➡ The speaker is analyzing Bitcoin’s market trends, initially planning to buy at a certain level (86,680). However, after consulting with another trader and reviewing the data, they decide their initial level isn’t ideal. They now plan to make a decision at a higher level (around 90,000-91,200), potentially buying if the market exceeds this or selling if it falls below. They also mention a focus on gold repatriation and its relation to lease rates, hinting at potential changes in the Bank of England’s prices or global demand adjustments.

Gold lease rates, steep borrowing costs for gold indicates tightness in market. That is the truth. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. Today’s market rundown, we will be discussing gold lease rates, how they have recently exploded, and how that is in no small part due to repatriation or pulling of metal out of the LBMA towards the COMEX. Before we do that, let’s start with the markets.

The 10-year yield is 443 spot 8 up 1 and change. The dollar is 107.98 up 35 and change. The S&P 500 is 6074 up 9. The VIX is 1580. Unchanged bid basically. Gold is 28.62 down 4 and change was lower. Silver 31.99 down 28 was also lower. Copper 442 unchanged bid WTI 7190 up 25.26. Natural gas 362 up about 2 cents. Bitcoin showing some strength 98,600 and change up 2 grand. Palladium 986 down 7 and change. Platinum 990 up 6 and change. Gold silver now hovering below 90. So maybe we’ve hit a stability range between 88 and 91.

Grains soy 1060 up 4 and change. Corn 488 unchanged bid and wheat 585 up 2 and change. Okay, today’s discussion. Gold lease rates explode as repatriation grows to the U.S. in specificity. All right, let’s go to that. There’s the homepage. Light story day for us. We didn’t have a morning rundown. Heartnet China seek turns mag 7 into lag 7. Significant for bullion. I’m sorry, miner. Mining buyers because there’s a lot of money on the sidelines and everyone has been opining that when it comes back to the market cash, literally, it will go into the usual tech stocks.

However, we are now seeing signs that it is going into mining shares. So Heartnet had said in that story, he believes when the cash comes off the sidelines, contrary to conventional wisdom, the money will go into bullion and bonds, not as much tech stocks as usual. Well, I think we can add miners. So maybe he’s including miners under bullion, but since this post has gone up, bullion has gone up. Miners have gone up. And even before he said this in the previous week. Anyway, zero hedge. It has nothing to do with Trump tariffs.

That’s a story we put out a couple of days ago. It’s becoming truer by the moment. And here’s a story we just sent to everyone. Low left hand side. Gold lease rates explode as U.S. repatriation grows. That’ll be the story that we excerpt from today as it relates to what we see and what Bloomberg has reported. Here we go. Gold lease rates explode as U.S. repatriation grows. On January 30th, starting this off, on January 30th, we wrote about what we call the musical chairs of gold supply. The quote from that story. Bullion banks relied on a game of musical chairs, borrowing gold to meet short term needs.

But when enough chairs are removed, when buyers refuse to lease their holdings, this is before these rates spiked, by the way, banks are forced to compete for an ever dwindling supply. That’s what is happening now. From the story, a zero hedge edit, the LBM doesn’t have the gold. Now, yesterday, current events, yesterday, Bloomberg in an article entitled gold at Bank of England trades at a discount. Yes, I raised my eyebrow when I read that as tariff fears drive U.S. demand describes the current gold market situation. The article states that gold stored in the Bank of England, BOE vaults, is trading at a discount to the broader market as concerns over potential Trump tariffs drive a rush for physical bullion.

The surge in demand has created weeks long withdrawal delays. Well, like months, but, hey, weeks, make up months, making Bank of America gold less attractive than metal stored in commercial vaults. OK, moving on. There’s the headline. Gold dealers sell Bank of England bullion at discount in tariff turmoil. There are weeks long queues to withdraw bullion from BOE. Size of divergence extremely unusual amid rush to shift to the U.S. OK, the situation can perhaps be more aptly described using more free market, free market based terminology, meaning world gold prices are higher than in England.

And therefore Bank of America, Bank of America, listen to me, Bank of England gold is being pulled out as world prices equalize higher. Logistics are perhaps being used to throttle demand instead of simply raising Bank of England prices. To raise prices publicly would be to admit capitulation. In summary, the world currently wants its gold back with the USA currently leading the repatriation charge. This is the Bloomberg picture. We’ve edited it with a circle of homage to what zero hedge did, and we added 5 percent. So there you have it. Gold lease rates steep borrowing costs for gold indicates tightness in market.

That is the truth. The question you may rightly ask, and we’re not going to get into it now, even though we’d love to, is why do lease rates matter? And we’re going to get into we’re going to do a deep dive on that later on today, headed for the weekend. But simply put, if you’ve been tuned in for our explanations for EFPs, markets need to equalize supply and demand when the price stops moving supply and demand are in balance. EFP, the EFP spread, is an indication of supply imbalance and demand imbalance. So supply is not getting to meet demand, and the EFP is the first valve used to equalize that imbalance in bullion.

The second valve in the transatlantic bullion world is lease rates. As lease rates go up, they alleviate pressure off of the market supply demand imbalance, and if those don’t work, you see price spike to recalibrate at the final boss, so to speak. Okay, we’re going to go into that in much more detail, more than you probably want to know later on. But let’s continue reading this. The problem has been characterized solely as if the true global price is the Bank of England price. If the Bank of England price is the true global price, then the buyers trying to pull gold out of there are wrong.

Some would even say, not us, that the Bank of England logistics are throttling demand in hopes that prices equalize at the lower level sooner rather than later after the gold rush is over. We are not saying that is happening. The logistics problem is real. The LBMA and BOE are responsible or as responsible protectors of their market also had to know it was a risk given the events of the past three years, including the COVID crisis and multiple nations like India repatriating their gold. You simply cannot blame the customer for wanting to buy your product without raising eyebrows.

Time will tell when price equalizes between the two venues. We have a lot bigger editorial commentary in the post we just sent out, and I think you can understand where we come down on this and what we come down on it is that absolute power is easily abused. The full analysis as well as the breakdown of the Goldman Bloomberg story is entitled gold lease rates explode as US repatriation glows. There’s the link. In addition, a deeper discussion on this topic, including gold lease rates, as depicted in the chart below, and their implications will be recorded for premium subscribers this weekend.

We will do a dive into why lease rates matter. We will do a dive into how they really don’t mean historically that gold has to go up, what they really truly are an indication of, and how they can be an indication of a much higher price eventually if the lease then the price will go up until the gold is found. If the EFP was a canary in the gold mine, the lease rates are, I don’t know, a bunch of canaries. It depends on how long they last. All right, moving on. News and analysis, gold lease rates explode as US repatriation grows.

We’ve just been talking about that. There’s the zero hedge edit that we quoted ourselves on. The OBMA doesn’t have the gold. Specifically, the OBMA did not have the gold available, whether they actually have the gold or not is a different story. They have plenty of gold for lease. First of all, they have plenty of gold. Number one, more than is demanded right now. Number two, they have plenty of gold for lease, available for lease, more than is being asked for right now. The question is, is that gold that is available for lease, willing to lease it at such low rates with prices this low? Or are they saying, I think I’ll get a higher price before I sell mine.

Special note we put out yesterday, that’s regarding the market. And I found this comment on tariffs, a little bit of employment rate this week, productivity today. There’s a little bit of note on the premium lease rates. We’ll tell you that there’s some notes that I’m writing for the premium story right now. All right. I want to look at a chart and it’s not gold. I want to look at Bitcoin. For the past, let’s say, month, I’ve been looking at this chart on Bitcoin. And I’ve been saying, let me get rid of the moving averages.

We’re not really, we don’t really care about them in Bitcoin right now. I’ve been looking at this and saying, this is a topping type of formation. When it did this, I said, okay, maybe we’re going to hit here. And then it bounced up and I said, okay, maybe I’m wrong. The point is I’m looking for a dip to buy, or perhaps a level to sell for momentum purposes. And now the market’s really nicely doing this. And I’m saying, oh, my level, this dotted line here, 86, 680, that’s my level to buy if I want to buy a dip.

And I looked at this and I said, yeah, this is good. But then I saw an old school crypto trader, Tyler Durden, no relationship to zero edge, who is a true technician and trader. He’s definitely flow oriented as well. And he was looking at it from a monthly point of view. And I looked at it and I went, I looked at my level on a monthly point of view. And I said, my level sucks. I don’t want to buy it at this point. I want to buy it above that, perhaps sell it below that and cover my short at this point, speaking to you as a charter.

So this formation might be a pennant that’s going to resolve itself lower. It might end up being a flag. That’s a continuation. Nobody knows, but I will say this, my level sucks. Now put it on a weekly to give you an idea. This is not a level to buy. This is a level to buy. This might be a level to sell. So anyway, I’m adjusting my level to make a decision higher to approximately looks like about 90,000, 91,200. So I’ll make up my mind there. Maybe I’ll buy it there. And if the market goes below 91,000 or 90,500, I’ll reverse and get short.

But the point is as a trade, if this structure breaks, you can easily see 74 and change. So I’m an idiot, right? If I want to buy it here, which is where I was roughly on the way to this. So there you have it. In summary, let’s put a gold back up here. In summary, today’s focus for us is the gold repatriation as it relates to lease rate, as lease rates relate to it. And going forward, we’re looking at how this will resolve itself, what resolve itself with the Bank of England raising its prices or with the rest of the world capitulating and slowing down its demand.

I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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