➡ Bitcoin has reached a value of $100,000, following a 300-year pattern that has repeated five times and has significantly impacted technology, wealth, and the world. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin’s value could continue to rise, potentially reshaping the future of wealth creation. The video discusses the psychological impact of Bitcoin’s value on investors and the potential for future growth based on historical models. The presenter, Mark Moss, emphasizes the importance of looking forward rather than backward when considering Bitcoin’s value.
➡ The text discusses a recurring cycle in technology and investment, occurring roughly every 50 years, which consists of four phases: eruption, frenzy, synergy, and maturity. This cycle has been observed in the rise of technologies like the microprocessor, personal computers, and the internet, with each phase marked by significant growth in value. The text suggests we are currently in the ‘frenzy’ phase of a new cycle, driven by technologies like Bitcoin, AI, and quantum computing. This phase is characterized by wider adoption and rapid growth, suggesting significant investment opportunities.
➡ Bitcoin, a digital currency, is expected to grow significantly by 2030, potentially reaching a market cap of 21 trillion dollars. This growth is based on Bitcoin’s ability to disrupt traditional store value assets like gold, real estate, and bonds, taking a small portion of their value. However, this doesn’t mean these assets or the dollar will become worthless. Instead, Bitcoin’s growth will be a result of it pulling value from each of these areas, similar to how companies like Uber and Airbnb disrupted their respective markets.

Bitcoin just hit a hundred thousand and now it’s pulling back. So is this the moment that everyone’s been waiting for or the one they’ve been fearing? But what if I told you it’s totally different? What if I told you this isn’t just another milestone? It’s actually part of a 300 year pattern that predicts exactly what happens next. Now for the last three centuries this pattern has repeated itself five times reshaping technology, wealth, and even the world. Now Bitcoin is following the same blueprint. But what it means for the future is where things get truly shocking.

So in this video I’m gonna break down this 300 year pattern. I’m going to show you what it reveals about Bitcoin’s next move and why this moment could define the future of wealth creation and give us a playbook for how to navigate all of this. My name is Mark Moss. I’ve been making videos on Bitcoin for about eight years. I coached thousands of investors on investing. I’m a leading Bitcoin venture capital fund called the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. I’m the CVO of Matador, a new public Bitcoin company, and these models are what we use as our guides.

So stick around because what happens next might surprise you and could even change everything. So let’s go. Alright so we’re gonna jump right into this and we’re gonna show you using historical models where Bitcoin goes well into the future. So the first thing is has Bitcoin hit the ceiling or is this a new floor? Now we hit $100,000 and yes it has been pulling back at the time this recording depending on when you’re watching this. So is this a buy the dip moment or is it sell it short before it goes out? Is $100,000 the top and really where does it go? Now we have to understand that when prices are going up they’re psychological levels.

So when Bitcoin hit a thousand that was a psychological level. When it got to $10,000 it was a level and now at $100,000 it’s a level. So we want to know where does it go from here? Is it too late? Is it too expensive or are we going much higher much faster? Well there’s a couple things we want to look at. So first of all as I said right it depending on when you’re watching this the price of Bitcoin is pulling back from that level the psychological level of $100,000 but I want to show right we sat at this level you have to understand things move up and down and now we’re in that same sort of a range.

But remember this is a psychological level and then we’ll use history to see where we go and one of the things that’s happening from the psychological level is Bloomberg which makes the Bloomberg terminal you see me using charts from Bloomberg terminal all the time it’s about 20 to 30 thousand a month for a subscription to it to pull charts. This is where I mean if you’re gonna afford 30 thousand a month this is where the institutional allocators play and you can see in the Bloomberg terminal it now shows the Bitcoin price as a percentage of 1 million so it’s no longer showing 80,000 or 100,000 it’s now showing it as 0.1 million now the reason why this is important is because what’s known as unit bias so a lot of people think that Bitcoin is too expensive so I’ll buy something cheaper like Dogecoin for example the unit bias makes them think that they should buy something cheaper but now the unit bias of allocators institutional allocators now shows it as a fraction of 1 million what do you think that does to the psychological level of these institutional allocators the reason why I point at that for a second is because a lot of times when we’re looking at macroeconomic pictures we’re looking at what central bankers and policies will do you can’t just look at the data this is the gripe that I have with a lot of the people that are on YouTube that I’m friends with I speak at conferences with that are very very smart some of them smarter than me but they take out they don’t take into account the psychological level the psychological reasons behind these they look at the data only and you miss out a big piece now another big psychological piece that we can talk about is Trump who now wants to be the Bitcoin president as a matter of fact he tweeted out congratulations Bitcoiners on this hundred thousand dollar level he said you’re welcome so think about this from a psychological level Trump has now taken credit for the pricing in that level I don’t give him credit for it but he’s taking credit for it so now psychologically he doesn’t want to let that fall he wants Bitcoin to be his legacy making America great again so where does that take Bitcoin how do we put that into account now the last thing I want to say before I jump in and show you the historical model that’s been hit 300 times five times before I say that I want to just say one more thing about unit bias and that is if you think about Bitcoin hitting a hundred thousand or whatever it’s 95,000 today is it too late and the question I would ask is the problem that most amateur what we call the dumb money there’s the smart money which is institution alligators there’s dumb money which includes you and I what the dumb money gets wrong is that most of those are looking in the rear view mirror so what do I mean by that let’s just use real estate for an example you know my real estate background a lot of people that I worked with invested with even my family had bought a lot of properties in Florida going into the 2005 6 2007 when the real estate market was taking off of course that real estate market crashed in the great financial crash of 2008 the bottom of that market happened around 2011 2012 for most of the most of the US so the bottom was set in which was way cheaper than where it had been in 2005 2006 2007 so 2012 was the bottom and then the price started going back up again by 2000 you know 14 2015 Florida had started getting pretty good again the prices were pretty high and a lot of investors real estate investors at the time were saying oh no it’s way too expensive it’s way too expensive and I said too expensive compared to what right our brains are comparing mechanisms they were looking in the rear view well it was too expensive it was way more expensive than it was in 2012 at the very bottom it wasn’t more expensive from where it was in 2008 at the peak and it certainly wasn’t expensive compared to where it was going as in like 2020 2021 but it was too expensive compared to where it was they were looking in the rearview mirror that’s what a lot of people get wrong about Bitcoin it’s too expensive because it used to be 10 cents or 30 cents or 1,000 or 10,000 or 50,000 and now it’s a hundred thousand you’re looking in the rearview what we want to do is we want to look in the windshield you should be driving in the windshield not in your rearview this is what venture capital investors do this what we do in my venture capital fund we look at a brand new company that’s just starting maybe no revenues yet and we try to think in there in the windshield where will this be how much could it be in the future we don’t go well you just started it’s worth nothing so it’s too expensive now no we’re looking at a forward-looking and so let me show you how we can use history to then project forward okay so the first thing we’ll do is we’ll go backwards in history then we’ll go forward into the windshield okay so 300 years of data it’s pretty good it’s pretty comprehensive as a matter of fact if you think about it and if we think about things in terms of cycles which I use a lot of and when you think in terms of technical analysis we have things that what we’d call maybe a triple top before breakout or sometimes there’s a triple bottom before it falls down and what happens is each time it tests that level it builds up strength it builds up energy for a bigger move now what happens is as it continues to test and retest and retest it builds confidence that will happen let me give you an example so most of you if you’re watching this video you probably already know about Bitcoin you know that every four years there’s a halving cycle so that means the new supply of Bitcoin being added gets cut in half every four years now you can see that we’ve had four of these halving cycles so far the first halving cycle second third fourth and you can see that each one leads to a big move up because it’s a supply shock supply and demand you cut the supply in half the price moves up now I think there’s something deeper I think it has to do with global liquidity cycles we’re not gonna get into that right now if you want another video on that leave me a comment down below but about each every four years the supply gets cut in half the price moves up this pattern has basically repeated every halving cycle now for four times when I ask people do you think it’s gonna happen again a fifth time most people would say yes it’s happened four times almost identical why wouldn’t it continue to happen on the fifth time okay so that means there’s four times that means the confidence of it happening a fifth time is higher now if it happens ten times the confidence of it happen another time is even higher right okay so let’s take a look at this cycle that’s happened five times and we’re on our sixth time right now and you might say well there’s pretty good chance it repeats again and I would say yes so about every 50 years we have what I call this quantum leap this technological cycle that happens where the world moves in this quantum leap it’s happened one two three four five times and it’s now happening its sixth time more than the Bitcoin halving cycle and it’s played out almost identical every single time and the beauty is that we can use this historical cycle to then overlay into the technology cycle that we’re having today now one important piece it is not just about Bitcoin it’s what I’m calling the decentralized revolution so it’s a cluster of technology several technologies that come together to give us a new set of building blocks so we have Bitcoin we have AI we have quantum computing all of that coming together could give us a new set of building blocks so now we’re on the sixth one that’s happened alright so let’s take a look at what this pattern is that unfolds and how repeatable how reliable this pattern is so we have to understand that there’s four different phases inside of this 50-year cycle now it’s not exactly 50 years it could be 40 it could be 70 but it’s around that range and we know there’s four phases into that now it sort of looks like this there’s two stages and there’s four periods and this is another term in technology we call this diffusion so how long it takes for this technology to reach adoption so we have what’s known as the Big Bang and it goes into the eruption phase where this new technology storms the scene so to speak erupts then we have the frenzy phase then we have what’s called the synergy phase and then finally the maturity phase now it’s important to note that it takes over where one cycle is ending the next one is beginning so personal computers telecom internet was the last cycle the last 50-year cycle I’m going to show you more about that in a minute and what happened is that the internet all of that started failing they started getting too centralized starts falling apart so we have the birth of a new system that will take over that energy but there’s the eruption frenzy those are two phases in in the first part and then we have synergy and maturity the two phases in the last one and it always works this way and then we’ll have the next Big Bang and the next cycle will start from there now if I overlay this with time periods just so you can see what we’re looking at this is 2010 to 2020 that’s the first phase 2020 to 2030 phase number two 2030 to number 40 phase number three and 2040 to 2050 would be phase four and that would complete this 50-year cycle within this and you might recognize this pattern right here if you’re a technology person I’m gonna come back to that in a minute but let me give you some examples of history so remember the last one started in 1971 and this was the microprocessor which brought personal computers telecom and the internet so the purse so that so the microprocessor was the first one 1971 the birth of the microprocessor with Intel now what’s important is if you map this from an investor standpoint a price little standpoint you map this technology cycle over with the price you see Intel here and what you see for the first cycle first part of the cycle first 20 years Intel price went up 23,000 percent in price 23,000 percent in price now that went up so so much so crazy that everyone looked at Intel said that’s got to be a bubble it’s so expensive there’s no way it can go up from here I need to go find the next microprocessor I need to find a cheaper microprocessor because it went up 23,000 percent I missed out oh always me I never catch these etc etc but what happened is that was phase one phase one in phase two right here it went up another 26,000 percent so everyone sat on the sidelines oh I missed out it’s too late it’s too expensive why didn’t I get in earlier and it went up even more 26,000 percent now I can show you example after example and I’m going to show you some more it wasn’t just Intel it wasn’t just microprocessors as a matter of fact like I said might the microprocessor brought us the boom of the computer and telecom and all of those we can see here Apple so then the microprocessor brought us personal computers now Apple went up 1.5 million percent 1.5 million percent in this first phase and again everyone said oh I missed it it’s too late why didn’t I buy it I always miss these things and they sat on the sidelines and then Apple went into phase two and went up another 50,000 percent from there an enormous amount and so what what happens is you can see these cycles are dependable reliable Microsoft I believe went up about was it 30 40,000 percent in phase one phase two went up over a million percent in phase two well everyone sat on the sidelines thinking that they missed it that it’s too expensive not realizing that these things move in cycles that makes sense all right so now that you understand that you’ve seen the historical relation to that let’s overlay this and look at where we are in this new age of decentralization and Bitcoin etc okay so the first thing you have to understand is that there’s again four phases and we can overlay them with phase one 2010 to 2020 being this eruption phase and really it’s the age of retail there’s the very first part of the technology of diffusion we’re just the true believers the early adopters the tinkers the nerds if you will they all start to come to play it’s a very small piece that’s retail but what happens is in phase two as we move from the first phase into phase two it’s now called the frenzy phase now this is where we start getting wider adoption where a lot more people coming it’s been proven out by the true believers the early adopters and now everybody else wants to jump in and get a piece of the pie and this is really illustrated through the institutional phase so right now you know the institutions the wall streets the ETFs the black rocks and yes even the governments the sovereigns are starting to come into this institutional phase which is why it’s a frenzy which is why it’s starting to move so fast okay now if we take that and we overlay it with another chart so we can understand this a little bit better we have the same chart now but now I’ll put something called an s-curve onto here an s-curve is a tool that we can use to measure adoption of technology but you can use it to measure other things like viruses even things like that and it and it’s a way to measure how fast adoption could get through a society so basically the way it works is the time it takes to go from 0 to 10 percent adoption is the same amount of time it takes to go from 10 percent to 90 percent adoption all right that’s the way this move so now we overlay the four different phases of the 50-year cycle and we overlay it with an s-curve and what we see is that while this part of the move again with Intel and Apple and even with Bitcoin everybody thinks they missed out oh my gosh it moved so much I wish I would have bought it before so they set on the sidelines we can see why the second part of the move is the biggest part of the move the frenzy it’s where the institutions where the sovereigns where they come in and I put some green lines here to show and illustrate this how big of this move it’s instead of moving linear it starts to move parabolic you can see that move right there and that’s why everyone thinks where this red line is they’ve missed out but the biggest move is here remember phase one is retail you and I and sure billions hundreds of billions of dollars came into the space certainly we saw go up but now with the frenzy phase with the institutions and the sovereigns we’re talking about trillions of dollars much bigger the move in front of us is going to be much bigger than most people can even imagine okay now where does that put us at the end of this phase two now we can go to phase three and phase four and that’s for another video but where does that put us at the end of phase two which will be somewhere around 2030 so is it too late for Bitcoin should I short it should I sell it should they get out of it will it keep going up should I go hunt for some smaller coins they’re gonna be more explosive is it gonna boom or bust well remember we can measure the slope so when we look at that s curve is helps us understand where that’s going but what we want to do is want to look at some historical numbers and then we want to look at some growth drivers and then we want to project that into the Ford this is what a venture capital would do if you’re investing in new technologies like uber and Airbnb this is what you would do is how we do it okay so we measured the slope I showed you that it goes nonlinear but instead parabolic so we understand that that means the growth the rate of growth should change okay so we want to look at the historical numbers and then we want to understand the drivers of these numbers so let me show you a couple things first of all I’ve talked about this before so Bitcoin is not competing as a new technology it’s not competing as a payment network it’s competing against the store of value assets value itself so we look at assets that work that are stored by assets like gold collectibles equities real estate bonds money etc so if I was pitching on uber or Airbnb we would say well Airbnb is competing against hotels so the hotel industry is this big the total addressable market the Tam if I could take X percentage 5% 10% from the Tam of the hotel market it’d be worth as much uber disrupting taxis limos vans etc so Bitcoin is taking value it’s disrupting all these store value assets it’ll take a little bit from gold a little bit from collectibles equities etc now this is from 2020 to where I project things to be a 2030 let’s just start here the money supply was 95 trillion dollars in 2020 and I project it to be somewhere around 205 trillion which is 8% growth throughout the decade now 8% is a little bit low now the reason why is not only do we have historical numbers but we also look at the growth of this so the government the United States government the US dollar the reserve currency the world the CBO is the Congressional Budget Office they give us these numbers they project out where we’ll be through the next 30 years by 2054 now currently the money supply the Fed balance sheet is growing by 13% a year so I’ve only put 8% I’m under shooting this a little bit to give us a little bit of conservative numbers bonds they’re 300 trillion in 2020 I project them to grow by 5% a year to 488 now if you understand this I talk about this all the time when the money supply goes up real estate and equities are basically perfect proxies for those so I put them going up by 8% real estate goes to 700 trillion equities goes to 205 trillion gold goes from 11.5 right now I think we’re about 14 15 it goes to 20 trillion and I project bitcoins it started at 530 billion or point 5 trillion 2020 we’ll get to 21 trillion market cap which is only a 50% growth rate now when I say only 50% per year right now the last four to five years it’s been going up about 60% so I project it will slow down a little bit going into the rest of the decade and end up at about 21 trillion market cap now to put this into some perspective for us that means total store value assets go up to about 1.6 almost 1.7 quadrillion by that time at that point Bitcoin has only captured 1.25% of the store value assets it’s about on par with gold now what does that look like a lot of people think that in order to get there that you know the dollar has to die all these assets have to die but that’s not the case if we look at the store value assets we see real estate is the largest store value asset 700 trillion bonds 480 trillion equities 200 trillion money 205 trillion and at this point by 2030 gold and Bitcoin are basically about the same size 20 21 trillion so Bitcoin has grown by taking a little bit of value from each one of these but none of them are dead nor is the dollar a lot of people think well when Bitcoin is worth one million dollars then what’s the dollar worth how much is a tank of gas it doesn’t mean the dollar dies it means that it pulls value from each of those now it only taking one percent one and a quarter percent now is that realistic remember if I think like a venture capitalist we would say what markets are we disrupting remember uber and Airbnb are disrupting van taxi rides or hotels now we would project out what percentage do we think is realistic to capture over what period of time and so we’d say well how much do I think Bitcoin can pull from those others is 1% realistic well what did Airbnb and uber do well we know that in the first 10 years uber and Airbnb launched within the first 10 years they were able to capture take 10% of their market shares 10% in less than 10 years now we’re projecting Bitcoin by 2030 to only get one and a quarter percent which I think seems pretty low I think it’s a conservative estimate now where does it be in 20 or go in 2040 and 2050 that’s for another video but then again think about this so back to the question is it too late is Bitcoin too expensive too expensive compared to what too expensive compared to where it was when it was ten cents a thousand dollars or ten thousand or is it too expensive compared to where it is going to be in 2030 2040 and 2050 if I believe as I do it’ll be worth 1 million in 2030 but I can buy it today for only a hundred thousand sounds very cheap but let me know what you think put put it down in the description down below in the comments down below minute limit you think if you want me to release the other videos for 2040 and 2050 leave me a comment and let me know and that’s what I got all right to your success I’m out
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See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.