Perfect Storm begins $50 and beyond awaits. That’s a post that has what happened last week, what were the drivers, our analysis and comments, technical analysis and comments, and the reports that we have shared with people and broken down and shared with people over the last, say, two months that have been accurate in predicting this type of behavior going forward. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lanci. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone.

I’m Vince Lanci and this is the Goldfix Market Rundown from Monday. It’s 809. There are no data points today, so we’re on schedule. We have a lot to talk about with Silver and we put out four or five posts over the last three days covering the metal from every angle we can think of. Front and center is the post called Silverfix. Perfect Storm begins $50 and beyond awaits. That’s a post that has what happened last week, what were the drivers, our analysis and comments, technical analysis and comments, and the reports that we have shared with people and broken down and shared with people over the last, say, two months that have been accurate in predicting this type of behavior going forward.

UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America have all been telling you what was going to happen if you knew how to listen. We got lucky here, right? Okay, so the other stories are breakdowns in areas, I think, of interest. So top left-hand side, Ground Zero and Global Mineral Wars. That’s Josh Fair of Scottsdale CEO did a three-minute piece and it was phenomenally loaded with information of what’s coming down the road. May not give a glide path, but it gives the destination and the destination is we need to secure minerals and that includes silver, whether it’s set or not.

So we listened to that podcast, the three-minute video he did, and we wrote on it. We wrote it up, we broke it down, and we put it in context of some of the things we talk about here. So that’s must listen and must read. Lower left-hand side, breaking silver, nears 2011 highs as physical market fractures. That was put out on Friday in light of the rally that we had, and it focuses on the physical market issues as really the underpinning, the London issues and what have you. Daniel Galley stuff is in there as well.

Lower right-hand side is simply a news item. BRICS ETF demand has been off the charts. We’ve talked about gold over here for a long time, but now India has been really stepping up their ETF demand in silver. So investors want it. They want the silver now, not the cold, because it’s cheap. And the top right-hand side is the Hartnett walkthrough. Instead of going through the prices today in the interest of time, trying to give you an overview, this week we have CPI and PPI, but probably the most important information is going to come out of anything that Donald Trump does.

And this week, today, as early as today, perhaps, he’s going to have an announcement on Russia. I’m not sure what it is, but that will have an effect on palladium as a commodity. It will have an effect on oil. And the markets, if you look at the markets, they seem to be discounting increased friction between Russia and the US. Hard to say, early to say, but we’ll find out. If you look at the board as a whole, you have stocks a little bit softer. You have the dollar unchanged, but it has been strong off the lows for the last several days.

The VIX is stronger, discounting fear of news. That’s a Trump effect. Gold is up $5, $10. Also, increased geopolitical tension. Silver is up because of every reason under the moon. Tariffs are a direct effect on silver, not because we’re going to tariff raw material. I don’t think we will tariff raw material of silver because we don’t create enough of it. It’s other countries that will restrict their flow of metal to us because we’re tariffing them on stuff they need to do, which is why people like Josh are talking about we need to lock down our own scrap in copper.

We need to promote mining and protection of domestic minerals. We need to drill for lithium, which they just discovered a ton of in Wyoming. All these things tie together. Copper down five cents. Why is copper there? Well, because it ran up 17% in one day, and you’re going to have people putting on trades, putting on positions. Right now, the market is reacting to news that it believes is about to happen. Copper is weaker because people are buying silver and selling the copper out. Everyone’s got these spreads on. That’s just a fact. The most interesting asset commodity is Bitcoin to make, because Bitcoin has, we’ve observed over the last month, slowed down its correlation with stocks.

It’s a tech stock. Tech stocks aren’t doing shit right now, but Bitcoin is now at all-time highs, so Bitcoin is locking in with commodities, not necessarily dollar-related, although it has done well when the dollar was weaker, but gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin. Gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin, they’re moving in almost lockstep, whether it’s geopolitical, which it is partly, or tariff-related, which is geopolitical as a subset, or it’s commodities, de-dollarization. Anyway, just know that Bitcoin is moving closer in behavior to what it purports to be. And yes, I am long Bitcoin. I also said about a month and a half ago, I said, Bitcoin above 110 will go to 130 before it goes to 100.

And so far, I’ve been correct, but a lot slower than I thought. Maybe we’ll catch fire now. Okay, so enough with the markets themselves. Let’s move to the main story. Spot silver rallied last week, surging to 3847 per ounce, with COMEX September futures peaking at 3912 an ounce. We’ve blown that away today. The $2 intraday move over 48 hours marked a breakout moment, driven by escalating tariff threats, physical flows, stock depletion, and rising institutional buying. Arbitrage spreads between London and the US futures widen sharply, reflecting growing delivery strain. The rally comes, that’s over the weekend, we just did today.

The rally comes amid heightened focus on critical minerals. The US is preparing for potential trade disruptions, while global flows face increased friction. Reports indicate silver shipments are being rerouted, with refining bottlenecks tightening available supply. The LBMA is showing visible signs of inventory stress. EFP spreads and lease rates have surged, pointing to physical scarcity. ETF flows from India and China are accelerating, highlighting a pivot in global demand away from gold towards a less expensive but equally precious metal. Meanwhile, swap dealers now hold their largest collective net short position in history. Now, they unwound some of that over the five-day period covered to July 8th, but I have a feeling with the rally the last few days, either they’re covering or they’re adding to shorts.

Either way, they’re not happy. And a big hat tip to Chris Marcus, who has been tracking that 2011 short max out for the last year or so, and he was on top of it. And he’s right. Silver’s not at $50, and they’re at their max short. So it’s going a lot higher, in my opinion. All right. With silver fundamentals reasserting over paper abstractions and BRICS demand rising, market participants are recalibrating. Lease rates, policy shifts, and constrained supply suggest a metal may be entering a structurally tighter phase. The full story is right there.

Now, before we move on to the charts, I just want to sum up the factors for you. Now, most of these factors have been there, but now they’re being discussed. And they’re all being discussed because Trump said 50% tariffs on copper. The first, all these are coalescing right now. This is where the perfect storm comes in. Tariff risk. Trade barriers on industrial metals are disrupting silver flows, raising sourcing costs, and driving delivery premiums higher. We tariff copper. They tariff silver. I’m sure Mexico is using that as leverage in talks. Mineral wars.

Nations pursuant to mercantile practices are locking down mineral exports to secure domestic value, turning silver into a tool of economic nationalism. Recall last week, Mali stole the gold from Barak. Russia is going to put in jail the gold producer CEO. South America, the miners go on strike. They want more money. Climate change. You can’t mine here anymore. Every section of the world is doing it in their own way, but they’re all slowly nationalizing. What do you think we’re doing? We’re not buying, preventing our miners from operating. We’re just putting 50% of the ownership in a lithium miner, right? You don’t think we’re going to let everyone just sell their silver overseas now.

There’s things that are, you do things differently in every region. Anyway, moving to London. London, this is us talking London has no fucking metal. Okay. LBM a vaults are being drained with soaring these rates and EFP spreads, revealing acute physical demand overseas. London is the world’s hub of physical metal. And now the world’s prices are going up. Shanghai’s going up. US is going up. That’s all that means. It means that the silver market is now a regional market and London has a choice. It can either acknowledge the price by allowing its price to go up, which means its metal would have to leave because people would just take it as the price, causing the price to go up, or they must give up their status as the global hub.

What do you do? You shut up and that’s what they’ve done. They shut up. They probably, you know, Daniel Gali made some points about it being the lowest free float ever. How can it be any lower? And here’s what I mean. I’m saying this to Daniel. If in January, when you noted that the silver ETF was one to one with very little free float, and it’s worse now, what does that imply? It implies that there’s, he’s not going to say it, so I’m going to say it implies that there is a robbing Peter to pay multiple mentality in the OTC market between the dealers.

And it’s like a little bit of a daisy chain. I owe you, you owe me gentlemen’s agreements that are going to falter. So there’s, and don’t underestimate what they will do to protect themselves. The question is how this time. So there’s a, there’s not enough metal. Okay. Not enough available metal. Bricks ETF demand. This is a surprising one, actually. Rising silver ETF inflows from India and China reflect the strategic pivot to silver as both a hedge and industrial store value. And I would just add to that. It does really seem like if you want to choose Chinese of getting gold higher, manipulating higher, they got gold up.

No one complained. Now the other metals are going to go higher because they’re all commodity related. And by the way, that’s not bearish for oil, right? If people are buying oil with yuan, which is implicitly backed by gold, et cetera, et cetera. So the full analysis in the premium post silver is perfect. Storm begins next related post. I just went through those. Okay. CPI, PPI this week, you could see the data. There’s nothing today. I want to go through the charts and do a final market check. But before I the jumping off point will be Michael Oliver’s report.

He said that last night. Now he covers every commodity stocks, bonds, and everything. There was a small section discussing the gold silver ratio. And he believes, you could see a little bit of his chart there. He believes that the gold silver ratio, we’re talking big picture here, going back some 40 years, 1984 to 2025. What’s that? 41 years. He believes that the gold silver ratio is now in a place where it can rally on his chart. And I’ll invert that for you and let you see it on a bigger chart in a second.

But the implications are that he believes the gold silver ratio for him next target is eight and a half percent. So that’s about 65 the way we look at it. And that equals a $55 price with gold at 3400. So let’s look at that. All right, that doesn’t render very well, but you’re looking at a system called polytrends that I use. And I’m using it more and more. OK, so here’s Michael Strart on a daily show with you on a monthly. He goes back to 1985. We’re just going to go back to 2004.

Now, in 2014, 15, you have you have a I’m sorry, we’re looking at Lowe’s now. You have a low here and it repeats in 2021. So basically 2014 to where we broke where we broke down. That’s his level right there. I looked at these two 2016, 2021. This is your floor. Now, having broken what he’s saying is having broken this up for me upwardly sloping trend line that the next line that should govern this spread should be about here, which puts it at about 65. And that puts silver at $55 double nickels.

The speed limit, the old speed limit, assuming gold doesn’t rally at all. Now, he goes further to talk about gold as being in a range, characterizing it like we have in a sense that it’s pausing, it’s collecting. And this leg higher, unless there’s a big geopolitical event, silver should lead. Silver should drag gold higher now. We do think they’re selling gold above the market and that’s keeping it in range and that’s fine, but there ain’t no selling in silver except the silver that retail sells. So please stop selling that. The order term, we’re in day two of one of my buy signals that says the market’s got an upswing for three to five days.

So day three, day four, day five, and it looks like this signal triggers here. Day one was on Friday. I alerted everyone to this that subscribes. The last one we had was here, right? Got in a little bit early, but we got the breakout here and then we got five days higher. So there’s two. We’re working on another three days higher. Now, you can’t swear by this, but you can swear by the following. Unless the market cracks, 37.35, any dip above 37.35 is not something to be scared of. We’re going to have wider ranges now.

Let me read a little bit of, let me read a, let me just, I did a summary of Michael’s silver stuff last night. So let me just, let me just give you a little bit of what I said. All right. Silver, momentum signal set up, sets up long-term structural launch. Now you’re speaking long-term here, right? So just put up regular silver here for you. All right. Okay. In his July 13th report last night, Michael Oliver outlined a structural momentum breakout underway in silver framed within a broader reassertion of harder asset leadership. Commodities are all going up now, right? Silver’s long-term momentum measured on a quarterly oscillation basis, his proprietary stuff, against its 36 quarter average has transitioned from a subdued base, rounding bottom, to active expansion, breaking out.

The current reading of 13.2% over a 36 quarter mean is a critical threshold for him and we have broken it. Historically, such levels have preceded major rallies. In comparison to gold, he emphasizes that silver is outpacing gold in momentum intensity. Now that may be obvious to us now, but he’s been talking about that for about two weeks. While both metals are technically strong, silver surge is sharper and its prior basing action more prolonged. So it’s been doing what gold was doing when it was under 2000. So now it’s silver’s turn to break that.

The divergence mirrors previous historical periods where they take turns. Most notably the late 70s when gold was leading and then silver notably out explosively outperformed once macro confidence in flat instruments and fiat instruments eroded. So people got worried about inflation again. And maybe it’s not silver gold. The silver gold, one more paragraph I have to read. The silver gold ratio is rebounding after a decade of dormancy. Oliver sets the ratios, current behavior. This is what I was talking about before. At the early stages of renewed outperformance for silver. This aligns with increasing, this lines with our thoughts, increasing industrial and geopolitical relevance of silver in the context of monetary shifts and resource nationalism.

Okay. If the silver quarterly oscillator sustains above 10% level, you have to understand what that means. For two or more quarters, he believes a parabolic advance becomes probable. I think that’s his rationale or his level that he’s looking at when he’s talking about 120 silver or what have you. Past cases of when that happened resulted in multi-year trends, not short-term spikes. So he frequently will say in his reports, if we’re at the beginning, middle, or end, you know, this is early in the cycle. Well, he says two things and you should pay attention to both of them.

Silver is early in this breakout. He also says the impulsive behavior of silver can get really big. So we could be early and we could rally a lot. So it’s almost like he’s saying you haven’t missed anything yet, but you could be 5% higher tomorrow and then sayonara you’re too late. So that’s our take on all this. Before leaving, I want to touch on Bitcoin. The measure and move concept from here to here had a mini one from here to here. And right around here, when it got back up here, I said, not going to go below 100,000 before it goes to 130.

Now, it tested the shit out of it and scared me. Actually got below 100,000, but didn’t close there on a weekly basis. And then the market took off. So a little late to the party on my idea, but it’s working. Whatever Bitcoin is, it’s going up. That’s all you really need to know. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Before making any decisions and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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