greater upside, the rush into the metal will be furious. And it won’t just be individual investors jumping in. Sovereign wealth funds, central banks and major institutions looking to diversify away from crumbling fiat currencies will flood into the silver market.
The supply is thin, the investment base is small, and when the dam breaks, the price action could be historic. Silver’s breakout isn’t a matter of if. It’s a question of how violently it will happen. First of all, a huge great bear market in equities. So I think that pension funds in particular who’ve been relying on, on equities for asset growth are going to have to readjust quite rapidly. So the old story I think of moving sort of adjusting it from say 60% equities, 40% bonds is probably going to have to go 80% bonds, 20% equities. But the bonds have got to be short duration.
In other words, less than one year. I mean there’s no point in having long duration. You. Well, for a pension fund, you know what you’d, There is a, there is a, if you like, a sort of special situation for pension fund because the pension fund has long term liabilities. What it wants is, it wants to match those liabilities with the maturity of government debt in its portfolio. So it doesn’t actually matter, you know, worry too much about price. What matters is yield. So in that sense I think pension funds will welcome them higher yields. But of course the problem with high yields is it destabilizes the whole financial system.
So you know, they’re going to have to be quite careful I think, throughout all this. So that’s the first thing. Insurance companies are somewhat different. Basically an insurance company is a huge great fund which has two sources of income. The obvious one is premiums, we all know about that. And the other is returns on their investments which would usually be in the form of dividends or coupons, you know, bond coupons, whatever, whatever they’re less interested in if you like, sort of growth stocks and so on. So that I think is almost a simpler case. What they can do is if they have a problem on the, if you like, the, the, the bond side, you know, if they start, if, let us say the, the, the coupon income and so on and so forth, drops on the bond side then up by increasing premiums on, you know, on insurance policies.
So I’m not talking about savings, I’m talking about, you know, insuring. I’m talking about the captive insurance business, if you like, in the sense that, you know, insurance company is insuring you for household goods far, you know, that sort of insurance. I’m not talking about the other sorts, you know, where you, you, you have a policy which pays out on your death or whatever. So they do have these two sources of income. So they, so you, you, you tend to get a cycle, if you like, of, of insurance premiums. You know, they go up and they go down.
The other side of it, of course, is, is, is what they can make on, on their rebuild. That is going to be an interesting one. I’m not quite sure how that will pan out. My guess is that they will get higher yields which actuarially will look actually a lot better because if you get. If, let’s say you buy. Behind the scenes, even the world’s most powerful financial players are preparing for the collapse they publicly refuse to acknowledge. Alistair McLeod reveals that Central banks, while making headlines for record gold purchases, are also quietly positioning themselves in silver.
These institutions understand what’s coming. They see the crumbling foundations of the dollar based system and they’re moving into hard assets before the stampede begins. The major shift happening now is that central banks are no longer simply hedging their bets. They are actively exiting fiat exposure wherever they can without triggering full blown panic. Meanwhile, private wealth funds and institutional investors are following their lead, reallocating into precious metals in a trend that is still largely invisible to the public. They know that once the broader market catches on, silver’s price could skyrocket so fast that entry points will vanish overnight.
Every ounce they quietly accumulate today is a strategic move for tomorrow’s new financial order. As these secretive accumulations build, the window for ordinary investors to get ahead of the curve is narrowing fast. And once it slams shut, the silver price will be on a trajectory few are prepared for. The 10 year US treasury and the yield at the moment is about 4.5%. If that yield rises to say 5.5%, then you’re getting a better return. You would probably hold that to maturity anyway. So you’re not going to lose capital value, as it were, mark to market. Yes, but you can run that through, but you welcome the opportunity, rather like a pension fund of buying 10 year US treasuries with a high yield.
So you don’t worry too much about that side of it because you’re there throughout all the cycles and everything else. They’ve seen these cycles before. This however, is a very, very big one. So I think it could be a real problem for a lot of insurance companies. So that’s the first thing. The other thing is if you’re looking at general portfolio management, adjusting things, everybody’s been taught that the way to manage portfolio risk is to change the balance between your bonds and equities. Well, that ain’t going to work unless you’re sensible enough to actually not have too much duration because that’s where the losses are going to be.
And the bonds, I mean the bond. I can easily see bond yields rising to over 10%. U.S. treasury bond yields rising to over 10%. Think what that does to the value of T bonds. And quite frankly, I can’t see how it stops at 10%. So this is the point about a debt trap. It really is that serious. And as to the pricking of the credit bubble, that basically is going to expose a lot of bad debts in the banking system is also. And over leverage incidentally too, it will also expose all the zombies in the zombie corporations in the economy.
And I think Jay Powell is going to have his work cut out working with Besant, Scott Besant, to try and sort of manage some sort of stability in really what’s going to be a crisis. Because I mean the worst possible thing from the point of view of a Keynesian, which is what we have, or neo Keynesian macro economists is something which they just don’t understand. They think that you get a recession, interest rates go down, prices go down. No they don’t. What we’re looking at is a recession and at the same time rising bond yields, rising interest rates, it’s a real killer.
And that’s the whole point about the biggest credit bubble in history going pop. The conditions for a hundred dollar silver price aren’t some distant fantasy. They’re being built right now, step by step, in full view of anyone willing to see it. Alistair McLeod’s analysis lays it A collapsing dollar, exploding physical demand, institutional flight from fiat and a growing realization that paper markets cannot deliver real assets are all converging at the same time. Unlike past silver rallies where investor excitement alone drove prices higher, this time it’s a perfect storm of economic, political and structural forces. Supply deficits are mounting, mining output is stagnant and industrial demand is surging thanks to sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions are pushing governments to rethink their foreign reserves. And that rethinking increasingly leads them away from dollars and toward tangible assets like gold and silver. Silver’s explosive upside potential isn’t based on hype, it’s based on fundamentals that are growing stronger by the day. When silver finally breaks its long standing shackles, the move toward $100 could be shockingly fast and catch almost everyone off guard. Except those who saw the signs and acted early are obviously systemic issues. I think going across all financial markets under these circumstances, the US large banks are not as leveraged as they are in the EU or in Japan.
And I think that there has already been a pretty good shift away from lending to small and medium sized companies into lending to the government in the form of buying T bills, that sort of thing that’s already I think happened to quite an extent. As far as the EU is concerned, I don’t have the same, quite the same feeling. I think that they have been starving business of credit. Japan I haven’t got much of a clue on, I must admit. But then there’s just such a huge, huge, huge government bond market in Japan and I think that’s really where so much of the commercial banking obligations are already.
And of course they get undermined by rising interest rates. You know, we’ve seen certain amount of disruption there in the past that seems to have died down for the moment. But I suspect that a lot of that is because a lot of carry trade stuff has been basically washed out of the system by if you like, the sort of Trump tantrum, the Trump tariff tantrum. The, the banks are definitely in, in, in both the EU and Japan are both definitely very highly leveraged. I’m talking about the big ones. And of course the other thing we’ve got is we have got the, the over the counter derivatives and also linked to it very, very much because there’s the other side of a lot of risk being laid off.
You’ve got regulated derivatives in the form of futures now. I can see that. I think what’s happened is that when it comes to gold, the big banks have basically got themselves straight. I mean, notice how they now seem to be quite happy, their analysts seem to be quite happy saying we forecast gold going $4,000 or whatever it might be. And while I think it would be wrong to say that the analysts are very much in the pockets of the book, I think they would be quite restricted from that sort of comment if it was very much against the interests of the book.
So I can only conclude that the big banks have basically got their gold position straight. What we don’t know is whether those gold positions are straight on the basis of paper or actual physical. I suspect quite a lot of it is physical and I think quite a lot of the gold that migrated from London and Switzerland over the last two months into Comex warehouses is part of that physical buildup I think for some of the larger bullion banks. But if we do get a crisis in the precious metal derivatives, then that is going to impact I think the entire over the counter derivatives system.
And there we’re talking about potentially trillions. So yeah, I mean it’s very easy to underestimate. I mean we’ve seen the dollar fall on a trade weighted basis by something like what, 10, 11%? I think in April and that fall, you sort of think, well, okay, so what? But think about the quantity of dollars dollar credit in issue. It is absolutely enormous. The consequences of that 10% fall are very, very substantial. Going from what the foreigners actually own in terms of financial assets in the US and on top of that, of course, we also have all the derivatives.
I mean, that’s absolutely enormous. So this is actually quite a serious situation. And the banks, of course, are the intermediaries in the middle of it. The dollar death spiral has already begun, and the forces it’s unleashing will change the financial world forever. As confidence in fiat currencies collapses and the flight to hard assets accelerates, silver is positioned to be the ultimate beneficiary, igniting a historic rally that could send it soaring past $100 and beyond. Those who recognize the signs now stand at the edge of one of the greatest wealth transfers in modern history. The smart money is moving quietly, but when silver breaks free, the rush will be deafening and the opportunity to act will vanish in an instant.
So if you see what’s coming, don’t wait for the headlines. Prepare now. Stay informed, and make sure you’re ready for what’s ahead. And if you want to stay ahead of these historic changes, be sure to subscribe for more critical updates. Remember, none of this is financial advice. Always consult a licensed professional before making any financial decisions.
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