Summary
➡ The text discusses how governments, particularly in the U.S. and China, have been using financial strategies like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies and maintain growth targets. It also highlights the potential risks of these strategies, suggesting that they may be unsustainable in the long term. The text also advises on the importance of securing Bitcoin investments using hardware devices, and discusses the cyclical nature of debt and economic growth.
➡ When the U.S. raises interest rates, it attracts global money, including from China when its market becomes restrictive. This global money movement has historically led to increases in the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin value. However, different assets respond differently to increased liquidity. As more money is expected to be printed, it’s important to be prepared for potential changes in the value of various assets.
Transcript
So in this video, we’re gonna dig into what does China’s latest move mean for you As an investor, we’re gonna dive into the data to see how similar moves in the past affected stocks real estate and Bitcoin And of course what you can do to position yourself to benefit from this and by the end of this video You’re gonna have a clear understanding of whether this monetary bazooka could be your next big opportunity or a warning sign to stay cautious Either way knowing how China’s actions could impact your assets is gonna give you a serious edge and navigate in the market ahead and real quick If you’re new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss I’ve been investing my own money and I’ve been building companies now through four economic crises I’ve been writing a financial newsletter and coaching thousands of investors for almost nine years and I’m a partner in a leading Bitcoin focused VC hedge fund and a lot of the research that we use is going into this video.
So let’s go All right, so we’re gonna just jump right into this because this is hot news and this is massive It’s drastic. It’s something I’ve been talking about for a long time and it’s here Okay, so hopefully you’ve been ready for this and if you’re not don’t worry we’re gonna catch you up So why why do we have a monetary bazooka in the first place? And of course, it’s because China is struggling China’s in trouble And of course when China is in trouble the rest of the world’s in trouble.
Maybe that’s why the Federal Reserve is acting We’ll come back to that in a minute. But basically China has been in big big trouble for a long time It’s nothing new China has been Goosing faking Stimulating their economy for a long time, which of course has adverse effects and lately it’s finally been catching up So here is China’s 10 year yield that they pay out on the treasure and look at that is what we call Deflation now if you follow my channel or you’re paying attention to macroeconomics, you know That’s central banks around the world the entire system because we’re in a debt-based monetary system needs Inflation to survive.
It’s a Ponzi if it doesn’t continue to expand it crashes and Deflation is the number one fear that all central bankers stay up at night worrying about and this is what China has been Seeing now that is their bond. That’s their yield their 10-year bond here. We have Their this is their stock market Going down compared to the S&P 500 the US market going up This is a bad sign and again, not just for China before the rest of the world. Why? Well turns out the US needs the Chinese economy just like the Chinese economy Economy needs the rest of the world.
We can see this Really in the real estate sector. You’ve probably been hearing about it I’ve done videos on it. The real estate sector sector sector has been getting completely hammered. Here’s real estate sales Here’s real estate starts again Massive deflation again, this is what keeps central bankers up at night and we can kind of keep going in This is another big problem that China has change got a lot of problems So while they’re apparently to people are not paying attention Taking over the world when you just kind of peek under the hood you see they’ve got serious problems This is the unemployment rate.
China’s youth unemployment rate as a matter of fact, we’re at greater than 20% 20% I’m gonna pause on that The US you hear about all these jobs being lost unemployment is going up, but we’re like at 4% for 20% it’s a big deal Especially when it comes down to the youth, especially when it comes down to the men So China has lots of men They had a one-child policy for about three decades where they didn’t have girls All they had was men and now they have hundreds of millions of men, but no girls and they have no jobs It’s a big problem for China as you might imagine So this is sort of the place that they’ve gotten them in one more chart to show you the deflation This is the money supply.
This is m1 and again, look at that trend It’s big big news. So china’s been in a bad place for a really long time, which has caused Uh drastic times calling for drastic measures. Okay, so now they’ve got the monetary bazooka Boom, they shot this out into their economy. But of course, it’s the global economy now the bazooka It’s massive before we get into the specifics of the bazooka We also want to understand what happens as all of this goes through and more specifically What’s happened in the past when we’ve seen china do this? It’s not the first time as a matter of fact, this is the Fourth time in just the last several years.
Okay. So what happened? So first of all, let’s just break this down Basically, they’re doing every kind of monetary stimulus. They can’t basically trying to expand the money supply. How well they’ve cut bank reserve requirements So basically they’re cutting rates and cutting the reserve requirements. So the banks are able to lend out more money Actually, I have a whole breakdown right here. Let’s run through this before we run through that Let’s just take a look at some of the things that we see in china. So for example This rollout shows this is a very big piece But it’s so big.
I want to come back to it. Let’s look at this Let’s look at the specifics real quick. What we can see is that pboc lowered reserve requirements by half a point Which doesn’t sound like a lot but it is and the reason why is because by doing that they Unfreeze or they unleash about a trillion yuan, which is about 142 billion dollars for the banks That’s massive. They did a seven-day repurchase rate reduction from 1.7 to 1.5 again another massive drop They changed or lowered the loan prime rates by 20 to 30 basis points So basically they’re making money cheaper and again, right when money’s cheaper the goal Hopefully people buy more of it right increased loan amounts in a debt-based monetary system They cut interest rates on existing mortgages by an average of 50 basis points Imagine in the united states or whatever country you’re in if they just said oh everybody’s rates mortgage rates is half a point cheaper Or imagine what that would do.
They lowered the minimum down payment for second homes from 25 to 15 percent Imagine if they did that imagine how many more people would get those investment properties. They always wanted That’s exactly what they’re trying to do the central bank introduced cheap loans to local governments for buying up unsold properties covering 100% of the loans So china has this massive problem with all this real estate They built and hasn’t been purchased and they’re basically saying hey local governments Will just give you as much money as you want to go buy all the properties and we’re gonna give you 100% of the money If the government gave you 100% of money to go buy a bunch of properties Do you think you do that and you understand exactly what’s going on liquidity for the stock market? This is a pretty big one.
The pboc has launched two new tools to boost liquidity for equity markets 113 billion dollars program And to fund and access liquidity for purchasing stocks The pboc the central bank is literally giving hundreds of billions of dollars for them to buy Stocks and prop up the market 42.5 billion in loans to commercial banks for stock market interventions Or maybe we’d call them manipulations Whatever you want to call it. So this is sort of the specific is what’s going on. You can understand it’s a big deal A really big deal.
Why is this even a bigger deal? Uh, it’s a bigger deal because it shows intent if you’ve been following me for a while You know that I say that since 2008 the markets changed and you can’t look previous to that to extrapolate a lot of information One of the big things that’s changed was the introduction of quantitative easing, but more importantly It was a psychological shift. You can’t really measure this. I mean you can and we can go through that but It’s a psychological shift and it shows the willingness that central banks and governments have to intervene in markets And with quantitative easing they’ve levered up the system so hard.
They can’t allow it to unravel then in 2020 We’ve seen that escalate right in the u.s It was about 11 trillion dollars of stimulus to prop up the markets. China was even bigger The question you might ask yourself is if they did all that in 2020 or in 2008 And then did even more in 2020 and then in 2023 in the u.s With three banks collapse hundreds of billions of more to save the banks Why would they stop now? Ask yourself that question and this exactly answers that it says the publicized roll out showed authorities are taking seriously Authorities are taking seriously the warnings that china risks missing its growth target of around five percent So they want to grow by five percent a year That’s their target and they’re afraid they’re not going to make that target and they’re taking that seriously They’re doing everything they can to stay on track the policy barrage barrage likely puts that goal back within reach So they want to maintain or sustain that growth rate at all cost no matter what do you see what i’m talking about? This is a psychological thing.
It’s not just a data thing It’s what a lot of analysts miss, okay Yet to unveil more forceful measures to boost authorities have yet to unveil more forceful measures to boost demand among consumers So they still have more in their back pocket is basically what it’s saying It says right here More needs to be done in order to help solidify fourth quarter growth So they still need to do more to stay on that five percent target by the end of the year So what they’re saying is that they are going to stay on target.
No matter what whatever it takes This barrage this bazooka that they fired is only just the beginning They have more more forceful measures and more needs to be done and they’re willing to do whatever it takes now Uh, it’s something called the sunken cost fallacy once you’ve gone so far. It’s harder and harder to quit, right? Once they’ve pumped in hundreds of billions of dollars Why would they stop now and you’re starting to understand where this world is going which direction we’re heading? I want to take a second just real quick to just give you a reminder The reminder is take control of your bitcoin Look for the first time in history We have a way to preserve our property take custody of our property and protect it with no cost You can’t do that with gold.
You can’t do it with your stocks And so we can do it with bitcoin and you should now don’t store it on an app on your phone that can get hacked What you want to do is use a hardware device something like this trezor right here So basically your private key sits here when you want to do a transaction you plug it into your computer Sign the transaction when you’re done you unplug it and put it back into your safe I’ve used trezor for now. I don’t know six seven years because I think it’s the easiest one to use I’ve tried I think pretty much all of them and it’s also open source So you can trust the code and again, it’s easy Why easy because if it’s too complex it makes me think of how many potential holes and risks there could be? Not just in the device itself, but even in my own ability to secure it So I want something fast.
I want something easy and I want something to say if that’s why I use trezor And if you don’t use trezor use something, please get your bitcoin off the exchange Use a hardware device to secure your private key. And if you like trezor check out the link down below okay, now I want to just jump back in time not that far We’re going to jump back in time to about six weeks ago And I made this video right here talking about a meltdown or a magic setup And I was talking specifically at this time about what was going on with the jap The japanese markets and the carry trade was blowing up you might remember that video Where let’s go ahead and put it right here.
We’ll link to it in the show notes down below as well You should probably go watch it. Now. You might remember at that time the whole world was calling for it This is it. This is the final prick in the liquidity bubble The whole world’s gonna crash Of course, I made a video calming you down and I talked about global liquidity and again how this always continues to expand Now at that time I showed you this chart I’ve used it many times if you watch my channel you’re familiar with this chart and this basically shows That all the debt in the world about 75 percent of it 75 percent of the world has a maturity rate Of about one to five years.
So let’s call it a four-year average So about 75 percent of the debt in the world has about a four-year average and remember the debt can’t get repaid It can’t get destroyed. It gets rolled over. We need more debt to pay the existing debt So you might remember this so every four years we have to create more debt to continue to roll it over Which is why we end up on these four-year cycles that look like this This is what it’s supposed to look like. Of course, it doesn’t match perfectly, but it pretty much does Now you can see that right now the global equity is turning up Right on pace now again these four-year cycles started in 2008 because that’s when the whole world went to zero rates and they just so happened to coincide with the four-year business ism cycle and the four-year Election cycle.
Oh, yeah, and the four-year bitcoin halving cycle at the same time pretty interesting, isn’t it? But you might remember this video if you saw it, uh, let me just play you this clip from this video from six weeks ago Now the problem is that and what we’ve seen going on is that we’re in this what we call like a liquidity pocket There’s debt that needs to get rolled over the world needs the fed the central banks the fed of the united states But other major central banks other major central banks are the ecb european central bank The boj bank of japan and the pboc the chinese central bank Those are sort of the major ones and what we can see is that they need liquidity Because they need to keep their markets or their debt rolling over to keep their markets going But the problem is that we have been the world has been the fed has been in a tightening cycle So they want to tighten up the monetary supply But right now the other nations of the world needed to start easing so they can get that liquidity so they can roll that debt over now what’s happening is China desperately needs this but they can’t go into an easing right now while the fed is still in the tightening All right.
So what did I say there? That was so prophetic I said that all the central banks need to ease in sync And what happened is that two of the most important central banks in the world japan and china? They really needed to ease like really really bad Japan couldn’t wait anymore So they moved without the fed and it almost crashed the entire globe. So japan said whoa. Okay, we’ll wait for the fed So we needed the fed to announce easing which they just did And just like we talked about six weeks ago The fed announced they would ease and now the pboc is doing it because all this needs to be done in sync They were waiting and so we have all the major central banks of the world easing We also have switzerland easing canada easing sweden easing the euro zone easing uk is easing And again, the us is easing that means the rest of the world is Okay Now let’s jump back in history because again We don’t invest in the markets as we want them to be or as we think we can as they as they should be or What our gut or emotion tells us we need to get the emotion out of it.
Let’s look at the data All right So let’s go back in history to see when this happened before now We know in 2015 to 2016 the chinese stock market crashed really really hard All right We know that in 2018 to 2020, uh, it also crashed as well There was this trade war going on you might remember trump and the tariffs and all of those things happening Which again crashed the the market and again the chinese market has been trying to de-leverage for a long time That’s what crashes are.
They’re trying to de-lever the system, which of course we can’t have Uh, we saw it happen in 2021. If you remember in 2021, they they cracked down hard on technology and real estate as well They’re trying to kind of slow the bubble in real estate down and they cracked down too hard Might remember that now what’s interesting about this is you might remember I made this other video about six months ago and I talked about this, uh, phenomenon called the imperial circle Now it’s the george sauros imperial circle. A lot of you guys might not like george sauros.
I certainly don’t Just forget about his name for a minute. It’s about the secret circle the imperial circle and basically what this tells us is that money moves globally And the irony of what happens is when the united states goes into a rate hiking cycle They’re trying to slow or tighten the economy down by raising rates It pulls liquidity from the rest of the world and so it sort of negates what they’re trying to do, right? So they raise rates and then it makes it more attractive for money from other countries to come in And so what we’re seeing you have to remember that money moves globally So when the chinese market becomes restrictive or money starts leaving Where do you think it goes? If you guess the us markets, uh global commodities, yes, you might be right So we can see this.
Let’s take a look at these three data points in time uh, let’s take a look at this is the Let’s look at this chart here first. This is the s and p 500 All right. So this is the u.s stock market. It’s like the main index the benchmark that we look at So during the first period that china, uh had the same situation happening during that same period We saw the s and p 500 up about nine percent not major, but it didn’t lose money It went up. That was actually pretty good for u.s stocks The second time 2018 to 2020 we saw the s and p 500 go up by almost 20 That’s pretty good in a short period of time We average what 8 over a 50 60 year period.
It’s pretty good. The third time it happened The s and p 500 went up over 20 Again, so as china is restricting the markets or their markets are stumbling the monies come into the u.s Now that’s the u.s market. That’s this s and p 500. What about a global asset like kamaa commodity like bitcoin? So we can see in the same period the first time bitcoin went up by 365 percent Pretty good better than the 8 percent. The s and p 500 did the second time it happened bitcoin went up by 92 percent again Almost double your money.
Not bad. And the last time it happened bitcoin went up another 90 percent so you see the What happens is as they’re easing they’re bringing out the the monetary bazooka, so to speak, right? They’re going to be putting billions trillions of dollars in an economy How much of that goes into other assets like bitcoin other commodities as well as how much comes to the us market? And now you have an idea All right. Now the important thing to understand is that a rising tide lifts all boats So to speak and so we’re not seeing the asset in Or the bubble in assets what we’re seeing is the bubble in the denominator or in the us dollars So really what we want to do is we want to follow the money, right? So just because the bank of japan or the bank of china or the ecb european central bank Just because they’re printing money doesn’t mean that it’s going to stay in that region or in those banks, right? It’s going to go around the world.
So we want to follow the money. We want to understand that easing these easing policies Lowering rates lowering reserve requirements lowering, you know down payments things like that It’s increasing the money supply when money gets cheaper people buy more of it Just like if apple announced that the new iphone 16 was on sale for ten dollars. Would they sell more of them? Yes, of course, um, we want to understand that different assets have different Sensitivity to the rates and the increasing liquidity, right? I go over this all the time So we know that the s and p 500 and the u.s real estate goes up at about the rate of monetary increase We know that gold goes up about uh 1.5 times That we know bitcoin goes up at a nine times sensitivity.
So not all boats go up at the same speed We want to understand that different assets have different sensitivity rates now as for bitcoin itself We also want to understand there’s a lag All right I just did a video on this showing how when global liquidity breaks out bitcoin has a lag We’ll link to that video down below if you want to understand The time frame of when you can expect bitcoin to take off go watch that video And then overall the assets that I think are the best to invest into During this period follow what I call the quantum wave cycle Which is a 50-year technology cycle and you want to be investing right there I’m gonna have a live presentation I think next week where I want to break down all those assets is free if you want to come hang out ask me questions We’ll put a link to it down below But just know that as this money is being printed and we have just started to see it As I said china said that a lot more will be needed just to get them through q4 The fed hasn’t even started yet And so if you’re not prepared for what’s about to happen over the next 12 to 15 months You better get ready right now and you can start by uh joining me next week live It’s a there’s a link down below or you may want to just watch this video about the investing black hole right here And that’ll help you.
That’s what I got. All right Give me a like if you liked it. If you don’t you can give me thumbs down. That’s okay Either way, tell me why in the comments down below. That’s what I got to your success I’m out
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