And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey and this is the Goldfix Friday morning payroll edition. It’s 7 12 in the morning. Let’s get this out so people can prep a little bit. Topics today, the jobs number preview and a breaking story last night. Some friends on social media alerted us to El Salvador buys gold. We sent that out a post last night. Sorry for the late night email interruption, but this is gold. It’s not a boring market anymore. Okay. Let’s get started. There’s the homepage. Here’s the markets. Ten year yields are unchanged offered.

They were weaker yesterday. The dollar is down 29, down 30. The SP 500 is up 13. The VIX is 15, 18. Stable gold, a little bit of a bounce. Up 8 and change after a recovery off the lows, a nice recovery off the lows yesterday. Silver, a little bit of a bounce after a weaker recovery off the lows, but a recovery nonetheless. Copper, a dead cat bounce. Up 2 cents, 4.15 change. WTI down 35, natural gas, unchanged bid. Bitcoin up 1,400. Getting some momentum again. It’s trading risk on, isn’t it? Ethereum 4,408 up 109. Palladium, 1,122 down 5.

Platinum up 12, doing their trading one against the other thing. Gold, silver, 87, so stronger yesterday, but still under 89. Grains pretty much uniformly higher. Okay. There’s no page. Geopolitics. China may be active in U.S. gold. We think they’re buying again, just like they did in 24 when they took on JP Morgan. We don’t think JP Morgan is short this time, though. On the right-hand side, India buys gold. That’s a popular post. Gold breaks 3,500, and we just sent the South Founders’ Goldman Flex 5,000 gold if Fed loses independence. We also have a mini-pod in that, giving some context, and we’re sharing that with the mini-pod aspect with everyone.

We want people to get a handle of what’s going on there. And that report will be broken down and sent out to premium this weekend. All right. The first story we want to talk about is El Salvador. El Salvador boosts gold reserves 31% with a $50 million purchase. Doesn’t seem like a lot of money. However, 31% is a big number. So El Salvador adds $50 million in gold, first purchase in 35 years. September 4th, El Salvador. El Salvador Central Bank boosted its gold reserves by nearly a third with a $50 million acquisition of $13,999. Lifting total holdings to $58,105.

The move marks the first gold purchase since 1990 and comes alongside the nation’s high-profile Bitcoin bet and a recent domestic gold discovery, highlighting a dual reserve strategy blending traditional metal with digital assets. That full post was sent out last night, and you can read it. It’s a news item. We also included the post from when they found $3 trillion in gold, at least that’s what they alleged. El Salvador is a big supporter and owner of Bitcoin and as recently as nine months ago announced a massive find of gold locally. Thus, our question is, why does a nation friendly to both China and the U.S.

buy gold at roughly $3,400 when they have discovered so much recently? And there are several paths to go on that. I’ll just throw this out there, food for thought. El Salvador has good relations with the U.S. That has become evidenced recently with the immigrants and what have you. El Salvador also has a good relationship with China. China has been lending them money for some time. El Salvador is one of those countries in Latin America that China does business with. El Salvador is also pro-Bitcoin. Not that China is pro-Bitcoin, but the point is being pro-Bitcoin is not being friendly to the dollar, at least on the surface of it.

El Salvador recently made amends with the IMF. I believe El Salvador is positioned to live in both worlds. And how do you live in both worlds in the future if you’re going to trade with the U.S. and China? Well, you have to have gold. Do they need the gold they bought? They might not need the gold. Maybe that $3 trillion in gold is actually there. I don’t know. But you need some Bitcoin and you need some gold. And if you’re going to trade on the east side of the world, you better have gold. If you’re going to trade on the west side of the world, you better have dollars.

And if you want to facilitate trade in areas that’s gray, you’re going to use Bitcoin. So we think it’s probably it might have been a publicly a public deference to someone. I don’t know. But they bought gold after saying they have $3 trillion in gold. I mean, what does that say? Right? You know, anyway, so that’s the story. You can read the rest of that. Yesterday, Bloomberg posted on the terminal that Goldman says $5,000 gold is possible. If the Fed is damaged, zero hedge did a premium right up on that. And we have access to that report.

And we’re going to do a full right up this weekend. We’re not going to say the name of the bank here, but how BLS jobs data is cooked. That’s essentially in addition to describing how BLS jobs data is cooked. It’s a good look into why there’s a really good chance of 50 basis point cut. Today’s data notwithstanding, watch Japanese bonds for the next $50 move. That’s yesterday morning. Must-read bond vigilantes are gold bugs now. That’s our continuing coverage of how macro discretionary and bond players are really looking at the metals markets now. Founders watch Japan bonds closely.

That’s a more detailed version of it. This weekend, soft general, why bonds are bad lately and gold is good. We know pointedly that as macro discretionary is buying gold and shorting bonds or lease selling bonds, getting out of bonds, banks are picking up on this. Four months ago, Goldman said buy gold, not bonds. Soft Gen is saying bonds are not looking so good compared to gold, the dollarization, all the other reasons. So we think banks are picking up on that and they’re running with it. And I think it’s kind of like a big money grassroots meme that’s going to go mainstream possibly.

Golden flags, fed damage can drive gold to near $5,000. We talked about that. Minipod on why macro D has returned to gold and silver. We already recorded that. We haven’t sent that out yet. We don’t want to spam your inbox too much. And then our weekend CFT analysis and much more. Jobs report preview. Now, below the fold here, we have a full breakdown of the jobs report preview. And some of you may not see this until after 830. Hopefully most of you will see it before then. But there’s a very cursory beginning introduction to full things there.

And we have previews from the three banks. Goldman thinks the consensus is $75,000. Goldman thinks much weaker. JP Morgan says on the consensus and Bank of America says stronger than consensus. And you can see what we think right there. We don’t know if you’re looking at this from a gold point of view. We think gold is acting like they think we’re going to have a big revision and a low non-farm payrolls. However, take into your eye on the market right now, right here. Anyone who’s buying today right now, if they’re not covering shorts, they’re short-term speculators betting on a coin flip.

So if the non-farm payrolls come out strong, you could see gold dump. The question is, will it be bought again? And we think it probably will be because revisions mean more than the payrolls now. Of course, that could be famous last words if payrolls come in at plus $500,000. But you get the idea. Okay, so we explain the rationale for that in the whole post. And that’s it. Let’s take a quick look at the charts. There’s my old silver marks. Here, let me pull this up here for you. I think it’s mission accomplished. We said this was a measured move, and mind you, it scared the crap out of us.

But on a monthly, it’s easier. It doesn’t do that on a monthly. And so it looks like we’re close to mission accomplished. 42 is the level. And there’s a couple of series of other ones. Gold, well, look, I mean, look at these two right charts here. Let’s start with this. Everything here looks good, right? All right, so gold, it’s above that line. That was my line. Actually, I think it was Polly’s line as well, right? So that’s a big move above that line. The weekly Bollinger Bands were in the first week of a three to five week bull run.

And what negates it, what negates this is, it’s a lot lower. It’s $34.21. So it’s not telling you to buy it now. It’s telling you you should have bought it on Monday, which hopefully you did. There are levels that you can buy pullbacks to, but I’m not going to share too many of those right now. However, if I go to the daily, you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about in this whole Bollinger Band thing that I like to use. See that? We got a winding market rallied. Let’s see, here’s day one. One, two, three, four.

So what do we have here? We got an eight and a nine. The impulsive move is over sideways. The sideways end with a collapse lower, probably not. The sideways end with a dip lower, maybe. Maybe we already got it. Or does sideways end with an explosive move higher? Stay tuned. We’ll find out. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.