Triple Digit Silver Just Ahead Dollar Monkeys | Rafi Farber

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Summary

➡ Rafi Farber talks about how silver and gold prices are rising, but there’s little activity in the coin market and no significant demand for silver ETFs. The increase in silver prices is mainly due to large investors in New York, as silver supplies in the COMEX continue to grow. However, once the silver to S&P 500 ratio changes noticeably, people may start moving from mainstream stocks to gold and silver. This report suggests that the dollar is collapsing, which could lead to silver becoming a primary form of exchange again.

➡ The demand for silver is currently low, both in physical markets and ETFs, due to its slow price increase. However, the silver squeeze movement has significantly boosted ETF demand. The price of silver is expected to rise significantly once demand in these markets picks up. Additionally, the number of ounces of gold required to buy a house has dropped, suggesting that the value of gold is increasing. The same trend is expected for silver. The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a downturn, which could have serious implications. Lastly, the price of gold and silver is predicted to rise significantly in the near future.

 

Transcript

This is the first time we are seeing Silver Stacks move up in the COMEX and the price also go vertical with it. I don’t know. Great plan, Bart. Hey, when you look this good, you don’t have to know anything. Hey guys, Raf here from The Endgame Investor and it’s time for a Silver Report. It’s time to fight dirty. Gold is near $4,000 today. Silver is at $48.50. He’s still relatively dead. The gold-silver ratio is still at like 80 something to 1 and remember in 2011 it went down to 30 to 1. If we get anywhere near there, I think that means that Silver is in the triple digits.

100, 200, I don’t even remember what it was. I don’t remember the math, but it’s a lot higher than it is now. So really, nothing is actually happening in Silver. And I’ll prove that to you with the ETFs and the physical markets. I just had an interview with Brian Kuzma of Commercial Rare Coins and Precious Metals who say that the spreads in physical markets are wide apart, which means there is almost no activity in the coin market. The stackers have not woken up. Those that have already stacked have already stacked are all stacked in and the new people aren’t joining it.

Maybe a little bit of a trickle, but nothing big. So no ETF demand, no physical demand. Silver is only running on one of three cylinders. And the only cylinder that’s running is the big whales or those that are stacking silver in New York. That’s because the silver supplies in New York on the COMEX keep climbing and they do not stop. And the only way that silver supplies are going down in the ETF, 17 million ounces have been drained from SLV over the past three days. The only way that happens is if some whales are taking silver out of the ETF because of lack of demand from retail that don’t want to buy the ETF because they’re not really paying attention.

And why aren’t they paying attention? Because the AI bubble and all the other bubbles are still kind of bubbly and they still look at their portfolios and they say, wow, I can buy so much with all these amount of dollars in my portfolios. But once the silver to S&P 500 ratio starts to climb or fall, if you have it the other way, basically once the Dow and the S&P get cheaper in terms of silver noticeably, then you’ll start to see people panic out of mainstream stocks and bubble stocks and go into gold and silver that hasn’t even started yet.

We have a long way to go. Let’s go through the slides before we do. This silver report is brought to you by me because I bring things. That is my substack, endgameinvestor.substack.com. Check it out where we go through the plumbing and we go through the logic of money so that you can get through this end game with your mind intact, understanding philosophically at the very core what money is. And once you do and I help with that, then no amount of volatility can knock you off this slide or this seesaw or whatever it is that we’re on.

Roller coaster. I don’t know. We’re going in for another one. Oh yeah, we got this buddy. This is a good idea. Elliot looks a little drained. This is also brought to you by the dirty man safe. Get your gold and silver at miles Franklin and then take it and put some of it at least in a dirty man safe somewhere on your property and don’t tell anybody. Use code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off and if you want to buy your gold and silver at miles Franklin, just mention the endgameinvestor at checkout and you can help support this channel.

The first shot I want to share with you today is something that I’m covering at the endgameinvestor at substack and it shows how much of an idiot I am and how I’m so wrong and I don’t know anything because the daily repo volume is now over 100% of available reserves. There are about 2.966 trillion dollars in reserves available and there are over 3 trillion dollars being traded in the repo markets right now every night. So that means that more dollars are being traded every night than actually exists to be traded. How is this possible? I don’t know.

I don’t know. Could be the numbers are off. Could be that something else is happening that I don’t really understand yet but you know what? Gold is at 4000. Silver is at 4850. When you look this good you don’t need to know anything. Hey when you look this good you don’t have to know anything. But anyway more about that on the endgameinvestor on substack and I will try to figure out the mystery here but either way this is not this is not going to continue. I don’t know how much longer it has but if we go to the COMEX what is going on with COMEX silver? This is the silver supply going back to 1971 looking for any kind of pattern that can explain what is going on with the silver supplies.

You see here the spikes since the beginning of 2024 from about 8,000 tons to now 16,543. The silver supplies in New York have basically doubled in two years. That is that scary and all this silver is going offline because a lot of it is going into cold storage not for sale. There’s some for sale. There is a good amount of silver for sale against contracts and the registered supplies but a lot of it is ineligible meaning it’s not for sale. These are humongous whale stackers. We don’t know exactly who they are but they are piling up huge 5,000 ounce bars and we don’t know why.

But if we look at these little rectangles and I made them thin so you can see what exactly they are bracketing here. This is the 1980 run from the end of 1979 to the beginning of 1980. That is the big spike over here. What was happening in the silver supplies they were kind of going up. They were going up appreciably but nothing compared to what they are now. So there wasn’t much of a move there because in 1971 or 1970 silver supplies were much higher than they were in 1970 or 1980 in New York.

So not that much of a correlation there but here we see that as silver supplies were going up from about 1980 to 1993 you can see that the silver price was falling in a descending triangle from about the beginning here in 1983 to 1993 and around here is when what’s his name Buffett that guy what’s his name Warren something. He stood for delivery of silver around here and then the silver supply started draining but there wasn’t much move in the silver price. We don’t see much of a correlation between the silver price and the silver stacks in the COMEX vaults.

Same thing in 2011 there wasn’t much of a correlation at all. You can see here the move from 2010 to 2011 from it looks like about 12 to 15 dollars or whatever it was to 50 in a matter of months not much movement in the silver supplies here. They went slightly down but nothing alarming and here is where we see what happened from 2020 from the lockdowns those glorious medical miracles that saved all of our lives. A medical miracle. You were a medical marvel. The doctors said your mother could dad. I don’t want to hear about it.

Really. Well not right now. We have given Pfizer and other companies a great deal of money 14 billion dollars. These vaccines are also very safe. No serious side effects. Gold standard of safety. To 2022 silver was going down the silver price was going down and the silver suppliers were going down but here is something that we haven’t ever seen before and that is a doubling of the silver supply with a more than doubling of the price. So this is the first time we are seeing silver stacks move up in the COMEX and the price also go vertical with it.

First time we’re seeing that. What does that mean? It means something new is happening here. What is happening? Well the dollar is collapsing and that’s going to lead to silver becoming money once again because once credit collapses there’s no other way to exchange other than with money itself because everything else is a derivative. But where is the demand coming from? Is it the ETFs? Not really. Here is a close up. We’re going to go into the farther out zoomed out chart in a second so you’ll see this isn’t much of a climb.

It is a climb. It’s not much of a climb but you can see here the last three days we’ve had these three bars over here. If you total this up it’s about 17 million ounces in three days have been drained from the ETF. 17 million ounces go out of the ETF go back into the vaults either in London or in New York. They’re able to do this because there isn’t that much retail demand for SLV or other ETFs. Otherwise they would have to stack silver in the ETF to keep it in line with the silver price.

The fact that this is going down means there is less demand for ETF for retail traders because they’re just not interested in silver yet because it’s not going high enough fast enough but it will. So no demand in ETFs, no demand in the physical markets for the stackers because as I said I just had an interview with Brian Kuzma who said the spreads are far apart which means there is no activity and no demand. Here I wanted to go into silver squeeze but we can see here the ETF demand. The only movement that ever increased ETF demand substantially was silver squeeze excluding this part over here which was the post lockdown frenzy for silver.

That really was a huge move in the silver stacks. This is the amount of silver in the SLV ETF. It went up from about the lockdowns to about the middle of 2020. I think that’s August 2020 and then it stayed kind of steady until silver squeeze and then fell. So if we look back at the 2011, 2010, 2011 reality of 50 we can see here there was a little bit of humongous. It wasn’t anything like this right. So we can see here that even the 2011 rally did not have much of an effect on the ETF demand.

It had a little bit but not that much. The only thing that had a big effect on ETF demand was silver squeeze. That was it and here is the move from silver from about 27 to now 48. So about a doubling in the silver price and here is the move in SLV from what is it, 400 and maybe 40 million ounces to now 487. So about 40, 45 million ounces. That’s not that much. There hasn’t been much demand in SLV. So once these three cylinders get going, meaning physical markets and ETF markets and whoever’s stacking in New York who appears to be continuing to do that, imagine where the silver price will be then.

It will be in the hundreds and that could be relatively soon, which is why I shared an options play on the end game investor on Substack for paid subscribers. And if you sign up, all of the new paid subscribers will also get that idea that you can still execute that there isn’t that much time left. U.S. real estate. I want to go into this in terms of gold because we broke a low here in terms of how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a single house. We broke below 120 ounces.

I think that is the low here in 2011. This is September 2011 when gold hit a bear mark bull market top over here and then had a bear market over here. But now that is done. We hit like a triple quadruple, whatever top here couldn’t get through that resistance. And now we are below 120 ounces of gold per house. I expect this to go down to the 1980 level of that looks to be around 70. It’s going to get lower than that in Weimar. Remember it took about a hundred dollar bill to buy a swanky house in Berlin.

That’s about five ounces of gold. I expect that we will go there for a time. It will not be sustainable and it will not be sustained. But for a time you will be able to buy a nice sized house for about five, six, seven ounces of silver. Exactly what it will be. It won’t matter because the stackers will have a much more than that and it won’t even make a difference. What about silver? Well that we haven’t hit a, we haven’t broken through the trend line yet and we haven’t hit resistance yet at about just below 5,000 ounces.

Maybe that’s 4,900, 4,800 something like that. But here is the trend line from 1980. We can see here we were about, what is that? Maybe 1,700 ounces, maybe 1,500 ounces in 1980. I don’t know exactly what it is, but we have to break through 10,000 and get through this trend line, but we will. And we’ll see this number fall faster than it will in gold. And we should break below the 1980 line here. If we do get to the Weimar area, then you should be able to buy a decent house for about 75 to 100 ounces of silver for a short period of time.

At that time, you don’t want to necessarily find the best deal. You just buy whatever is available because everybody needs silver, because there’s no other way to divide labor, because credit doesn’t work, which is why prices and silver will be so low at that time, because of the desperation for real money with which to divide labor will be in desperation levels. UK real estate, just wanted to look at that. These are all from gold charts or us. UK real estate is pushing 100 ounces of gold for a house. This is the average in all UK property price.

I don’t know how exactly accurate these are. These are estimations. But you can see here, the trend is obvious. We’re going to break through 100 ounces in the UK. One more chart, UK housing in silver. You can see we broke through 10,000 ounces. We’re at 9,722. And we have a trend line. I didn’t actually draw it here. I think we’re right on that line from 1980. If you draw a trend line here, touching the 2011 high and then touching here, I think we’re right on that trend line. But it also wanted to go into China real estate.

Since we’re talking about real estate, let’s talk about China real estate. I haven’t really covered this, but Phil Loew of The Bitter Draft alerted me to this guy in China who was talking about Chinese real estate. It’s really bad. If you look at, this is China property investment year over year. I don’t know what the units are. I’m just looking at the trend here. You can see here, China property investment has been falling net since 2022, and it keeps getting worse and worse and worse. There is a real estate bust going on in China, which is very serious.

And you have an entire country that is forcing everyone to put their savings in real estate, ghost towns of crappily built housing that even made in China. When you easy made in China on a tag, it doesn’t seem good. But they’re in China and it’s made in China because it’s real estate in China. It’s really bad stuff. This whole thing. China is China screwed. Forget it. They’re gone. We’re nearing the end of this game. I don’t know how much longer it’s going to last. At some point, there’s going to be a repo crunch.

I don’t understand how you can have more repos trading every night than dollars that exist in the banking system. But, you know, whatever, I’ll figure it out and I’ll put it on the investor on sub stack when I do. In the meantime, gold’s at 4,000 or very close to it. Silver should hit 50 any day now. And once it does, I think it’s going to explode higher as we break through a 45 year resistance. And we find a new level for silver that will be closer to the 30 to one ratio that we hit in 2011.

I don’t know how long it’s going to take, but silver’s headed to the triple digits for sure. Not in a very long time either. Could be months or something like that. If you enjoyed this, then get a dirty man safe. Check out gold and silver at Miles Franklin. Link in the description below. And if you want some spiritual lessons in gold and silver, then check out my Patreon for as little as $3 a month. I charge that just to keep out the peanut gallery, whatever you want to call them. And we go through spiritual lessons in gold and silver and government and economics once a week using total resources.

And I’ll see you guys next week. And I’m betting by the next silver report will be through 4,000 and through 50 and will be off to the races. Oh my God. Did you feel that too? Only best buddies execute pedophiles together. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.

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