A federal court ruling blocked most of the Trump administration’s recent tariff likes, declaring the use of emergency economic powers unconstitutional for this purpose. However, the White House is expected to quickly pivot to alternative legal authorities preserving its broader tariff agenda. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and this is the Gulfics Morning Rundown. Here’s our lovely homepage. Special Edition. Special Mercantilism Edition.

I’ll get to that in a second. First, the most important story here is gold dips and the silver market rips as the court blocks Trump tariffs. And you can see that title there. And then the second thing we want to talk about, a little bit lighter on request, actually. Bridgeport, you know, the famous hedge fund, Ray Dalio’s fund, the CIO of that fund, put out a paper in December of 24. So January 25. And he goes through his mercantilism thesis and a founder pointed it out to us and he pumped us up enough so that we’re going to do something on it.

The reason we’re making a big deal of it, other than the fact that we were early and right, is because there’s a special contingent of pro Mercantilist people and they have a penchant for gambling on things that I say. So we’re going to review the Mercantilist article by Bridgeport. And I guess maybe they want to do an over-under on how many times I say the word. That’s the Arcadia group. So shout out to them. I don’t know, maybe a dollar for each over and under. I don’t condone gambling, you know. Let’s say the over-under’s like probably eight to ten.

I don’t know. But you have to count the ones I said already, too. So any version of the M word. All right. So let’s get to the actual news. Well, there’s the homepage again. Let’s go through the markets. Very pleasant development yesterday. We’re going to talk about that in a second. But here we go. Ten yields are $4.50 up two and a half. The dollars, 100 spot one even. Up 12, 13. Yes, we 500, 59, 41, up 27, giving back a lot of its gains overnight. VIX is 19, 25, offered unchanged. Gold is 32, 99, up 11, was up 15, was down about 30.

Silver 33, 41, up 45, was down I think maybe 20. All of that’s the whole move on the news item that we’re going to discuss. Copper, 466, up 3. WTI, 6243, up 21. Natural gas, 327, up 3. Bitcoin, up almost 1,000. PGM’s bid. Palladium catching up the platinum somewhat. And grains are mixed with soybeans completely unchanged at the moment. And China stocks are up another percent. All right. Let’s start with the main story here. All right. Last night, a federal court ruling blocked most of the Trump administration’s recent tariff likes, declaring the use of emergency economic powers unconstitutional for this purpose.

However, the White House is expected to quickly pivot to alternative legal authorities preserving its broader tariff agenda. And there’s a story there. Breaking, we just emailed that to everyone. Court blocks Trump tariffs, gold dips, silver rips. An appeal has been filed but is unlikely to resolve within the 10-day window. Revenue implications are significant. This is the most important part if you’re on the financial side. Revenue implications are, well, the tariffs were expected to raise nearly $200 billion annually, roughly matching the projected fiscal year 2026 deficit increase under current fiscal proposals. So the big beautiful bill and all that stuff.

There are a lot of implications here. So starting at the first level, we’re in it. It’s going to get more complicated, more nuanced, and more litigious. The left likes to litigate and use that to slow people down. I told you that’s what they’re going to do with Trump. They’re going to slow play him. And Trump, who really, you know, politically is no stranger to litigiousness, knows how to push back. So it’s a fire-with-fire situation. With regards to the money itself, the shortfall, where will that money come from, if not tariffs? It hurts his tax cut bills, even if he wins.

The point is, congressmen, senators, will not commit to something if there’s uncertainty, right? They only bet on sure things, these people. So it becomes, again, much more complex and litigious. There’s more on it. But I think we have Goldman Sachs’s analysis summarized for readers. And I think the best way to say it is just to paraphrase Zero Heads, just reading of it. And they said, Goldman thinks it’s a nothing burger. Goldman thinks it’s a nothing burger. We don’t. Materially, it’s a nothing burger. But we think it’s the beginning of a long, drawn-out process, because they don’t need to beat Trump.

Just slow him down. And that’s how it works. Okay, for the gambling mercantile portion of the program. Yesterday, Bridgewater, it was pointed out to us that Bridgewater put out a story. We are all mercantilists now. Fascinating article. It’s a good read. And it actually was published in the Wall Street Journal. We have that article. We posted it a lot. And we’re going to read a little bit of it. But I’m going to give you the moral of the story up front. Self-congratulations aside, by the time even the best funds divulge things, it’s years after they have positioned themselves to take advantage of it at worst.

At best, they’re in a bubble created by their own success. And add nothing of value except when it solely behooves their interest. Read their work, but view it skeptically. You know more than they do now. All right. Here we go. The post. It’s a nice article. I’ll scroll up a little bit. Where is that? There it is. Bridgewater says we’re all mercantilists now. Here’s the article. Right? It’s a little bit of quotes in there that it’s like we said. But anyway, we’re not showing the wheel of mercantilism, Chris. Not today. I can’t squeeze it in.

But here we go. Chronologically, here’s some of the mercantile stories that we put. You can feel free to change your channel if you don’t want to hear this anymore. Mercantilism was Europe’s planned economy, 2021. Birth of the gold fixed mercantilism thesis, January 2022. Mercantilism’s rules, July 23. Trust mercantilism is why and why we need gold. March 2023. But there’s more. Contemporary applications and commentary. Michael Evers says mercantilism is back. 2025. Trump 2.0. Mercantile trade means weaker U.S. dollar and stronger gold. Tim Besant’s plan to weaken the dollar. 2024 after the election. Trump’s new American empire unfolding.

January 2025. Yellen’s disastrous China trip. April 2023. And that’s it. I mean, it’s just, it’s amazing. It’s amazing. And it’s amazing because if you think the legacy media is intentionally like hiding stuff from you, they’re probably not. They’re just clickbait whores. Anyway, they don’t add much value except when it blows them totally. All right. So moving on this weekend, uh, golfix makes, this is actually pretty important. Golfix makes the case for gold and oil over bonds long-term. Now we just want to give you a quick overview of that. We sent something to founders on this.

We gave it to them early up. Um, Goldman, all the banks are now looking at the treasury markets skeptically. All the banks are literally telling people you need an alternative to bonds. So depending on what division of the bank you are, you’re going to get a recommendation while the commodity side, which is probably the best side of Goldman, makes the case for gold and oil over bonds long-term. That’s not why we’re up today. We’re going to get to that in a second. The new nuclear age part three and China’s insurance mandate, those things will all be up either tomorrow or this weekend.

Related posts don’t get shaken out. Nice to be right. Gold’s up $12 after being down 30. Costco restricts gold purchases, founders special US dollar, US treasury analysis. Uh, Solana, Ethereum is one of Ethereum’s main competitors. Uh, Standard Trotter did an analysis on them and, uh, I’ll give you the spoiler alert. They think that Solana has a lot of work to do to be worth anything beyond meme coin, uh, use. They outline what needs to be done, uh, but that’s it. They’re just, they’re, they’re, they’re, they’re pro-Ethereum relative to Solana. Uh, and in the Sunday discussion, that was the master class thing.

Uh, data on deck on the 29th, uh, it’s 809 right now. So you got initial jobless claims and GDP. So I think GDP will be important. I’m not sure. I think the market’s looking at inflation now. Hard to tell. Okay. We’ll figure it out. Let’s go through the market and the behavior yesterday. Excuse me. All right. So they are the four markets. Top right, gold, top left, uh, S&P 500, lower left silver, lower right dollar. We’re going to ignore the dollar. It’s just a space holder right now. All right. So we got gold and we’ll do our little drawing tool.

Yeah. All right. We got that. So here’s the news item. Tariffs are done. Boom. Goes to here. Long wick on an hourly vampire. All right. Let’s draw. Let’s, uh, so there you go. The market is now higher. That’s a short term overbought signal. In case you’re wondering, let’s move on to silver. Silver also has a dip. Now, even though it’s a longer wick and it looks, you know, bigger because it’s silver now barely got below this line here. And now it’s higher above us above an important level position wise. I still have those calls, but technically the system, uh, uh, the, the bull signal I had, it can happen again, but it might be getting a little bit stale.

Just, you know, it’s not, I’m not as euphoric about it. That doesn’t matter. I’ll jump up and down about it yet, but look at this behavior. You have to be happy about that. Stocks. From the get-go, they’re firmer, right? The news, the rally, and now the pullback. So two things jump out. At me, whenever there’s bearish news on gold, that’s also bullish for stocks. Stocks go up. Gold goes down. Stocks historically stocks stay up. Gold drops more. Now what we’re seeing in a, in a smaller timeframe, you know, it’s not big picture yet, but big picture.

It’s already there. We’re seeing stocks go up. Gold go down. So far, normal. And then stocks erode their gains and gold erode its losses. It’s a new market, kids. Uh, we did say, uh, don’t get shaken out. That wasn’t related to this. Sorry. A lot of people, a lot of, uh, uh, subscribers were, were active last night in the chat. And so I had to drop in and say, I don’t know, you know, but the, the, the don’t get shaken out. Wasn’t in, in relation to that. Uh, but this little thing that happened last night is a microcosm of what’s going on.

Every time gold gets sold because of, uh, uh, bullish trade news, you know, bullish for the global economy. Somebody’s going to sell it. Okay. Now, if you subscribe to my comment that the COMEX is dying, there’s no buyers and there’s no sellers on the COMEX. So you’re going to see, you’re going to see smaller players sell it and then cover, sell it and then cover. And so you kind of create a, a little bit of a snowball effect, uh, raising the floor. Speaking of the floor, let’s check on those lines. I swear I haven’t looked yet, but I know where it’s going to come in.

There’s the dollar and there’s the lines. That’s it. That’s the bottom. That’s the China buying. What flavor of China buying is it? I don’t know, but I’ll tell you this, it’s there and the bigger banks know it as well. Okay. Um, that’s it. Look, we should have an update right now. I mean, we’re only up $14. If the GDP is nothing, uh, negative for the, for the market, we should work our way higher the rest of the day. Now we should, we’ll say, so, you know, look at it as a range between here and here.

Now silver on the other hand, on the good other hand, the longer percolates, the more it moves. It’s really, uh, there are shorts in this market now. And they’re looking at the gold silver positions that are starting to cover. It’s going to happen. I don’t know why, but it’s going to happen. All right. Have a great day on this. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license, financial trading advice, and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.