What The Banks Are Saying About The Gold Silver Miners | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ Vince Lanci, in his Goldfix Market Rundown on Arcadia Economics, discusses how banks have started to show interest in miners due to high gold prices, high interest rates, and other factors. He suggests that banks are encouraging miners to start hedging their production. Vince is also working on a book about gold, with sneak previews available to Goldfix founders. He concludes by saying that it’s not too late to invest in miners, as their value is currently underestimated.

 

Transcript

Mayors caught their interest. So we believe they went to the miners and said, pursuant to this Citibank type of report, and said, you should start hedging. And they made the case for it. The case was made very well, but it was made best in that report, which we have indicated here. Again, there are various reasons. The price of gold was high, the height of interest rates, the fact that real rates were high, liquidity plus cheap energy and other changes. They all pointed towards miners being too cheap to ignore right now. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey.

Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Goldfix Market Rundown. It’s Friday, 8-12. I’m Vince. A quick housekeeping piece. The Market Rundown will be pre-recorded next week as I need the time to pursue a book I’ve been planning on writing. To those ends, I am writing a book with a financially famous editor, Terry, with two Rs, Wooten, who was also one of the people responsible for creating the modern Dow Jones Newswire writing model. You see his work everywhere.

You just don’t know it. You may see his influence in our recent news item type posts. We follow a model that he was a pioneer in. Sections of the book, it’ll be on gold, as they are drafted, will be available to Goldfix founders as they’re ready for sneak previews over the next six months. I got to get to work on it. It’s time. Okay. There’s the home page. We just sent that mini pot out. That’s a word about miners to the founders. We’re going to. That was a recorded thing we did this morning after coffee, and we’re going to replicate that.

Hopefully, properly for everyone on this video here now. Okay, here’s the markets 10 year yields are up one, the Dow is 9776 up 25 the Dallas in the me the dollar. S&P 500 6372 up to the VIX is down 13 gold is down 26. Yep. 3341 silver is 3871. Copper is 573. That a little over three cents. WTI is up 11 natural gases up almost to Bitcoin down 1800 Ethereum is up 21. Palladium and platinum down about 20 bucks each holds over lower again with the markets lower and grains are all down. Uniformly with soybeans weakest.

Okay, so let’s get to it. For the past two years, you’re looking at some posts there on miners, and I’ll be referring to them as we talk for the past two years or so. Give myself situated here. Try this again for the past two years or so we have been alerting subscribers to the reality that there was very little overhang of producers selling in the gold market. And almost none in the silver market to keep prices in check. That’s one of the reasons we levitated and that this would be a problem for the billion banks over that two year period.

We’ve also actually three years. We’ve also seen the billion banks take a hit, at least under visible trading portfolios, but in December, something changed. And we saw the billion banks swapped us to behave more normatively again. They seem to have been let out of the penalty box. And we said that in our Sunday conversations on more than one occasion. Soon thereafter, we started seeing reports from billion banks, very good reports, talking about miners, not in the usual sing song way, almost like they were appealing. The reports were written for the producers themselves, at least some of them weren’t.

Citibank’s report was the most important. That’s the first one you see there. We reviewed that in March of this year around that time there were a flurry of reports that came out Bank of America Bloomberg have written a nice one, and the Citibank one of course which is what we want to talk about for a second here. That one laid out the reasons that miners were in a once in a 40 year situation. That report came across like it was written for investors once in a 40 year opportunity. But what it really was was an opportunity for miners to start hedging their production or hedging their new production.

We saw it as the beginning of banks saying they wanted to buy miners if they hadn’t already. Banks had hated miners for a long time. And because they’ve hated miners, the investor class has hated miners, that’s their client base, especially with the lack of PR that miners have. But everything gets to a point where it’s too cheap to ignore. And with tech stocks rolling over during that time period, March, before the April rally, miners caught their interest. So we believe they went to the miners and said, pursuant to this Citibank template report and said, you should start hedging.

And they made the case for it. The case was made very well, but it was made best in that report, which we have indicated here. Again, there are various reasons. The price of gold was high, the height of interest rates, the fact that real rates were high, liquidity plus cheap energy and other changes. They all pointed towards miners being too cheap to ignore right now. So going into the timeline and the turn of this, in March, actually started in January. But in March, there was a flurry, and then there was nothing. And then in July, Goldman Sachs, a bullion bank, that’s calling for 4,000 gold and 4,500 gold.

And they’re the most bullish, and they have been consistent, throws a little… Their trading desk throws a little comment out saying that they love metals, which we know and we think they actually mean it. But they actually like the miners more than metals. And that’s hard to believe. But if that’s not a reason, if that’s not a reason for smart money to buy or to have already bought, then there isn’t any reason ever. And that’s what happened. That’s the timeline that got us here. Between January this year and now, miners, we believe, started hedging. That explains the bullion bank’s hedging.

And that’s one of the reasons gold is in its range. We have significant demand coming from central banks underneath, right? And now we have miners with production hedging again. I don’t know how much production, but it’s a fresh year, so their production isn’t hedged, or perhaps it’s not as hedged as it usually is. They’re probably throwing it out these 25 or these 26, and it’s making its way into the market with bullion banks selling, hitting the bid in swaps. So they’re free to make profits now. Now, because their hedges are going to higher prices, their fiscal year is probably part of it, and you’re seeing that manifest.

Now, I’m going to include these reports again for you to look at. They were written in March. There are two things I’d like you to take away from this if you’re looking at this and saying, maybe it’s too late. The first one is, it’s not too late. And the reason it’s not too late is because it doesn’t get any better than this insight, meaning from what the banks are putting out than if you were on the bank desk yourself. I guess what I’m saying with regard to that, self-congratulations aside, the mainstream media won’t pick up on this until a year from now.

And we’ve been so trained collectively to take everything that anyone says with a grain of salt that we hesitate. So we are the 10-ton elephant that’s been tethered to a pole with a shoelace for the last five years. The second thing is, we’re not in the hype stage yet, not at all. Now, you may feel like you’re in the hype stage if you’re a mining person or you’ve been in mines forever because you’re just not used to the attention that we’re getting within our sector. And I’m saying to you from experience, recent experience, as a person who is very careful in the first leg of the gold rally, higher two years ago, I’m saying this to you.

We’re nowhere near the hype aspect of it yet. So while I’m not telling you to go out and buy miners, and I’m not telling you that they’re not overbought in the short term, and I’m telling you that this is the beginning of the move. I am telling you this is the beginning of the move. So this is it. We’re in it. The move that people like Jordan talk about at the Daily Gold, technically, you know, we’re just breaking out right now. Look at charts like that. Move to people like Chris Marcus and his clients, not his clients, his people that he interviews, first Majestic, and people like Newmont that I pay attention to, and Scottsdale.

I talked to Josh Ferret, Scottsdale Mint. They all see these ground floor things that we don’t, and they have to come into the marketplace. And, generationally speaking, especially if you’re my age or older, we’re lucky now. You actually get good information. I’m telling you, if you have a bias to act on it, then act on it. Because the information you’re getting is not bullshit. The bag holders are not us, not Goldwood. And this is a message to myself, too. You know, I mean, I’m telling you, I’m not telling you to go out and buy. I’m actually saying this to myself because I’m under long minors.

I get very fancy with my trading when it comes to minors because I am scarred, like you all are, right? And as a result, I’ll buy minors, and I’ll sell Mag 7, or I’ll buy minors, and I’ll sell Gold. I’ll just never straight out buy, except for GDX and Newmont, or what have you. But I’m just saying, minors are a go. The banks have got their ear. The banks are giving them good advice, and they’re starting to take it. They’re starting to maximize shareholder value by buying shares back, probably by increasing dividends. Maybe you’ll see a vertical integration.

You have to know the minors, and I don’t know them anymore with the extra cash. I don’t know. But that’s it. That’s the point I wanted to make. I’ve reattached those posts. I would say the post that you really want to, some of these are in founders, I think. But I’ve reattached both. I would say the post you really want to read if you’re trying to follow along with what I just said, all right, these two posts. Goldminers, Citi makes the fundamental case, okay? And that’s the one that really made me just raise an eyebrow.

And then you want to read the Boyan Bank miners over metals piece. Everything else, I’m happy to have you read. But those two are like bookends for me. Remember, Goldman is the most bullish metals bank out there. And in this little blurb from their trading desk, they’re like, yeah, we like miners more than metals now. So there you have it. Enjoy. There’s the posts. Other related posts, we just set this one out, trying to zoom on growth is set to obliterate. We had would obliterate, but set to obliterate. You don’t know. Western inflation targets. You can see the rest of them there.

Coming soon this weekend, UBS on Platinum Heart and its walkthrough. How to play OBB in stock, something we talked to founders about last Sunday. And stablecoin winners and losers and more. There will be no Sunday founders discussion. Data this week. Oh, I think I missed it. Where is it? Let’s do a little chart there again. Today’s Friday, durable goods, and it’s going to be out in three minutes. I’m Vince. Well, thank you, Vincent, as always for this morning’s broadcast. And also thank you to each and every one of you out there watching the show. Sure.

Hope you enjoyed it. And that this show has been helpful as we navigate these historic times. In the gold and silver markets. And before we wrap up for the weekend. First of all, I’m going to say, I hope that you are all safe and healthy and well out there. A lot going on in the world, but glad we have this space here together to talk about some of these things. And lastly, would like to thank Fortuna Mining who kindly brought us today’s show. And one of the changes that we’ve noticed in Fortuna this year is that they did sell their San Jose.

And here are MoCo mines, which allows them to focus on lower cost ounces, which is one of the things that they’ve been targeting because yes, they could easily increase the overall production number, but they’re doing that very selectively. And targeting lower cost ounces to bring the overall cost down as low as possible and provide more margin, especially at the elevated gold prices. Although one of the things that they have been working on in terms of getting that production back up is the project they picked up from Cheshire Resources, their D’Ambassoud project. That was something that CEO Jorge Ginoza talked about in his last appearance on the show after they had record free cashflow in the second quarter.

And to find out a little bit more about the potential timeline going on there. Well, here is Jorge. I think the sale of both assets makes a lot of sense. And then you can replace them with, I mean, obviously you have the D’Ambassoud project. D’Ambassoud, so the opportunities are the Seguell expansion, Seguell expansion. Seguell who already said next year is going up to 180,000 ounces of annual production. And D’Ambassoud, as you know, we’re fast tracking it and running three parallel tracks, permitting environmental studies, engineering studies, and exploration. Although we’re not doing that sequentially, but rather at the same time.

With the idea that perhaps second half of next year we can be in a better position to make a construction decision. Well, thank you, Jorge, for that update. It certainly is exciting to see how that’s coming along, especially given how things just progressed and were executed for their Seguell mine, which really has been a big success and has become the flagship asset of the company. Although we’ll see how soon Cheser is added to that portfolio. So either case, I hope you are getting set for a truly wonderful and magical weekend. And if you’d like to hear a little bit more about Fortuna and what else were they had to say.

And what was really a great call, in my opinion, after their second quarter earnings. Well, I’ll leave you with that one to head it off into the weekend. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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