➡ The article discusses the current situation of gold leasing, where banks borrow gold to meet short-term needs. However, as more people claim their gold, less is available for leasing, causing a shortage. The article suggests that some banks may be covering up the fact that they don’t have enough gold to meet their obligations. It also mentions the possibility of gold being double-counted on balance sheets, creating a complex situation. The article ends by predicting changes in the monetary use of gold, especially after the Ukraine war ends.

➡ Vince Lancy’s Markets and Metals show provides daily updates on gold and silver markets, including recent developments like gold trading over $3,000 per ounce. The show is not meant to be financial advice, but rather a source of information. For more detailed analysis, they offer the Arcadia Economics Gold and Silver Daily, a written column that delves into market trends and issues. Always consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions based on this information.

The US government seeing this and knowing that it had extensive IOUs on its own gold. It does. It did. Along with moths in pick two. That’s the pick right there. Sitting in Fort Knox either began calling their IOUs back or US bullion banks, seeing the collateral was scarce, started securing gold to satisfy their own Fort Knox IOUs. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious Met news. Get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince lancy. It’s Monday, March 17th, St.

Patrick’s Day. Happy St. Patrick’s Day to my fellow Irish brothers and sisters. Okay, 10 year yields are 429, down 3 almost dollars 10352 down 20s and P 500 is 5624, up nothing. The Vix is 2212, up 34. Gold is 3000 and roughly 30 cents, up 15. Silver is 3380, down 3 cents. Copper is 488, up 5 cents. Interesting. WTI 6825, up 99. Natural gas is 424, 425 up 10. Bitcoin is 83.56, up a thousand. Palladium is 972, up 10 and change. Platinum is 999. Nice run there. Up 5 since that UBS report we would add. And there’s fundamental reasons as well.

Gold, silver, 88, now comfortably below 90 on the way to 75. Let’s hope. Soybeans, 1106 unchanged. Bid. Corn, 454, up 6. Wheat, 573, up 12. Okay, so just looking at this board for a second here, two factors, domestic and Asian. Right. I’m just going to focus on those two. There’s more than two, right. Domestically, stocks at a very, very Good Friday, up 2%. So a big bounce off of a correction low, at least for now. And commodities are following suit. So you would make the case that if stocks are off the low and the dollar continues to weaken, then the markets are starting to think that a Fed cut is going to be coming again.

So the markets are going from, oh, there’s only one cut this year to okay, we’ve dropped enough for the Fed to cut again. And the interesting thing about that from a commodity and gold perspective is if this is representative of the marketplace, and I’m not saying it is, then stocks are bouncing off the lows and commodities are bouncing off on change. So stocks have been selling off while commodities in general, oil, not so much. But commodities in general have been stable in the stock sell off. Gold has been actually higher. So you can make the case that if the domestic vibe.

Sorry, that word propped up this weekend vibe session. If the domestic vibe is that the Fed’s going to possibly ease a little more aggressively this year for the remainder of the year, then commodities are outperforming stocks so far. Okay. The other thing is geopolitically, look, China is going to do. Bazooka is a word that’s been overused. China is now going to directly stimulate their consumers. The whole economy is housing related. Most economies are. And a China consumer with a house that’s cratering and a mortgage that’s underwater is very reticent to spend money. Okay, so that’s been a big problem for them.

It’s ingrained in them after, you know, 10 years of this to be very careful with their spending. But over the last, I’d say two stimulus events, China has, one, stabilized the housing market by guaranteeing mortgages, by lowering rates, by refinancing. And that has taken effect. Their housing has turned rather significantly. It’s off the lows. It’s not really high, but it’s off the lows. Their commercial real estate is not the issue anymore. And that has begun to filter into the consumer area. And, you know, China needs its domestic consumption to rise. And they’re going to do that, just not on the US Schedule.

But it’s happening right now. And so this latest stimulus comment, which came out yesterday or the day before, is that China is going to directly stimulate workers. The phrasing was they’re going to get more pay. They’re going to. It described what can only be some version of helicopter money. They want consumers to feel comfortable spending, whereas we’re trying to get our consumers to stop spending. All right, so there you go. That’s the geopolitical reason. And if that happens, that’s why copper goes up, that’s why oil goes up. Well, oil’s not really a big. Oil’s too big for China to do that with.

But silver, why is silver down given this? Well, you have to go with silver’s being sold because someone’s buying gold or someone’s been long gold and they’re saying, I’m going to hedge it by selling silver. Not a bad idea. Or this is just one day. We think silver is on its way to $35 relatively soon. So silver is an all at once kind of commodity. And moving on to the topics today, we’re going to be talking about a post that was put up on X over the weekend. That got a lot of attention. So I think it’s best to read that and fill in a little bit of detail because.

Interesting. So we’ll do that. Now. My microphone may be dropping in and out again. So let’s see. Are we working? Yeah, we’re working for the moment. News and analysis. These are the stories we put out since Friday. Right. The top three. Gunlock Gold’s going to reach 4,000. Now, he did an interview, a conversation with investors before gold hit 3,000 on Friday. So he’s respected in the bond market and that’s unlocked for all. And it’s also circulating in other areas like Market Watch, but that’s our original writing. Goldman. This is probably the most important story of the weekend for us.

Here’s why. Gold rally last week they put out a note on Friday describing that their upside target of 31 to 3300 with a possible kicker of 3500 at the end of the year is in jeopardy of being raised or it’s at risk of being too low. Hedge against collapse in real estate and real rates, not real estate’s. Why does my microphone keep shifting? All right, there you go. Hardnet has a whole thing where he’s talking about. He’s talking about primarily the stock correction. Okay. But there’s a small chunk that’s devoted to gold as a hedge against real rates or further geopolitical unrest.

Our podcast on that goes into the gold section extensively. As well as not giving short shrift to the stock portion. Gold tops 3,000, we project where it’s at. And I’ll throw you the numbers right now the numbers are 3,600 and 4,285. Why? Well, it’s projected, it’s not predicted, meaning based on a measure of ETF flows coming into the market. If the ETF flows continue as they are and end up at a high as they were in 2022, February of 22, then gold will be at 3600, no problem. Or 42, depending on how we count it. Founders are serious worried about gold volatility.

We’re going to leave you with this. That gold volatility is no longer expected to outperform in a rally, unless, of course, it’s a geopolitical scenario. All right, moving on to the actual story. There’s the front page. The story on X or the post on X we just put together was kind of like a dot connecting moment for us. So we shared it there and we’ll just share it again here. With a little bit proper connection. Over the last 30 years, bullion banks have been leasing gold from central banks. So it’s been happening for decades. That’s point one.

James Rickard’s books corroborate this. The New Case for Gold. He has a chapter that discusses this that people just kind of ignore, but they should. In point two, we said that Chinese physical demand has made it a little bit harder. A little bit’s a euphemism. It’s probably a lot of it harder to get gold for leasing. And stress began to form in that. That would be Zoltan’s crisis of collateral. Point three was the US government. Now this is where we start to have some conjecture here. The US government seeing this and knowing that it had extensive IOUs on its own gold.

It does. It did. Along with moths in pick two. That’s the pick right there. Sitting in Fort Knox, either began calling their IOUs back or US bullion banks, seeing the collateral was scarce, started securing gold to satisfy their own Fort Knox IOUs. Now this is all a narrative that has to be proven wrong because there’s nothing else out there that makes sense yet. Right? So there you go. That was actually connecting the dots between something Zoltan Pozar said and something Egon von Grantz said that inspired, reminded us of something that we had heard years ago. Right.

Next, bullion banks with exposure and risk need to replace gold that they were using. So bullion banks have been leasing gold for years from the bis. Okay, from central banks. So when you say central banks leasing it from central banks, think bis. The central bank leases the gold, but the BIS is the intermediary. The BIS is the customer service representative for century for bullion banks in that respect. And central banks are where they source it from. So leases got called, collateral got called. China demand started pulling gold out of Europe. And so it became a little bit harder to borrow gold for leases.

So you actually may have had to buy some of the gold back depending on who you were. And that created a kind of a musical chair situation. Musical chairs, in a sense that every time the music stops, let’s call that stopping a moment where the price closes at a certain price, right? Every time or an event of time goes by, every time it stops, everyone has to sit down and claim their gold in a semi true up, right? Lease rates are up. Well, little by little. Every time the music stopping chairs are being taken away, there’s less gold available to lease.

So bullion banks had relied on a game of musical chairs borrowing gold to meet Short term needs. But when enough chairs are removed, as the picture says, when buyers refuse to lease their holdings, that’s an old time short squeeze. Banks are forced to compete for an ever dwindling supply. That is what’s happening now. And we wrote that a couple of months ago. Point five was there are probably dump. And this is completely speculation, but when you connect dots, somebody’s underwater and other people are covering it up. There are probably double and triple counted gold leases sitting at central banks in Europe and maybe elsewhere.

Now, pick four. The EU is ideologically comfortable. Before we get into that, let me just put a little bit more meat on this. When the LBMA says right here, when the LBMA says gold is heavy, I think I’m literally quoting them. I saw the trolleys. And is it like when they try and make it an interest conversation about the fact that they cannot satisfy their obligations, that they cannot deliver that which it is they’re supposed to deliver, then they cannot do their job. When they make it a story about, oh, you know, this gold is heavy or, or oh, you know, it’s really hard to do, that’s like, you know, that’s victim signaling.

Okay. That’s their job. Now when they say we’re having a hard time logistically because there’s so much volume and it’s going to take us a couple more days, I buy that. But when they also say out of the other side of their mouth, we’re borrowing gold from the bank of England at an increasing rate and it’s getting hard to get it. Bank of England’s not as forthcoming as they had been. Well, then you got to think something’s not right. And they’re hoping that this goes away as they always did, like they did with the energy crisis that they had over the winter of 22.

Okay, so that’s the background. Somebody doesn’t have the gold or doesn’t have the gold unencumbered. Okay. I think Ronan Manley might have said something about not this, but he said something related about, about gold being double counted. So for gold on a balance sheet, it’s counted as an asset and then if it’s loaned on someone else’s balance sheet, it’s counted as an asset there too. So it’s kind of like, you know, a daisy chain of gold. Leasing gold creates a daisy chain, which is something else that we contended. All right, so to the eu, the EU is ideologically comfortable with this, as are we, because they believe the leases will be honored when the gold is called buy them.

But the gold will never be called by them because they believe that gold is a pet rock and they’re right. And because all the gold on earth is available, well they figure at some point someone will sell it, you know, and if they don’t sell it, we’ll squeeze them to sell it. Meaning, you know, rates income, it’s a non performing asset, but no one is selling it. And it’s a crowded trade to be short gold, expecting people to eventually sell it to you, you know, on a long enough timeline type of stuff. The gold will never be called by Europe from the bullion banks.

Why? Because this is our opinion. Because doing that would be like revealing the emperor is naked. And so they will continue to self delude, kick the can down the road and hope that somewhere someone’s gold will be made available to replace their lease. So I’m a central bank, I’ve leased gold to a bullion bank and everybody else wants their gold. I’m a central bank, I’m going to call my gold back. If I’m the United States, I’m going to get my gold back. If I’m trying to, if I’m in Europe, it’s quite possible that I’m scared to do that because the bullion banks in Europe or the banks in general in Europe have so much gold leased from the central banks that the central banks really wouldn’t have the gold.

So it’s kind of like a, I guess it’s a Schrodinger’s gold type of situation anyway, so that was their, that was their behavior with, with green energy as well. And that’s 0.5. The new thing we want to add is all that remains from this little thing that I just put together here is an answer to why the gold is being brought back here to the US so briskly. And given the geopolitical backstop, Trump’s policies geared towards resetting the economic drivers of the US and a pressing need to stem debasement by deficit, meaning the dollar going to zero because of our deficit as opposed to being orchestrated to go down.

The answer will involve harnessing gold’s monetary power in some way to address these circumstances. Whether it be bonds, stablecoins, international mercantile money or a type of gold standard we will probably know after the Ukraine war ends. When that happens, money will never be the same. To get same again. The graphic you’re looking at there is, well, you may not be familiar with it, but that’s an eye popping graphic. A month ago that graphic did not have that long light blue line Going up, that long light blue line go up. Going up is the US pulling gold back out of Europe.

Okay, so the dark blue line is the world pulling gold out of Europe or the world repatriating gold. So this is all you know in 2022, 23, 24, that’s OTC gold. It’s not the gold that you see in your normal charts. This is a physical market gold. So in 2025 the US enters the chat, so to speak. And now you have a situation where Europe is being depleted from the east. And move. That’s an eye popping chart. And well, eyes are popped. Moving on market news, the market news. I’ll give it to you in four words.

Recession, fusion and stock lap dances. Fears of recession are growing and are acknowledged by best sense, which is fine. He’s saying grow up, we have to deal with it. Fusion, nuclear fusion they’re talking about again, probably won’t happen, but thorium reactors are happening and stock lap dances, dark pools are creating rooms within the room for exclusive conversation. Probably a champagne room with a scantily clad woman and a big bouncer making sure nobody cheats too much. So that’s the news there on deck this week. It’s not CPI and ppi, it’s the Fed. I’ll change that later on.

FOMC is this week and checking with the markets again. Oh, there’s silver, right, so there. Look, we’re above this, right? We’re going, we’re going. I’m going to get hung for this. We’re trading 33, 74. We’re going to $35. We’ll go to, we’ll hit 35 before we’ll hit 31. That’s my bet, right? That’s my trade and my position exhibits that. And above 35 we could go to 39 relatively quickly. But I’m not gonna, I’m not gonna stick myself on the chopping block for that prediction yet. So there’s gold, there’s a daily gold chart. And you can see we’re in rarefied air.

Are we gonna pause here? Are we gonna drop here or are we gonna go up? Well I don’t think this is a natural pausing place for funds to liquidate. In fact, I’ll show you. I’m talking about this here. That’s macro discretionary funds taking profits and bullion, banks buying from them. Okay, started in this area. This here is shorts getting in and longs buying dips. See this day here, that’s macro discretionary fund saying, you know what, let’s get in again. So I don’t think they’re getting in to sell it down here. I don’t think they’re getting in to buy it up here.

I mean to sell it here. I think they’re getting in because they’re looking for a bigger move. So if I had to, if you put a gun to my head on this, I’d have to say that gold is having a little sticker shock and saying, Wow, 3,000. What do we do? And everyone’s kind of thinking about it. So we could be here for a while. I don’t think there’ll be a big dip. If there is a dip, I think it’ll be bought aggressively because there’s probably some options around here. People talk about options. A lot of 3,000.

There were a ton of options there but they have since expired. So there wasn’t a lot of gamma going into this. So I don’t think we’re going to be pinned because of options behavior. But I think if you’re going to trade this, you should be short below Friday’s low for a quick short. See how it acts. If it gets down to here and if you want to be long this, there’s probably more buy stops above yesterday’s high. Anyone who sold it on Friday put a buy stop right above it. Nobody wants to be short this much longer.

I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. SA well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here.

Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again next week. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. Thank you to Vince and thank you all for watching at home. Sure hope you enjoyed that and that you’ve been enjoying the new world where we’ve seen gold trade over $3,000 per ounce. And especially with everything that’s happening. If you’ve been looking for an additional way, especially when you’re busy, to stay up to date on the main themes going on in the Gold and Silver markets well, would like to let you know that we have the Arcadia Economics Gold and Silver Daily where we provide a written column recapping the main themes of what’s going on.

And really what we aimed for here was to make this so that it’s easy and fun to read. It’s not super technical, but if you want to stay up to date on the things that are happening in the markets on a daily basis, especially as the gold price has just crossed over $3,000 an ounce, while issues in the silver supply remain unresolved and there are still questions about why so much gold had to leave London when there were never any tariffs on London. And those are the kind of things we dig into each day along with Fort Knox audits, tariffs and we mix in some video as well in there and keep it nice and short so you can get through it and stay up to date on the things that are going on.

So just click on the link on our substack to go to the Arcadia Economics Gold and Silver Daily, and I hope you enjoyed that and look forward to seeing you again soon. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching.
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