➡ The world is undergoing a significant shift, referred to as the New World Order, which is not a conspiracy theory anymore but a reality acknowledged by global leaders at Davos. This change means the old rules and systems are no longer applicable and a new set of rules is emerging. This shift is likened to a rupture, indicating a break that can’t be fixed, leading to a completely different world order. Key figures like Mark Carney and Frederick Mertz have highlighted this change, emphasizing that it’s happening at a rapid pace and will significantly impact the global economy and politics.
➡ The article discusses the views of five influential global leaders on the current state of international relations. They all agree that the old system of global cooperation is failing, but they have different ideas about what should replace it. The article also highlights three key pillars of the global system: trade, security, and trust, all of which are currently in a state of flux. The author emphasizes that trust in international institutions is particularly low, which could lead to a breakdown in global cooperation.
➡ The world seems chaotic due to the convergence of three long-term cycles: political revolutions (every 250 years), financial revolutions (every 80 years), and technological revolutions (every 50 years). These cycles are not random but recurring patterns that help us understand the past and predict the future. Currently, four potential paths for the future are being considered: values-based realism, power-centric model, nationalist self-interest sovereignty model, and the Global South model. As the old system ends, the future appears fragmented, and the traditional financial playbook of owning stocks for growth and bonds for safety may no longer work, leading to a shift towards resilience over efficiency.
➡ The financial world is shifting towards real assets like commodities and cryptocurrencies, which can’t be manipulated or printed. This change is due to the old financial system’s rules no longer being applicable. The old ways of building wealth through stocks and bonds may lead to disappointment, as the new focus is on commodities and assets like Bitcoin. This new system is being built on trustless, unprintable assets.

The start of the New World Order isn’t coming. It’s already here. For years, talking about a New World Order would get you called out as a conspiracy theorist. But not anymore. The most powerful people on the planet just stood on stage at Davos and said it out loud. They said the old rules are dead. They told us what broke. They told us why it can’t be fixed and what’s replacing it. Now, after decades of building companies and investing through these exact kind of shifts, I can tell you this changes everything and what no one is connecting yet.

That’s the part you can’t miss. So let’s go. All right, let’s jump right into it. I got a lot of data to get through with you today and everything’s changed. And we’re going to talk about how it applies to you and our investing framework moving forward. But first of all, let’s go back to the New World Order, which is sound like a conspiracy. You’ve heard that for years. Of course, if you’re watching this channel, you maybe have believed in it. And however, it’s no longer a conspiracy, it’s no longer a part that is trying to maybe be explained away.

As a matter of fact, the world’s elite, the people that run the world, the world leaders, they were in Davos at the World Economic Forum and they just told us. They said the quiet part out loud. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. This unraveling at breathtaking pace. This new world of great powers is being built on power. The old order is not coming back. Maybe one of the most influential globalists. I’m talking about Mark Carney. We’re going to talk a lot about him today. But he used the word rupture.

He said the, the New World Order is ruptured. What is, what does rupture mean? Ruptured is, means that it’s broken in a way that it can’t be fixed. And what comes next is, is a new set of rules where the world will work completely different on the other side. Now what we’re talking about is a system collapse. Now a system collapse isn’t chaos. A system collapse just means the old system collapses and a new system replaces this. Now we’ve had different specific systems and really the one that we’re operating in right now has been in place since About World War II, the rules based order.

Now we can see in this chart right here I have up on the screen where it started right here after World War II. We’re going back to 1945 and this is a very pivotal point. We’re going to come back to this later. But for now you can see in 1945 after World War II we had the Bretton woods agreement. So the entire world got into one global monetary system. We had the creation of the un, the UN Charter, the World bank, the imf. And so this new world order was put put in place right there. Then we had NATO was formed in 1949.

And so this was the foundation of this new world that lasted until about 1989. We can see then things continued. We saw 1971, Bretton Woods. The agreement, the global monetary system agreement that was put in place was shattered. The end of gold happened right here. 1981 is when we said this sort of ended is where the Berlin Wall fell. Why is that consequential? Well, we can see as we went from this rules based world into a unipolar moment. Why was it unipolar? Well, because at this point the USSR collapsed. The USSR was America’s number one adversary or opponent or competitor in the global landscape.

And at this time China was really kind of inconsequential. But that started changing. So 1991, Soviet Union collapsed. End of history. 1995 the World Trade Organization was set up which then brought China into the global economy. The global factory. 2001 was China’s WTO entry. And that’s really where a lot of the jobs started being shipped from Europe and America over to China started being building China up. And then 2008 had this great financial crash. Okay, all of this led from a rules based order to a unipolar moment. And now what we can see since 2008 we had the global financial crash and it’s been one crisis after another crisis which continues to erode away the system.

We can see here we have the Russia in 2014, Russia annexes Crimea. 2016 we had Brexit. Really Brexit. Trump being elected is really one of the key pivotal points in one of the charts that I’m going to show you a little bit later where I talk about political revolution cycles, 250 year cycles. We’ll go back to that. 2019, US China trade war started escalating. And this is really where all of this started eroding. And now down here where we have just since over the last four to five years is what’s now the great rupture as Mark Carney framed it.

The rupture. Things have broken and they’re never going back. This is the multi polar Eruption. Okay, so the whole world was built on a set of assumptions, on a set of agreements that are no longer here. But I want to talk specifically about five different people who went to Davos and told us what they see happening and where things are going now. I picked five. There was, I don’t even know, hundreds of interviews that I’ve gone through. So let’s start with number one. We’re going to go to Mark Carney. Mark Carney might be one of the most influential people in the world of the globalists.

We could argue that Trump might be more influential, but Mark Carney is as connected as it comes. He’s the Prime Minister of Canada right now, but he’s previously run the bank of Canada. Before that he ran the bank of England. He’s been 15 years in the heart, the center of global finance. Now what he said was something that everybody should be paying attention to again. He said we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. So what he’s saying is the rules based order is not just transforming or optimizing a rupture. It broke and it cannot be repaired anymore.

He said that the rules based order is fading, it’s disappearing, it’s gone. He said that. I think this was a quote from Vaclav Havel. He said that the world has been living within a life. What we’ve seen has been a lie and they’ve been pretending the old system still works when everyone knows that it doesn’t work anymore. Now what he believes the world is going to go into is something he’s calling a value based realism. We’re going to come back to that. And one of the other most influential people, one of the top five at the World Economic Forum and Davos was Frederick Mertz.

All right, now he’s the Chancellor of Germany again, Very influential. Germany is sort of the economic engine of Europe. And Germany was the poster child for this rules based order that we’ve been in for the last 80 years. Why were they the poster child of the rules based order? Well, because they’re an export economy, right? They’re the manufacturing center of Europe. They export everything. But they were also dependent on everybody. They shut down their own energy. They were dependent on Russia for energy. They were dependent on the US for protection, for defense. Frederick said, quote, the old order is unraveling at a breathtaking pace.

Meaning, like, wow, we didn’t expect it to unravel this quickly. Like, things are changing very, very quickly. So fast that we don’t even know what to do. Now what’s interesting is from Germany they benefit the most from this rules based order. And now they’re saying, or their leader is saying that that world is completely on. He said the old order is unraveling at a breathtaking pace. All right, let’s go to the next one. Number three, Alexander Stubbing. Alexander Stubb is the president of Finland. All right, now this maybe is the clearest framework for what’s actually happening in this rules based order.

And really it’s multipolar disorder. That’s what he said. It’s a multipolar disorder. Not a new order. Not a new order, a disorder. Their words are very important. They tell us what to think. And I take them at their word. He said that the liberal world order is giving way to raw power politics. Raw power. What does that mean? He said that the west, the US and the west is trying to preserve that power. And the East, China is trying to build new power. Now the south, we’re going to talk more about that. The south, the south is up for grabs.

And he compared this moment in time that we’re in right now to 1918 to 1945, which started this rules based order in 1989 when the USSR, the US’s main adversary, collapsed. That’s what he says we’re going through right now. All right, let’s go to number four, the fourth most important person there. Now these are not ranked in the top five order. They’re just top five. But we have he Lifan, now he is the vice premier of China. Now he was there to defend multilateralism, all right? He talked about the need for community and how we should all work together.

He warned that, quote, the, the law of the jungle should not be the new order. That’s what we have right now. We’re the strong bully the weak. Now take from that what you want. Was that directed at the United States, some other country, or maybe they are projecting that on others because of course China isn’t exactly famous for playing by the rules by any means. But what is, what is he saying? What does China want do they now want to do? They want to be the ones defined what these new rules based orders are. And then finally, number five, we’ll go to Donald Trump again, these are not ranked in order.

But he had a very different message. Of course, he’s the President of the United States. He’s been here for a long time and he had a very different message for everybody. He didn’t talk about international cooperation, he didn’t talk about that. What he Said is that America is the engine of the global economy. He said that the better America does, the better everybody else does. So what everyone else should do is just work with the United States because if the US does better, they’re all going to do better. But what he really did is he went and said, boom, I’m putting a stake in the heart of globalization.

Globalization is dead. We are here nationals. We are here, America first. And we’re done subsidizing every other nation. We’re done paying for their defense. We’re done paying for their tariff or for their imports. We’re done subsidizing their pharmaceutical costs. We’re done with all of that. All right? Now it’s time for everyone to pay their fair share. Now, whether you agree with what he said or not doesn’t matter. It confirms the thesis that we’re talking about and breaking down and looking into now, the US isn’t trying to save the rules based order. He made that clear. They’re not trying to save it.

They don’t care about that anymore. As a matter of fact, they’re the ones that are rejecting it. The US Is rejecting it. The US is actively dismantling the rules based order. Okay, so those are the top five people that matter. They’re the biggest decision makers, policymakers that were at Davos. And they told us exactly where we are, why we’re going there. But they also talked about what’s coming next. All right, so that was just a glimpse of what five of the top leaders around the world are saying. Again, I didn’t put them in any order, but they are some of the most influential when it comes to affecting global policy.

They all come from different countries, they all have different ideologies, they all have different interests, but they all agree on one thing. What they agree on is that the old system, the rules based order, the old new world order is dead. It’s gone, it’s dying, it’s fading. Or as Mark Carney said, it’s ruptured. It cannot be repaired. Now the difference is though, they completely disagree on what comes next. And that’s where it starts getting fun now. Carney, Mark Carney, he wants a coalition of the willing. He wants everybody to agree and let’s just be friends and let’s align with people that we have shared values with.

We have Mertz from Germany. He wants Europe to be strong again. Of course, if they can get their military and their energy policy in place. Stubb sees a multipolar world and he sees that we should all just Work together, but it may be chaotic. China, of course, wants to lead the new multilateral world order. Trump wants bilateral deals. Now, the bilateral deals are based on American leverage, not multilateral bilateral deals. If it’s good for me, good for you. Let’s work that out. And this is not a transition to a new system, all right? This is a completely different system, and that’s five different visions.

And the interesting thing is that they’re all competing at the same time. And that right there, that’s the real story. All right? Now, to understand what’s going on, but more importantly, to understand why and where we’re going, we have to understand the mechanics of are more important than the politics we have. You know, we’ve heard from the leaders. We heard what they said. We’ve heard their political positioning. But we need to go deeper. We need to understand the mechanics that are underneath this. We have to understand what’s underlying below this, because when the underlying mechanics break, that’s what causes this to happen.

Not politics, not speeches. And so in order to understand that, there’s three underlying pillars that we have to understand. Number one, the pillar that holds everything up, Trade, global trade, global cooperation. Number two. Pillar number two is security. Right. We talked about the US Providing that. Now they don’t want to anymore. And then I believe the most important third pillar is trust. Trust has to be breaking that up. Okay, let’s break this down so we can see the global trade is fragmenting. Right now, global trade growth has been averaging 6% a year. Amazing growth from 1990 all the way till 2008, 6% a year.

But since 2008, it’s only been averaging 1.5% ever since. You can see it’s completely dropping off of a cliff now in this time, the world trade has not done any major deals. There’s no cooperation, no trade deals happening. And as a matter of fact, it’s going the opposite direction, which is why we see it absolutely plummeting down right here. We can see the trade restrictions stopping global trade have been increasing. In 2009, we had 300. By 2024, we have over 3,000 trade restrictions. On top of that, we have tariffs, we have sanctions. In 2010, the US had 20 sanctions, 20 countries sanctioned.

By 2024, the US has 40 countries sanctioned. You can see. And this starts slowing this system down. That’s why we’ve gone from 6% all the way down to 1% growth. You can see the trade didn’t just slow down, it got weaponized. And that’s the Breakdown of trust. Okay? Then on top of that, we have the defense. And so we can see that the US has been supplying defense for the world post World War II. The US provides security while everyone else gets to grow. The US spends the money, and all the other countries get to reinvest into their own countries.

But the problem is the math changed. Now under this deal, NATO, which is the agreement that the everyone that Russia was basically put into, the NATO members were supposed to spend 2% of their GDP, the gross domestic product, 2% on national defense. But they didn’t. As a matter of fact, most of the countries were spending only about 1%, maybe a little bit more than 1%. However, that’s all changed now. The world realizes they have to pay their fair share. Trump has made that abundantly clear. Now we can see Germany is now spending 3.55% of GDP, well above the 2% they’re supposed to.

Poland is up to 4%, double what they’re supposed to be paying. We can see Japan has completely blown past all of their defense spending. And we can see that because the U.S. security guarantee is just not there anymore. It’s not what it used to be. We used to patrol the seas. We used to make sure everybody could freely trade. And that is done now. And now these countries are starting to reinvest. This is changing the power structure of the world. So really what this is, is a re. Nationalization of security. Each country wants to have their own security, and it’s all being done in real time.

Okay, and number three, what we can see, what I think is probably the biggest one, is what we here have here. Institutional trust, multilateral institutional trust. And this chart, whenever it’s going down and to the right, that’s not a good thing. I think this is the biggest problem of all. Of the three pillars that hold this whole world order up, the trust is the biggest problem. All right, Institutional trust, the un, the imf, the World bank, the wto, the who, all of them have completely failed us. We can see that surveys of international institutions has dropped from more than 60% in 2000 to less than 40% today, completely plunging.

Why is that? Well, because the banking system collapsed. We don’t trust the banking system, we don’t trust the central banks. We have the populist waves in Brexit. We can see the governments aren’t listening to the people. Democracy has failed. Of course, we had the COVID pandemic where we saw what happened through there. On and on and on. Global trust continues to fall apart. And the Problem with trust is that it’s very fragile. Once trust is gone, it’s almost impossible to get back. Now if you don’t trust the referees, the un, the imf, the World bank, the wto, the who, if we don’t trust them, the referees, then it’s probably going to stop playing the game at all.

Or at least stop playing by the rules. Why play by the rules if the referees aren’t even paying attention? Or if they’re corrupt? Now look, these aren’t political opinions, these are structural failures that we’re dealing with, okay? And then we want to look at why is this all happening right now? Because it seems like the world is crazier than it’s ever been, right? Like, I mean, all of we haven’t been alive that long and most of us really only think about a 50 year window regard, you know, depending on how long we’ve been alive. So why is the world so crazy right now and why is it happening right now? It’s a question I get asked all the time.

Now if you’ve been watching my content for any period of time, you’ve probably seen me use this chart before. Because what we’re seeing is not random. As a matter of fact, it’s something that we see over and over and over. It’s a pattern, it’s a cycle. I love cycles because cycles help us understand the past and then it helps us understand what’s coming from the future. And once you understand what this chart is showing us, you can’t unsee it. Let me break it down right? I’ve been talking about these long term cycles for a long time.

There’s three cycles that change the world. We have political cycles, we have financial revolution cycles, and we have technological revolution cycles. And they all are converging at the same time. What’s interesting is they all work on different time frames. Let me break them down. First of all, we have these political revolution cycles and they happen on a 250 year time frame. You can see it right here. 1550, 1517, 1532, Protestant Reformation. Here we had the Industrial revolution and then it peaked here again. We had the American Revolution right there. And here we are where the cycle is converging right here.

Okay, that’s the political revolution cycle. I’m not going to spend a lot of time on that, but let’s dive in. What I think is more important, the financial revolution cycle, this runs on an 80 year cycle. Now we can see, this is the orange line right here. We had the South Sea Mississippi bubble, right Here we had the financial chaos after the revolution up to the 1780s. Fast forward the 1860s. We had the Civil War, we had issue with the greenbacks. Abraham Lincoln issued Greenbacks. The entire monetary system change broke down. 1930s and 40s, we had Bretton woods, we had Bretton Woods.

The entire global financial system changed. And that was 1944. And if we add 80 years from 1944 to 1980, we find ourselves right here. Okay, so we have the 250 year political revolution cycle converging with the 80 year financial revolution cycle. Ray Dalio talks about the long term credit cycle. And then we have what I think is the most powerful, which is this green one. It’s a 50 year technological revolution cycle. Every 50 years we get a new technological revolution, not a new piece of technology. A cluster of technologies that changes the financial system, the way that we work, interact.

And this is what changes the world. We can see you go in here we had the industrial revolution, 1771, we had the steam engines, railways, 1829, we had steel, electricity, 1875, oil, automobiles, mass production, 1908, we had telecom, microprocessors, personal computers, et cetera. Right here in 1871. And then right here again, you see 50 years later, another technological revolution. This is rewiring. Who controls information, it rewires who controls money, who controls the choke points, AI, decentralized networks, Bitcoin, all of this right now. This is why it’s so crazy right here, right now. Now if cycles help us understand what’s happening, how we got here, they help us understand what’s coming next.

Plus we have the political leaders that are trying to jockey for position. What do we see is coming next? If the old system is ending, what’s going to replace it? Not a new order, not a new set of rules. Maybe there’s four competing visions. And maybe these four competing visions are all going to happen at the exact same time. All right, so path number one is the values based realism. And this is really broken out here by Stubb and Carney. This is their model. And they’re basically saying that the old institutions, they’re broken. And what they’re saying is that, you know, we don’t throw everything away.

We don’t want to. We don’t want to start from zero. How about we just build flexible coalitions? And what we do is we partner up and we work with countries that share our values. Now this is not multipolar or global or this is small partnerships. So this might be like Canada, the uk, New Zealand, the Nordics, right? So we align on basics. Like we share, like a similar rule of law, democracy, free markets. So this is kind of what they’re pushing for. Now, Carney said if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu. Hmm, very interesting.

What he’s saying is trust. If we can’t trust to be equal with you, then we believe you’re going to take advantage of us. Now, maybe this has about a 25% of success. This is probably not what’s going to happen. All right, now the second one that we have is over here. This is a power centric model. This is power competition. All right, so this is the US this is China right here. Now, this is built on power. It’s built on strength, it’s built on force, by might. Whoever has the might is right, something like that. And this is about transactional alliances based on interest but not values.

So, hey, I need this, you need that. Well, we don’t like each other, but we’ll agree to trade, to share. Now, in this type of agreement, each block would control its own supply chains. I don’t trust you, you don’t trust me. So I’m going to control everything internally. We can still trade for what we need, but I’m going to have my own payment system. I’m going to have my own rules. The US has the dollar and the military. China has manufacturing. They have a massive internal market. This model is maybe one of the most likely, maybe a 35% chance of succeeding, but it’s a very unstable model.

Okay, then we also have path number three. This is a nationalist self interest sovereignty model right here. This is a Trump or Modi from India. Maybe this model, the leaders are basically saying, look, we’re going to put our country first, period. That’s it. Our country first. Now, we could get bilateral deals, but not multilateral agreements. Meaning like, hey, we’re going to work between us to give each other good deals. And then in this type of a deal, then each country would use their own tariffs and do bilateral deals with tariffs to protect their own industries. And the reasoning behind this is because each leader is basically faced with a situation that they have to talk to their citizens about.

If globalization isn’t working, if globalization isn’t working for citizens, then why should we keep playing? So cooperation collapses. And then finally, the fourth one that we have is this Global South. This is the wild card. We don’t know what’s going to happen. This is up for grabs right now. We’re talking about India. We’re Talking about Brazil, we’re talking about Indonesia, we’re talking about Saudi Arabia. Now each of these countries, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Brazil, they’re asking themselves, man, why do I always have to choose between the US and China? Right? India’s like, man, I want to get my oil from countries, but the US doesn’t like those countries.

But I would like to build the iPhone for the US and why am I always having to choose? Why do I have to choose between those? So they’re working on maybe setting up their own infrastructure, new development banks, alternative payment structures, payment systems. You’ve heard about the BRICS. Now this represents about 6 billion people. This one has probably the lowest probability of success, only about a 15% success. So that’s what’s shaping up right now. But here’s the thing, what are we going to do to move forward to protect ourselves and build wealth in this new environment? What do we do with our money? If the old system is ending, if the future is extremely fragmented, then what do we do now? The basic playbook that’s worked for us for the last 60 years in this rules based order is own stocks for growth, own bonds for safety and cash flow.

That’s worked very well. I’ve been talking about for quite a while now how that has been failing and now you start to understand why. It worked because the system was stable. It worked because the rules were clear. The old world equaled efficiency. Supply chains just in time, supply chains. We just globally trade and I get you what you need and you give me what we need. But that ended. The new world is not about efficiency. The new world is about resilience. That’s why the US is, is re industrializing at a rapid rate now, right now, trying to build up its national strategic interests.

Resilience. The old world was about financial assets, it was about stocks, it was about bonds. All of those things are promises. But when one of the three pillars is trust, that’s gone. Then that old world, that old financial world, that’s gone. The new financial world is built on real assets, things that can’t get printed, things that don’t require trust. Like what? Well, like commodities, like critical minerals, like silver, copper, lithium, nickel, like gold, like silver, like bitcoin. Things that can’t be printed, things that cannot be manipulated. The question is what assets are durable when the system fragments, that’s the question that everybody has to ask.

So when you’re thinking about how do we survive in this? Regardless of what model prevails, the rules based order didn’t collapse. It just expired. And I showed you that right on cue when all three cycles lined up. The danger now isn’t chaos, it’s pretending the old rules still apply. One of the things I say the most I love is the story of Einstein. I’m not going to tell you the whole story, but he said that the answers change. So the answer’s changed here. The world changed the old way to build wealth. The old world of efficiency and financial assets, that’s gone.

If you still think that stocks and bonds and promises are the way to build wealth, you’re going to be disappointed. The new world is real assets. Think commodities. It’s a commodity boom. It’s commodity sector. I think Bitcoin fits in there as well. Bitcoin’s a commodity as well. Things that can’t get printed, things that don’t require trust. That’s where we’re going to go as this new system builds out. Anyway, that’s what I got for you today. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed this. Make sure that you subscribe to the channel. Let me know. Drop some comments down below. And that’s what I got to your success.

I’m out.
[tr:tra].

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