➡ Vince Lanci on Arcadia Economics discusses the recent financial and precious metals news. He mentions that the recent sell-off of precious metals was due to de-hedging, a strong US dollar, and expectations of a less aggressive rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve. He also talks about geopolitical uncertainties affecting oil prices and China’s decreasing oil demand. Lastly, he discusses the impact of US Treasury yields and the US dollar strength on gold prices.

➡ The article discusses the fluctuating prices of silver and gold, influenced by factors such as Western investors selling off, the strengthening of the dollar, and the return of physical demand for jewelry and other non-central bank uses. It also mentions the impact of central banks stockpiling gold and the potential effect of the Federal Reserve possibly skipping a rate cut in December. The article also touches on geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, and their potential impact on the global economy. Lastly, it provides a brief analysis of the current market trends for gold and silver.

➡ The speaker believes that there’s significant buying activity in the market, possibly from the East or BRICS banks, who are more interested in value than price. They also remind viewers to consult their financial advisor before making decisions, as the content is for informational purposes only. Enjoy your weekend and tune in next week for more market insights.

Precious metals. Okay, the recent sell-off was driven by de-hedging, a strong US dollar rebound, and expectations of a shallower, fed, rate cut cycle. If the Fed skips a rate cut in December, this may subdue the gold price in the short term. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. It’s Friday. Gold is strong, silver is strong, and oil is weak. We’re going to talk about World War creep and do an oil and gold update in that context.

From ANZ Bank, they have a periodic report out, and we’re going to go through that for you all. But let’s start with the markets. Ten-year yields are down 3 at $4.39. The dollar is $1.0762 of $59. The S&P 500 is $59.44 down 1. The VIX is $16.82. Down 4, gold is $26.98. Up 29, silver is $31.28. Up 50, copper is $4.06. Down almost a percentage point. WTI is $69.74. Down 67, natural gas is $3.08. Down 10. Bitcoin, $98.876. Got up to $99 and changed last night. Ethereum is down a little bit. Palladium, down 13. Platinum, down to gold, silver, lower.

But not low at all, really, when you think about it. And grains are mixed, but not really interestingly. All right. So soy is $9.77. Unchanged offered. Corn is $4.23. A couple cents. And wheat is $5.66 unchanged. Okay, there’s gold. There’s silver. We’re going to come back to that and how to interpret this in the context of the moving averages that I mentioned yesterday. And it’s playing out. Here we go. Home page, Trump 2.0, mercantile trade means weaker US dollar and stronger gold. There’s a zero hedge edit. Discussion, ANZ bank on oil and gold. This is a risk management analysis.

So we’re going to do this and let’s get the facts out of the way so we can look forward to the markets. ANZ says geopolitical uncertainties are keeping oil prices volatile, and we add but still net soft. High frequency indicators show a bleak demand outlook with China’s apparent oil consumption contracting by 4% year to date. A couple trucks to that effect. Oil volatility spiked amid geopolitical tensions. Those trucks may be small on your screen, but you can zoom in on them. Geopolitical uncertainties are keeping prices volatile, but still net soft. Now, on the left-hand side, they’re just showing the oil prices are volatile.

In the short term, and on the right-hand side, they’re saying that the backwardation, which is an indication of tightness at the physical level, is backing off. So there’s less demand quickly for oil right now, and everything else about this report confirms that, and we’ll get into that in a second. Next chart underneath there, China’s oil demand continues to contract. All right, high frequency indicators show a bleak demand outlook with China’s demand dropping 4% or more. China’s refining margins fell further. They’re making less gasoline, diesel, heating oil. Gasoline is not a big thing out there, but diesel is.

Diesel is more important anyway. China, apparent oil demand, apparent because we don’t know, it’s softer. Moving on to the next charts, this is where it starts getting more interesting. Inventory is withdrawal and oil product. So that basically says that US oil demand is tracking well. So US oil demand is fine, and that’s a sign of the economy doing well, but I’ll add a little color to it that you may not hear elsewhere. Oil processing is at a season high. So meaning right now they’re cracking the oil and they’re making heating oil.

They’re getting ready for the winter. So there’s plenty of oil around, right? But now they’re stocking up on heating oil. So the heating oil is being drained and being distributed. You know, people are coming around getting their tanks filled up. And so oil processing is at a season high. So it’s kind of like inventory and inventory out. And that’s going to continue even if our winter is mild, I believe. If Europe’s winter is harsh, our production will be sold there. Europe has become a consuming colony of our winter energy. Now, another example of that, an easier example to see is when I talked about the other day, natural gas.

Natural gas is spiking because of the Russian war. Well, imagine if it’s cold out there. OK, so which brings us to natural gas, gas supply disruptions meet winter heating demand. And there you have it. OK, Europe is I’m sorry, I wrote this one. So this is not ANZ writing this. Sorry, guys. Europe is screwed if it’s cold again, especially with any further delay in OPEC’s plan to phase out its voluntary production agreements beyond December will be crucial for the market. OK, so you get a cold snap in Europe. See, this is I love this stuff.

This is for Bryn, my oil maven, my energy maven. As the world starts pricing gold locally, so as gold becomes a local product, natural gas becomes an international product. So stepping out of the big picture stuff. Natural gas used to be US demand for US weather, Europe demand for Europe weather. Now Europe can’t get any from Russia, so they’re getting it from the US. So if it’s cold in Europe, our natural gas prices are going to go up. And if it’s cold here, their natural gas prices are going to go up.

It’s like one weather zone now. It’s just fascinating. LNG is a big reason for that. But in general, it’s all because we blew up a pipeline. And when you blow up a pipeline, we I don’t know who we are. Sorry, don’t come after me. When you blow up a pipeline and you make it impossible to heal your problems with Russia, not that they should be healed, but you make them dependent on us. And so American energy producers are going to make a shit ton of money again this winter if it’s cold. So the trade, what’s the trade? The trade is by call.

By call, if it’s going to be cold. I wouldn’t know how to express that, but that’s the trade because Europe is moving to coal. They have to. Next chart, precious metals. OK, the recent sell off was driven by de hedging, a strong US dollar rebound and expectations of a shallower fed rate cut cycle. If the Fed skips a rate cut in December, this may subdue the gold price in the short term. OK, that’s very good. I don’t know why they’re calling it de hedging. I think what they’re saying is geopolitical risk. People were with the US election.

They’re taking off their hedge because there was no end of the world. That’s that’s what they mean. I’m thinking about the hassle. Now, the strong US dollar rebound and expectations of a shallower fed cut cycle, let’s stay with the strong US dollar rebound that plays right into something that we’ve been saying here for three months. That the next move in gold, which had been higher, is contingent upon the election. But after that, you need the ETF demand in the US to continue. And as much as the banks like Goldman and Citi and all the other banks are coming out saying, well, we have a new model for gold and that new model is based on fundamentals.

The catalyst is still US rates. So US investors don’t care about Chinese bonds. They care about US bonds. And at the higher prices, I don’t think China and the other central banks were buying. And so we were the buyers. And as rates started to creep higher and the dollar started to strengthen without thinking about the war. Right. Trump stuff, gold took it on the chin. Now, imagine if that’s over. I don’t know. So let’s look at these charts. Right. Gold price fell with rising US Treasury yields. That’s right. The gap is still very pronounced.

See if I can make that bigger. Doesn’t make it bigger. I’m going to stay with this. I want to stay with my pictures. Gold price fell with right. So as the gap between yields, the correlation between US yields and gold price still remains spread apart. And I believe it will remain spread apart for the foreseeable future. That’s not to say the correlation is gone. It’s just reset at a different beta, which we said before. And the renewed strength in the US dollar also had an effect on gold post election. I’m betting that the dollar is going to be weaker because of Trump and the other articles I wrote.

But these are the short term reasons where the manifestations of the post election sell off. Next. Oh, I’m sorry. There it is. I want to be on this one. Silver sinks alongside gold. The silver imports are picking up. You know, we’ve seen this if you’re on the if you’re on X, if you’re or if you’re reading our stuff here. That’s not very professional, is it? How about this one? If you’re reading our stuff here, well, you know, the China silver demand has been picking up now. It’s predominantly for industry. That’s what China is saying.

But I think it’s for more than that. What kind of industry we don’t know. But anyway, China is buying silver again. So there you have it. So silver sinks because the Westerners were selling it. Which brings us to. Oh, there you go. An overdue profit booking by investors. So here’s a little bit of an explanation, liquidation of speculative positions. This is all the hedge funds getting out. The election’s over. Let’s sell. And this was all the American normal people saying, oh, the dollar’s stronger. Let’s sell. So there’s your reasons, right? Physical demand, however, is coming back.

So the lower the price goes, the more likely physical demand. I’m not referring to central bank demand. I’m referring to jewelry, seasonal, Diwali, you know, what have you. All the physical demand that includes investor demand, but not at the central bank level. So these gold imports are climbing again. And these gold imports almost always climb. When China’s decline, there’s a trade off there. Gold spot discount narrowed in China. What does that mean? That the price is narrowing and that’s a sign of physical demand returning at the at the public or retail level. Next, central banks continue to stockpile.

Now, this is ostensibly a bullish statement. Central bank gold buying are strong. OK, I’ve had worse typos. But it’s lower and everybody knows about the central bank demand if you’re a big fund trader. And so the fact that it’s declining is what’s weighing on the market. The question is, will it come back again? And we’ll find out it came back after gold’s 300 higher. That’s how it works. Now, the real downside risk they describe as the Fed may skip a rate cut in December and the light blue area is the Fed rate cut and as the light blue shrinks, the chance of a Fed rate cut in December is shrinking.

That’s what they’re saying there. Dark blues, no number. That’s already happened. Now, I’m going to say that the real downside risk of a financial reason to sell gold, more Westerners say the Fed’s not going to cut rates. Let’s sell our gold out. Fine. Do you think China cares about Fed rates? They haven’t for the last two years. So I’m saying if the Fed doesn’t cut and I need to buy the gold because I want the gold because I’m creating an alternative currency system, which is going to be gold based and silver, then I’m catching those selling.

OK, look, China is not the passenger in this car anymore. China is driving. News and analysis. So we have that full report at the bottom. Lots of nice charts in there. News and analysis. Trump 2.0. Mercantile trade. We discussed that. Founders and German Goldman predatory vibe. Something that we see to share this with you. We all think Goldman is the bulling back that’s getting hurt. Let’s put it that way. China finds 83 billion dollars worth of gold reverse and Hunan finds the key word there discovers on Earth’s. They already had it. They’re just telling us about it now.

Russian central banker in charge of digital payment system. Hold on one second. The Russian central banker that resigned in charge of digital payment system. I don’t care how you frame it. That’s not good. Right. You need a we need a stability in your organization. It’s not good. I don’t know what it means, but it’s not good. Thursday, PM posts moving on. Those are our stories from yesterday. Politics, geopolitics, world war creep. Now, I’m going to read to you from RT, which is a Russian publication, so it’s their flavor of the truth. And you know, we have our own flavor, obviously.

According to RT. I didn’t mean to do that. I apologize. There we go. Kiev has launched a long range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally recognized Russian territory. President Vladimir Putin said in a public address on Thursday, Ukrainian military fired British made storm shadows and like cruise missiles. And U.S. made high Mars missiles. Don’t know what they are at targets located in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions, he said. The use of such Western made systems in the Ukraine conflict has drastically changed its nature. He warned, quote, a regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one.

Putin stated. Side note, just a comment on the side there. He knows his international law. These long range high precision missile systems cannot be used without the direct involvement of Western military specialists. The president explained, quote, the use of such weapons by the enemy cannot affect the course of the situation in the special military operations zone. Putin stressed. He also said it was a big mistake for the U.S. to pull out of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Force Treaty in 2019. If nothing else, this guy understands how to talk to bureaucrats coming from a bureaucratic nation himself.

If you’re not familiar with this with this lingo, we can sell them as many weapons as we want or give them as many weapons as they want. But if they need our technical expertise to press the button to fire them, well, then that’s us firing the button. That’s what he’s saying. And that apparently is the international rules of engagement. You know, so it’s OK to put American troops in so long as they’re a merchant army or, you know, hired army, private army. Now, there’s there’s a flip side to this. Everything he’s saying is true.

Let’s say. The missile they used to come back. I think they were hypersonic. I’m not sure we accused them of them being ICBMs. And they said they weren’t ICBMs. They were a special new missile that weren’t ICBMs, but used similar technology. Just just let’s be clear about this here. Who gives a shit? Whether it’s an ICBM or not, an ICM, it’s an ICBM shot locally. That’s like saying I have a gun, you know, and and I’m using a forty five caliber bullet in this gun versus that gun. It doesn’t matter. OK, this is World War creep.

You know, about six months ago, I said about two years ago, I said this is the end of a world war. And I wasn’t trying to be. Do me or, you know, sensational about it. The point is, this is a slow moving world war. Remember all the the bricks? There’s a battle in every region of the world. And this is a divorce east and west. And every so often they’re going to heat up. Well, this one is the kind of battle in a divorce. Ukraine being the thing that they’re fighting over. That that could cause people to go to court, you know, in the divorce.

And that court is World War. The flip side, the hopeful side that I have is is that this is like a a balance of terror until Trump comes in. So Biden wants to make things miserable for for Putin. And Putin wants to say show he’s not weak because they’re all looking at Trump stepping in and negotiation is when Trump steps in. And so now it’s escalation of tension. And then afterwards, I hope now I’m not hopeful based on how the markets are acting. So. That’s it. Data on deck, housing and talking premium. There is the ANZ report.

Let’s take a quick look at the markets as promised. So. As it as a trader, a trader talking to people trying to make sense of the market. Golds above the 50 day moving average for all intents and purposes, it’s just going to keep going up. OK, so you’re bullish gold. What I say if you’re bullish gold, buy silver, but be patient. While the real answer is if you’re bullish gold, you buy gold above the 50 day moving average. But you’ll get the quick turnaround. Right. So if you’re bullish gold by silver means either buy silver now and hope for a gap or during the day.

During the trading day in the U.S. hours, you buy silver gets above the 50 day moving average. So my preference with silver would be to buy calls. So you’ll miss it if it gaps higher and to some calls, not a lot. And then you watch the market on a day. And if it breaks the 50 day and gold looks strong, you buy silver with a vengeance. That’s it. OK, they are they right. They not not one person. The world is buying gold and the world is selling copper and silver stuck in the middle. That’s what’s going on.

So. We could be range bound in here a lot, I don’t think so. I mean, we tracked the 50 day before. Maybe this was the aberration. We’re just going to start skipping a little in the 50 day again. That could be that could be true. We’d probably have to go up here first and then go back down. I don’t know. But I’ll tell you this. As the Fed is being perceived as having less of a chance to cut. But as the dollar is strengthening beyond the pale, gold’s going up. Gold was bought at the 100 day moving average.

Not sold right below it. Nobody even got a chance to get short below it. That suggests to me that this buying was buying. I know this is buying my banks in here. I know it based on how the open interest acted. This is shorts covering and funds covering. But it’s mostly bullion banks, I believe. Right. That part, I believe. Which says to me that there’s a lot of buying underneath here. I think the East might I think the BRICS banks might be buying again in here. It’s crazy. They don’t care about the price. We care about the price.

They care about the value. That’s it. Have a great weekend and see you next week. God willing. Markets and metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again next week. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license, financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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