Who’s sittin’ on a million f***in’ dollars? Am I wrong? Who’s got a f***in’ million f***in’ dollars sittin’ in a trunk of our car? Well, hello there, my friends. Raf here from the Endgame Investor, and it’s time for a new silver report. There’s been a lot going on in the silver market, at least in terms of the dollar price. We broke 36, everyone was really excited. We even broke 37, ephemerally. We might have broken it by the time I published this video again. But despite the excitement, you should keep in mind that this is nothing compared to what happened in the late 1970s and into 1980.

Silver is still nothing compared to the S&P 500, nothing compared to the Dow Jones Industrial. All of the bubble assets are still pretty fluffy compared to real money. And when real money starts to absorb the purchasing power of the bubble assets, then you’ll start to see silver really go to the moon, wherever the moon is. We have a calculation in this video that’s about $2,700. If we get to 1980 metrics, which I believe we will, also going to talk about, do the COTs really matter? Do the commitment of traders numbers and reports for silver really matter? It doesn’t seem that they do, that they do indicate something.

And do the open interest numbers in silver even matter? And Chris Marcus pointed this out in one of his recent posts on his substack, which I highly recommend that you subscribe to. And that is that the bullion banks are at their second highest short positions ever. And that if they are actually hedged with physical supply in London as they say they are, meaning they go short in New York, they short contracts in New York and hedge it to go long in London, if they actually are long those contracts, then the float, the silver float, particularly in London, is down to just a few million troy ounces.

I think it’s like 3.5. We’ll show you the math. I’ll show you the math. In this upcoming silver report brought to you by Kootenai Silver, symbol K-O-O-Y-F. And like most silver stocks since the silver rally began a few months ago, the stock price of Kootenai has risen along with the rest of the complex. And yes, I do own shares of Kootenai Silver. The latest news with Kootenai was out May 22nd. Kootenai Silver provides update on upcoming mineral resource estimate. This paragraph here says it all, the highly anticipated columnar maiden resource estimate includes data collected along four main vein trends.

These closely linked mineralized zones, and pay attention here, this is really important, represent but a portion of what is now recognized as a silver dominant intermediate sulfidation epithermal mineral system. If you don’t know what a silver dominant intermediate sulfidation epithermal mineral system is, there’s something wrong with you. 25 bilateral kelolactrals, with 20 of those being slaved into the primary Heisenfram terminal. Now you do know what a bilateral kelolactral is? Well, of course I do, human. I am not stupid. Aye, kid. The point of this is that the maiden resource estimate will have an estimate for how much silver is estimated to be in this columba maiden resource, and that will come up soon.

And what I believe is critical about sources of silver like these, these are primary silver mines, this is not a silver mine yet, but it can become one, and that is what Kootenai is developing. Secondary mines are not going to be able to pick up their production because silver is only a byproduct in those mines, whereas Kootenai is developing primary or will be primary silver mines, which is going to be very critical for the future when silver monetary demand wakes up. But anyway, I’m with this week’s Silver Report, brought to you by Kootenai Silver, symbol K-O-O-Y-F in the US, symbol K-T-N in Canada.

First shot I wanted to look at is from GoldChartsRS. I stretched that out a little bit, which is why the writing looks a little bit stretched so it can fit the screen. These are the aggregated COT reports, Commitment of Traders reports. First of all, we’re going to look at the 2010 to 2011 run to 50 here. What was going on in the COTs? Well, you could see the commercials and the speculators, they go up and down together because these are as a V chart, right? The red has to correspond with the blue because it’s a total long and short and they cancel each other out.

So you can see here that during this huge rally in the silver price from what was it about $17 to $50 in the space of a few months, what was happening to the COTs? They were going down, down, down along with open interest. So you can see that there are shorts and longs selling out, shorts covering, longs selling their positions and open interest falling. So basically this is a short squeeze because open interest falls and the price rises. That’s what happened in 2011, at least in the derivatives market. Now, you can see here in a gray box, I think this color is, the COTs are at a minimum here.

Does this correspond with anything in the silver price? Yeah, it correspond to the local low over here. And this, by the way, is where I started buying silver. Actually, it was over here, sorry, in the mid 20s or so. I remember it was my first purchase. And, you know, I had to overcome this entire bear market over here into 2020. That was not easy to do, but I didn’t sell anything. I hope you didn’t either if you bought up here or down here relative to where this was, of course. So we see here that when the COTs are very, very low and the red and the blue in the middle column, in the middle row, excuse me, they come really, really close together.

It does correspond with a local low in the silver price as we saw here. Now, high COTs, this is the highest that it’s been that we can see in the recorded COT history, which goes back to 2000. It looks slightly before that, but this is a pretty long chart. I think it’s almost all time. You can see here that when the COTs get very extended, you do have what looks like a local high in the silver price. It’s not exact, but yeah, when the COTs become a little bit higher, you tend to have higher prices. But it’s not really that indicative because it’s nowhere near here.

And you see here when the COTs are even reversed, when the blue is above the red, that means when the commercials are long and the speculators are short, that does correspond with what looks to be a local low in the silver price. And the same here when the COTs are high, you see a high. And you got to be careful when COTs are high. You could get a slight crash as we saw in 2020, but it didn’t last long. So overall, I’d say the COTs are not that important, but we’re going to see in the next chart what is.

You can see here, if we isolate, and Chris Marcus also pointed this out to me in his recent post on his sub stack, link in the description below, that the swap dealers, those that are short silver contracts in New York and long physical silver in London, they are short in New York, a near record amount of contracts. But more important than that, I believe, is that they have been they have been persistently short, consistently short for about a year now, going back to, it looks like October 2024 or so. We can see here that the last time these bullion banks long in London, short in New York, last time they were this short, we were at a local high in 2016 in the silver price.

And also here, a little bit of a high in 2020 just before the crash. So we might think that there’s there could be some kind of danger here historically in the price, but it might not pan out. I don’t recommend selling. I don’t recommend anything. I’m not selling my positions here because, as you’ll see in future slides in this video, we are nowhere near a top in silver relative to other derivative assets, not even remotely close. So what is important about the fact that the short position in the swaps is so high right now? Well, it’s 45,706 contracts and that equals 228.53 million troy ounces of silver.

That is the net short position in New York. And so you see in the second line, you’ll see this in the following slide, meaning the actual float in London of physical silver is about 4.5 million troy ounces. That’s it. How do we know that? Has that calculated? Well, here is the London silver float. It says here, there’s two colors here. I can’t really see the two colors, but they’re sort of see them. So ETF holdings is 16,123 tons. That is already owned. The bullion banks cannot use those tons to hedge their short positions in New York with physical positions in London.

The other London ETF holdings, they can. That’s 7,244 tons. 7,244 tons equals 233 million ounces. So 233 million ounces versus 228.53 million ounces that they are short in London. Sorry, they’re short in New York. You take the difference and that’s only 4.5 million troy ounces. That’s it. So what happens if they run out? Well, then they have naked shorts, which are not hedged in London because there’s not enough physical supply to do so. And then they really get into the danger of a short squeeze. If they are hedged in London, they are not technically net short and they can handle it.

They can just deliver from London to New York, which is why you see London moving. Silver moving to New York, which is what we saw in the past few months. Now, if we’re going to compare this to the 1970s, talking about record short positions in New York by the bullion banks. But if we look at the 1970s open interest, the amount of contracts open on COMEX in New York and silver is nothing compared to what it was in the mid-1970s. You remember back in the 1970s, the big disco shootout. As you can see here, the peak open interest was actually 430,000 contracts.

Right now we’re at 174,425. So we’re nowhere near what the silver market was doing in the 1970s. These huge spikes in open interest were indicative of something earthquakey happening in silver, which was released once these contracts were covered into that short squeeze into 1980. We’re nothing compared to that right now. Let’s move to the next chart and you’ll see also how we’re nothing compared to what we were in 1980 on this metric. This is the Dow to silver ratio. And the next chart is really going to shock you if you haven’t seen it. This one, you can see here that 1980, the Dow to silver ratio, this I think the number is about 20.

The last time that the Dow to silver ratio was at 20 was in 1873 when the dollar was taken off, the silver standard, or the bimetallic standard, I should be more accurate. The dollar was defined as a weight of silver up to 1873. The crime against silver was in 1873 when the dollar became exclusively a gold derivative. So you see where we are now, we’re at 1,246 Dow to silver ratio. We were down to 20 in 1980. Now, if we get to the 1980 ratio, which we will, we can see here the Dow to silver ratio going back to 1975.

Here’s where we are now at 0.841, right? It hasn’t moved at all except a little bit in 2011 to about five. That’s about a quintupling. That is a significant move. But why does that look like such a little tiny little hill or pimple from up here? Because this is what happened in 1980. We went all the way up to about 56.5. I’m eyeballing it. So if you work out these ratios, a Dow to silver ratio of 56.5, you divide that by the current Dow to silver ratio of 0.841, you get 67.2. So that means you multiply the current silver price of 36.

Let’s just say for simple math, $36 times 67.2, you have a silver price of 2,418. So relative to stocks, at least represented by the Dow. What would be the equivalent of a $50 silver price in 1980? That would be $2,418. Now, you have to think about this way, that a $2,418 silver price would mean that banks collapse, which means that people lose their purchasing power in their bank deposits. You have hyperinflation, which means that all of the purchasing power that is in the dollar gets sucked into silver. And all the people that had dollars lose that purchasing price, and silver takes over, including gold.

Gold is not excluded, but most of the purchasing power goes in silver because you see the return to near the 15 to 1 ratio as the panic progresses. So yeah, we’ve passed 36, we’ve passed 37 briefly, but really, this is nothing. Nothing! You’ve got nothing! Nothing! The world is not going to be a very hospitable place. With silver at 2,418, it’s going to be up to silver stackers and gold stackers to rebuild the derivation of labor once that happens. And the last thing I’ll say is, don’t be like Walter Sobjak and put a million dollars in cash in your car while you go bowling.

Keep your silver somewhere safe, maybe like a dirty man safe. Use the link in the description below, or you can always support our sponsor, Kootenai Silver, symbol K-O-O-Y-F in the U.S., symbol K-T and in Canada. And with that, I’ll see you guys next week. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.