Draw your attention to the top left-hand story. That’s an original piece of podcast. And some of the observations in there are spreading. I wouldn’t say it started with us. I would say that people from different perspectives are coming to the same conclusion we are. That is the COMEX demise. Not everyone is saying the COMEX is on its way out. No one’s cheering that. I think what people are noticing is not only did the U.S. not drive this price higher from the fund perspective, but the U.S. non-commercials did not even participate. And they did participate by taking profits, but they did not drive this market higher for the first part.

And that’s because the buying was American bullion banks or bullion banks covering during American hours. And that implies that price is being set somewhere else. And that somewhere else is China. So that’s why COMEX is on a death watch. As you kick out pricing control of a commodity that’s priced in dollars to a nation that’s not using the dollar, well, you eventually lose a leg that’s propping up global reserve currency status. And you can mark our words here. Next, it won’t happen tomorrow, but next China will introduce a global Yuan priced gold and people will start looking at it.

And you will see it on CNBC because the Yuan is displacing the dollar in increasing factor of trade. Global reserve currency? No, that’s not their point. Regional reserve currency? Yes, that is their point. You want for the Belt and Road Initiative? That’s it. And if you think gold is not important, well, you’re missing out. Any commodity that’s priced in dollars serves that as a support structure for the global reserve currency status. It is a marketing tool to see the dollar on chirons, on tapes to say, I’m going to buy this. How many dollars does it cost? But when you start changing control of price to China and the people in China say, why the hell are we pricing this in dollars? Let’s price this in Yuan.

You’re going to see that. It’s coming. It’s coming probably sooner than I think, but it’s coming. There’s plenty of evidence of that. Anyway, the dollar is really, really getting knocked down methodically, a leg at a time, and it’s been going on for years. Anyway, mini lecture over. The markets, 10-year yields are $4.35 down 3.5. The dollar is $99.38 down 39. The SP 500 is $53.60 down 22.23. The VIX is $20.47 a little bit, unchanged Bitcoin. Gold is $33.37 up 49.50 bucks. That’s one and a half percent. Silver, $33.46 down 11. You’re like, oh, what? Well, if you’re a listener to this stuff, you’re like, that makes perfect sense.

Copper, $4.85 up four, I should say. WTI, $63.54 up 84. Natural gas, $2.97 down six. Bitcoin taking a break down a grand, $92.400. Play in 9.45 up eight. Platinum, $9.78 up four. Gold server now finding a new home at $99.99, $198.102. Soybeans, corn and wheat all up about 30 basis points, $10.41 up three, $4.70 up almost two. Wheat, $5.43 up one and a half. Okay, there’s the front page. The JP Morgan story there, that’s basically our version of a news item. We don’t do those too often, but we figured, why not? CNBC and Yahoo did it, so we could do it too.

Anyway, we’ll do some analysis on that later on. Today featured, these are stories that came out yesterday. Deutsche Bank explains why gold’s downside is limited. We’re going to touch on that today. Scott Passent’s keynote speech on the IMF, which is kind of interesting. And then another report from Deutsche Bank, that’s the day before and then the JP Morgan thing. Let’s get on right with it. Analysis, Deutsche Bank triples down on gold. Deutsche Bank believes there is a limit to the extent of a gold correction lower. The bank argues it is not reasonable to expect a quote, winding back of the clock to a pre-tariff shock world from Tuesday’s developments.

They put out notes on Tuesday and Wednesday saying this. They’re not saying it with the market up 50. They were saying it with the market down 50 to 150. In a note titled, Spot the Difference published April 22nd in the midst of the gold sell-off, they said, we believe that the demand picture makes a greater than 5% correction unlikely from today’s US dollar, $33.95 per ounce. This indicates a likely floor around US dollar, $3,200 an ounce. The key constituents of the demand picture include the expanding role of the official investment, Asian physical investors’ acceptance of a higher price, and greater China ETF flows, not US fund buying, we would add.

Now, official investment, that means government investment. That’s PBOC and whoever else is buying for them behind the scenes. Asian physical investors’ acceptance of a higher price, that’s a very nice way of saying FOMO is on the radar. We’re not the worst China gets, the even more likely these people are to buy gold. It’s a stability thing. If China gets better, they’re going to buy gold, too. It’s the West all over again, guys, and greater China ETF flows reflect that. There’s a graphic they have in there. There aren’t too many graphics in this report, but there is a graphic in there that we think is kind of interesting and juxtaposed.

On the left-hand side, gold positioning more closely linked with prices in 2018, 2019, and the right-hand side, Shanghai gold premium rose despite issuance of commercial bank gold. Okay, their titles are the story, right? Gold positioning is not mirroring and therefore will not affect the behavior of the gold price as it did in 2018, 2019. There just ain’t enough people putting positions on in COMEX. And we wrote and read COMEX paper matters less. And on the right, they note that Shanghai gold premiums, which have a habit of going up right before the government releases gold allocations, went up, backed off, we noted, and then went back up, which is unusual.

Usually they get satisfied. So despite the issuance of quotas, they bought more. So taking those two pictures together on the left, COMEX paper matters less. And on the right, China physical matters more. The next day, that was the first day, right? The next day, as the second leg of the waterfall sell-off was in full force, they doubled down from, quote, there is actually, this is the actual article, the second article, there is no winding back the clock for gold. If we combine a US insistence on pressing ahead with the aim of extracting material trade concessions with signals from key trading partners that negotiations will not be as smooth as President Trump hopes, then a smooth reversion to his status quo appears untenable.

That’s their way of saying, we don’t think it’s going to work. This all started April 7th with Deutsche Bank’s reemergence on the scene as a bank with a bias where they joined the ranks of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, UBS, and other billion banks with a coming out report of sorts entitled Deutsche Bank raises price targets of $33.50 on risks to the US dollar reserve status. They said that risks to US dollar reserve status. And we say that. Where they noted the true demand was Eastern, and that Chinese official demand had now begun to disseminate from the government to the rest of the region.

China’s in broadcast mode now. They have it. Now they’re broadcasting it. We have it. We’re buying more, and we can move the price anytime we want, whether that’s an official bias or not, but that’s what’s going on now. We’re in the broadcast dissemination thing. Quoting that report, the key constituents of the demand picture include the expanding role of official investment. That’s PBOC in the government. Asian physical investors accept some higher price and greater China ETF. I think I’ve heard that twice tonight. All right. Anyway, this paragraph here, very classy way of saying we’ve looked at what President Trump and Scott Besant, also known as President Besant over here, have said over the last two days.

And while we think it’s good, we do not think it’s going to be easy. They themselves, you know, Scott Besant said he himself said it’s going to take years to do this. So in English, the market is hopeful again, and hopeful for stocks is bearish for gold, and that’s why they don’t think this is going to work out that way as quickly as people think. So what makes them wrong? Well, they actually give some signs of what makes them wrong. They’re wrong if certain things happen, and you can read the analysis to see what that is.

The full analysis is available to premium subscribers in all three of those notes. Market recap. Wall Street ended higher and the dollar rebounded as optimism over tariffs and President Trump’s assurance that he has no plans to fire Fed share PS. He couldn’t anyway. Boosted investor confidence. Treasury yields were mixed. Gold declined as risk appetite grew while oil prices fell or report that OPEC Plus was discussing a possible output boost. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s TSX composite ended up 69 basis points at 24 spot 472. Information technology shares rose 3.33% to 25080.

Market news. Apple and matter are fine by the EU. That’s the EU tariffing us. That’s a pushback, right? What do we export in the US? We export services. Who’s a big consumer of US services? Well, Europe is. And so if we restrict the trade, if they restrict the trade of our services, well, there you have it. They’re not going to sanction us. They’re just going to fine us, right? Investors are relieved that Musk will refocus on Tesla, but worry about brand damage. I love this last line here. This is a mainstream media headline, but worry about brand damage.

There’s always a, but doesn’t he suck? AI boom under threat from tires, global economic turmoil. Yes. That’s actually a very good piece. Marlboro maker, Philip Morris lifts, profit forecast on the Z in demand. Welcome to the seventies folks in the seventies and eighties. It was, if you think it’s going to be recession, you buy vice. So it’s going to go from woke to vice tariffs may mean more us steel jobs. Will there be workers to fill them? Probably not because everybody is running around. Protesting tariffs, restrain us business activity boost, asking pressure products.

That’s a stipulationary story. Uh, post stories, full stories, not post stories, full stories and recaps are in premium Thursday, core durable orders, a business investment for March. Uh, let’s do a summary, do a quick look at the market. Final market check. Here we go. All right. You have four charts there. Let’s hide the, uh, my, my art, uh, dailies, right-hand side gold, it, you know, that’s, that’s a poly algorithm. Uh, it’s in the middle of, of a range. If you look at their, the two levels that are there and we, we like those levels.

Those are the ones that we draw before. Um, we’ll come back to gold in a second on the left silver is once again in the moving average zone. So I would say to you, if you’re looking at these moving averages as we are, you don’t care about them as an indicator until they change slope or until they cross, but changing slope is more important than crossing right now. Lower left-hand side, that’s the dollar bouncing off the lowest SP 500. I don’t know why I have my bulger minutes open on that, but let’s go to the hourly.

Let’s give you a little focus on gold despite what Deutsche bank said. I’m going to tell you not to be crazy yet. The lightsaber, the poster from star wars, the evening star, the shooting star, whatever the heck it’s called. This is not over. If you want to get long, you’re trading intraday from here to here, hoping for that before it gets down there, right? If you want to get long, expecting that the next leg higher while speaking for myself, I wouldn’t even think about getting long until we get into this body.

I wouldn’t even get long until above here. That’s a momentum style trading. If you’re buying dips and you’re trading, that’s the way you’re trading. You’re trading regression to the mean, right? Another way to look at it through my little drawing thing up here is we talked about this yesterday, right? Speed, right? Faster, faster. Well, if you’re hoping the market gets back to this trend again, you’re brain damaged. I mean, it will probably, but your brain damage to expect that that’s not a high probability trade, right? If you’re waiting for the market to get back down to here, you know what? You’re either really big picture or you’re also brain damaged.

If you go in here, that’s not crazy to hope for. 3,200 also coincides with the Deutsche Bank level. It’s a nice round number, et cetera, et cetera. However, if you want to be long now, it’s not a bad idea to just say, you know what? This is long spuking in the west. This, between here and here, is someone big buying it, right? Who was buying it on the way down? Not anyone who’s just punting. Funds were getting out of the way. They were running away from themselves. So between here and here, that’s your buy zone.

So if there’s a well in there, whether it be China, whether it be a bullion bank covering shorts, whether it be an insurance company out of China, that’s in there. So maybe you want to be long here and risk below here. I don’t know. I’m not playing it that way, but that’s one way that I would play it if I wanted to. Anyway, so on a shorter term basis, trade the range, but it’s good to trade now. Very good. All right. What else? Bitcoin. Bitcoin. Phenomenal, right? I mean, for me anyway, looking at how it’s behaving.

Okay. So what do you have? You have Bitcoin has gone from it’s a tech stock to it’s correlated with energy. That was like three days ago. I heard that somewhere. It’s a safe haven emerging. And all three of those are probably true, you know? It depends on where you are. So it looks like Bitcoin is being priced as a risk, being priced as a risk on gold again, right? It’s, you know, part tech, part safe haven. But I’ll tell you this, as the global reserve currency keeps taking shots, like the cool max, like the fact that pal’s not easing part of that is political part of it is likely also because, you know, he doesn’t know what’s going on in bonds.

He doesn’t want to have to use yield curve control. So maybe he doesn’t want to ease yet. The other part is, you know, he just doesn’t like Trump. He’s definitely a politicized person, whether he likes it or not. Well, as this continues chronically, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, but chronically over the long run, Bitcoin goes up. Okay, Bitcoin goes up because for no other reason, the dollar goes down. If we get the bond, I mean, really, this is like, this is really key here. If we get the, to get the bond market under control, the dollar must go down.

To get the dollar to go down the way we want it to, we must, pal, must get the bond market under control, which is why the dollar will keep going down over the next five years because we don’t want it to be strong. The U.S. doesn’t want it to be strong. The world doesn’t want it to be strong. They’re going to find a way to make it not strong. And that’s why, you know, Bitcoin’s your risk on gold. Anyway, that’s our comment on that. Have a great day, everyone. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lance.

We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show, and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.