➡ The author discusses the current state of the market, focusing on gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He believes that we are at the end of the fiat monetary era, and that the value of gold and silver will increase while Bitcoin’s value will decrease. He also mentions a silver shortage in China and the low price of real estate when compared to gold. The author encourages investing in gold and silver, and warns against relying on Bitcoin and real estate.
➡ The article discusses the current state of the gold and silver markets, highlighting that they are not as speculative as they were in the past. It suggests that gold and silver are stabilizing and are likely to increase in value as the dollar continues to deteriorate. The article also criticizes Bitcoin, arguing that it is not a tangible asset and will eventually become worthless. The author believes that in the next financial crisis, people will turn to gold and silver, causing their value to rise.

I have a radical idea. If the door swings both ways, we could reverse the particle flow through the gate. We’ll cross the streams. Hey guys, Rav here from The Endgame Investor and as gold and silver came to bounce around, up and down in a very volatile way. The response that I’ve gotten in my community where I actually live, people know me as a silver guy in my community for obvious reasons. Could I be wearing any more clothes? They say to me, well, last time silver crashed like this, it took 30 years or whatever, 31 years for it to recover from 1980 to 2011, obviously.

Now, it took from 2011 to now, what is it, 15 years? 15 years! 15 million years! 15 million years! 15 million years ago! Let’s just say that, a little bit less than 15 years. It’s going to be a year before silver recovers. You’ve got to get back into Bitcoin now. Not back when I never was into Bitcoin. You’ve got to get into tech stocks and whatever and this is when silver is gone and it’s not going to go parabolic again for another many, many years. So, I’ve organized a little slideshow for you to show that this is not the 2011 market.

This is not the 1980 market. This is not 1968. It’s not 1919. This is the end of the fiat monetary era where credit will disappear for a while and all the purchasing power that now is imagined to be in credit actually goes into gold and silver. And the end game ratio will be somewhere around 15 to 1, could be 20, could be 10. And if you want your gold and silver, then check out Miles Franklin. Premiums are very low, even negative in some cases, especially for junk constitutional silver because the refineries are all clogged. They’re dealing with supply from the miners and they can’t take junk silver and refine it.

So, in many cases, coin shops have actually stopped constitutional silver because they cannot get front money for it. As I discussed with Brian Kuzmar in the last interview, check that out and take some of your gold and silver, put it in a dirty man’s safe, use the code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off. And if you have extra money or extra dollars, go to Keith Wiener, monetarymetals.com, monetary-metals.com, link in the description below, and earn some gold and silver yield on your gold and silver deposits. And with that, we’re going to go to the slides.

So, the first thing I want to show you today is that Bitcoin has broken a 10-year uptrend line priced in gold, meaning priced in money. The value of Bitcoin has been going up and down and up and down in wild and crazy ways since 2008, when it was founded. And since about 2017, it has been going gently higher, even at its lows, in gold terms. So, Bitcoin’s purchasing power has been increasing steadily despite the volatility, but it looks like now that trend line has been cut, has been broken to the downside, and I do not believe that it will ever recover again.

I focus a lot on the triple top here from 2021 at around 37.5 ounces of gold. Hit once here, hit once here, hit three times here, and it was marginally broken over here in December 2024. That’s true at about a 42-ounce top, but triple tops that are only marginally broken to the upside, it’s called a triple top reversal, and it is very bearish, and that’s what I said back then, and that’s what I’m saying now. So, this trend line has been broken to the downside. It’s going to bounce probably a little bit here as the trend line is tagged, and you’ll have technical traders that are going to trade this trend line and try to pick a bottom here, but it’s not going to be a significant bounce, I don’t think, and we’re going to head much lower and eventually to zero ounces of gold when the dollar finally dies, and that will be upon the next printing round.

I think that’s when Bitcoin enthusiasts are going to start really getting shocked and scared that once the Fed cuts to zero and we start the next printing round, all of the purchasing power and all of it, but most of it will go into gold and silver and very little into Bitcoin, and the Bitcoin to gold ratio will plummet. The Bitcoin to silver ratio has already broken this trend line pretty decisively. I think we’re even lower now. I think this says 899 ounces to a Bitcoin, 109 ounces of silver. I think we’re below that now, slightly.

So, this trend line has decisively been broken and it’s not going to recover. There might be a slight bounce, but that’s about it. Silver, SLV, sorry, SLV has the second biggest influx of silver ever. This was on the silver crash on what was it, January 30th. I think that’s when it was. And you see here that I don’t have the numbers here, but you can see the blue line and I put a red line where the blue line hits, and you can see we’ve only surpassed that amount of silver influx into the SLV ETF on a daily basis once, and that is during the February 2021 silver squeeze movement.

You can see that spike over here. And so, this is back in 2011. You can see here the last silver top at $50 or $49, and SLV was at an all-time high, meaning speculative interest in silver ETFs was at an all-time high, especially on the retail level. But here, we are nowhere near an all-time high. The amount of interest in SLV has not increased substantially since the 2020 lockdowns of love and reason. So, despite this big influx of silver into SLV, that was mostly bargain hunters coming in and buying SLV for a quick trade, I do not think there is much interest in silver still or SLV.

Despite the high prices, it’s going to have to get a lot higher for the public to start panicking, and it will, and they will, and they will panic into silver, not into Bitcoin. Last time, SPX approached this gold price from this direction, from going from lower to higher, meaning. You can see here I drew a line from where we had around the top here at about 0.80 ounces of gold per S&P 500 unit. This is the spot where the 2008 financial crisis tremors began to happen in gold versus the S&P 500. It was at this resistance zone.

We hit it once, we went back down, we hit it twice, we went back down. And then September 2008 happened, and the price of gold relative to stocks went from what is that number I don’t even see. Let’s just say it’s 0.5, I’m just guessing, to about 1.4. So, it almost tripled. The price of gold relative to stocks almost tripled. And yes, gold was going down during the 2008 financial crisis, but it was going up relative to everything else. I mean, despite the fact that the dollar was strengthening relative to gold, all the purchasing power, except for the dollar, was funneling itself into gold.

And this time, it’s going to head even higher because the dollar is not going to benefit from the next printing round, as it did in the 2008 QE1 QE2 Bonanza. You can see the same thing in silver. This is silver. You can see the resistance zone happen at this silver to S&P 500 ratio, meaning the S&P 500 priced in silver was at about this level on the eve of the great financial crisis. So, we’re right there. It’s coming. It’s coming because it’s going to happen in the bank. It’s going to happen in the banking system.

There’s going to be something in the plumbing. It’s already cooking, and once it does, they’re going to cut to zero, and the dollar is going to die. We are going to die. Shanghai silver stocks dip below 500 tons for the first time since what is it, 2013, 2015? I don’t know. But we have here the silver supplies in Shanghai continue to drop. They are now 493.665 tons. Once this goes to zero, I don’t know what happens to Shanghai silver. You could have a very serious short squeeze there. There are premiums in China already way higher than in New York.

There is a silver shortage going on in China right now. Real estate near 1980 lows priced in gold. I bet you didn’t know that. So, the average price, or the median price rather, of a new house sold in the U.S. is now 90 ounces of gold, meaning you could have bought gold at any time other than 1980 itself, other than this tiny little spike here, and you would have done better than a real estate investment. And yes, real estate, you can rent out. That’s true. And gold, you can also rent out with monetary metals, monetary-metals.com.

Check the link in the description below if you want to earn a yield on your money in money terms. But anyway, if you had bought gold, even without the yield of having a renter, having a tenant, gold is only just storage money and insurance money, which is much less than the upkeep of a house and all of the headaches you have, trying to keep your tenants happy and keep your house rented. So, gold is a much better divestment than real estate is an investment, and that is proven here very clearly. Gold open interest near 20-year low, and this is the main reason.

Let me just move my face over here. This is the main reason why I say this is not the market of 2011. It’s not the market of 1980, rather. This is a very minimally speculative market. There’s something going on in a more fundamental level in gold and silver right now, and this is the proof of that. We are now at 400,000 contracts open in gold futures open interest for the first time since bear market bottom 2015. Or you could say here, we’re briefly below it in 2016, fine. But basically, this area of open interest is at a bear market bottom level.

So, that’s pretty extreme. The only other times where we touch that level since bear market bottom was in the beginning of 2016, the very, very beginning of the bull market that we are currently now still in, and in the beginning of 2017 over here, and at the beginning of, end of 2018, beginning of 2019, when this real move started to get underway and we broke the six-year trend, the six-year trading range that we broke in 2019. So, you can see here that these were all major lows in the gold price. Price has not gotten anywhere close to that since, and if open interest is at 400,000 now, you can bet that we are somewhere around a bottom, if not in time, then in price, meaning it could take a few more weeks for the price to stabilize and we begin its uptrend again, but open interest is not going to get much lower than this.

So, we’re at a low here, or around a low, if not in time, then in price, in gold. 140,000 contracts erased in 10 days. 10 trading, I don’t think you’d think this has ever happened, except maybe once in the 1970s, could be, but not in the modern era, this has never happened before. You can see here that the high in open interest was about $542,000, no, sorry, $542,000 contracts, excuse me, but over here in late January and 10 trading days later, we are at 400,952 contracts. This is unprecedented, this is pretty extreme.

That means all the speculators are out, or almost all the speculators are out of gold futures and there is plenty of room for a massive run going forward with increased open interest. All the averages are intact and the weekly close is steady. This is gold prices on a weekly candle chart, and you can see here that on a weekly closing basis, despite the surge and the crash that is freaking all the gold bugs out and destabilizing emotions here, you can see on a weekly closing basis, we’re pretty even, we haven’t moved much at all.

The weekly closing is about $5,000, that’s where we are today. So, more accurately, we’re coiling here on a weekly candle basis. The gold price is stabilizing, it is not crashing on a weekly basis, and we are going to head higher pretty soon as the dollar continues to deteriorate. Here’s another reason why this is not the 2011 silver market, this is not the 1980 silver market, this is something completely different. You can see here that merchants, silver merchants, whether they need silver for their industry or they sell silver directly and are trying to hedge, they are not hedging.

The theory is that they cannot hedge. For whatever reason, there is not enough liquidity in this silver futures market, and I think that has to do with backwardation relative to London silver prices, which you’ll see in the next few slides is even more extreme than it was in October when it hit a new record, excluding 1980, I believe. So, you see here that the net silver shorts over here at the extreme right of the chart is at about 18,000 contracts, and the last time we were at this level you could see the silver prices were about 20, right, at these net short positions.

Merchants would be short because they have to hedge their inventory, and here you can see that we are at an all-time low in gross short positions. This line is the gross short position. It’s at about 25,000 contracts, 23,000 contracts, and the only other time we were at this low was at this level at about $20 silver per ounce. This is not the 2011 market. 2011 you can see here. We’re at a fair level of shorts. It wasn’t anything close to where it is now. This is a totally different situation. Gold is nearing backwardation.

So, when the red line goes above the blue line, that is gold backwardation between London and New York. It is not forward curve inversion, which I also call, which I call backwardation primarily, but people use the word backwardation to describe the difference between the London and the New York prices. So, I’ll just use that word. So, you can see here when the red line has been approaching the blue line, these are exact mirror images because this is one price minus the London minus the New York price, and this is the New York minus London price, so they’d be mirror images.

Once you have the red line above the blue line, then the situation that is now in silver where bullion banks and merchants cannot hedge, it will mimic itself in the gold market once these lines cross, and they are getting there. I have a radical idea. The door swings both ways. We could reverse the particle flow through the gate. We’ll cross the streams. Excuse me, Egon. You said crossing the streams was bad. There’s definitely a very slim chance we’ll survive. Now, you can see the silver backwardation between London and New York is almost at the level it was in October 9th, October 9th, when silver first crossed $50, and if the red line is above the blue line, prices have to rise until this situation is alleviated, and you can see as the dollar price of silver rose, that means that silver fell in dollar terms.

That’s this line over here. I think it’s gray or green or whatever it is. So, as this line went up, the backwardation that was resolving itself over here reasserted itself with a vengeance, meaning lower silver prices cannot be sustained by the market in these conditions, which is why we are not in 2011 and we are not in 1980, not at all. That’s all I have to say about that. Silver is going to take a while to stabilize perhaps a few days, perhaps a few weeks, not much longer than that, and as gold finds its footing and now it is past $5,000 again, silver will follow or maybe it will even lead, and as we get into the final financial crisis that leads to the Fed cutting to zero and spitting out dollars into the banking system, people are going to start to panic, not into Bitcoin, not into tech stocks, not into anything else but gold, and the price of everything is going to continue to fall in terms of gold, in terms of silver, most of all the price of Bitcoin, which will fall to zero in the next financial crisis, zero ounces of gold.

It might be worth a few bucks, but dollars won’t be worth anything, so it won’t even matter. Why is that? Because Bitcoin isn’t a thing. It does not exist. It is a code that opens up a safe that leads to nothing. You’ve got nothing! Nothing! The most that it could possibly be is the key to someone else’s fantasy of being rich, and so when they sell it to you, you end up with nothing, and they end up with dollars, which also will be nothing, but for now they’re still worth about one five thousandth of an ounce of gold, which is why they are worth anything at all, and once they are not, the dollar will not be able to be used in any kind of trade for anything, from buying a stick of gum to buying a nuclear arsenal.

And that’s comforting. No!
[tr:trw].

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