I wasn’t sure what to expect. I’ve gone to a lot of these rallies across the country and there are often people who travel hundreds of miles to see Donald Trump and they’re not necessarily part of the community. However, one of the things that I found was that there were a lot of people here that were actually from the Bronx. You can hear the disappointment. Yes, Anderson, I’ve been to many Trump rallies in the past and they always bust people in from all over and people travel hundreds of miles just to see him.

And that’s what I was hoping for here. But unfortunately, I found that most people I talk to are from right here in the Bronx. Darn it. Yeah, this massive crowd is basically organic. This is the real deal. They didn’t manufacture. It’s not fabricated like the Russian collusion hoax that we fabricated for three and a half years. They’re all locals from the Bronx. Darn it. That’s not the answer Anderson wanted to hear. And it’s something that CNN is starting to sound the alarm on much more than MSNBC or ABC or CBS or any other cable news or network outlet.

Here’s CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Anton, sounding the alarm on this new rising political coalition. It’s here. Sorry. It’s a Memorial Day weekend. Come on. That’s right. Harry is just always here. As Steve was talking about the effort that Donald Trump and his campaigner have been making to try to make inroads with black and Hispanic voting communities. You see that with this attempt to go into deep blue, the deep blue Bronx. But you actually think there’s a larger story at play here that people aren’t talking. Yeah, I think there are a few things.

Number one, you know, guys, if you just put this newspaper up on the screen, look, this is Donald Trump’s hometown paper, the New York Post. He got the headline that he won out of this. And this is something that Trump is so important to him. But it’s more than that. Look at the Katona Park area, right? The Katona Park precinct where that rally was held yesterday. It’s a majority Hispanic precinct. And I want you to take a look essentially at the election results over the last few cycles. And what you would see there is essentially say that, look, this is a very Democratic precinct, right? But look at the margin trend line here.

You see Obama, 94, Obama, 96, Clinton, 92. Biden won it. But by only 69 points, there’s only 16. Why is why is that important? Because look at that. That’s 23 percentage points less than Hillary Clinton won it by. This is a sign of the Hispanic movement that we saw last cycle, right? Where we saw although Hispanics still favored the Democratic candidate and Joe Biden, they were less likely to favor him than they did Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama both times. And it’s not just there that happened. We saw in Hispanic precincts and counties across the country from Southeast Florida, Southern Texas, even in the Los Angeles area.

So you so pass. Talk about present. What are the what are the trends you’re seeing among Hispanic voters this year? Yes. So we saw a trend among Hispanic voters from 2016 to 2020 where they became less Democratic. Look at the trend that we’re seeing right now in the polling, right? So if you look back at Hispanic voters at this point in the 2020 cycle, Joe Biden had a 25 point lead. Look at where that lead is today. It’s just seven points. Donald Trump right now at 44% if that helped would be the best performance for Republican candidate among Hispanic voters since George W Bush back in 2004.

And this is part of a larger trend line kit that we’re seeing among non white voters. We see it among black voters as well. We’ve discussed that on this program before whereby they’re much more favorable to Donald Trump than they were four years ago. And of course, Donald Trump did better amongst those both of those groups in 2020 versus how he did in 2016. Hey gang, with everything going on right now, it’s hard to say what could happen or what will happen. And to make matters even worse, we usually don’t find out until it’s too late.

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He doesn’t have to outright win the majority of the non-white vote. All he has to do is cut in enough on Biden’s margins with non-whites in order to politically destroy Biden. And we’ve been talking about the political sweet spot for Trump for weeks now. He’s galvanizing the rural white vote while at the same time he’s getting record support from the non-white vote, right? Trump is maximizing the rural white vote like he did in 2016 and 2020. Remember even if Hillary had gotten Barack Obama’s same level support among the black vote in 2016, she still would have lost the election because she lost the rural white vote by so much.

Trump is maximizing that rural white vote even more so in 2024 than in 2016 and 2020, while at the exact same time he’s radically minimizing the Democrat urban vote by siphoning off more non-white votes than ever from Biden’s margins. So the political sweet spot for Trump and what he appears to be doing here is maximizing the rural vote for himself while minimizing the urban vote for Biden. And we’ve talked about this in terms of why. Why Trump is able to uniquely do this, uniquely unite the rural with the urban.

It’s because of his nationalist populism. So we’ve been talking about what about his populism? Why do we harp so much on this channel about the force of nationalist populism throughout the West, particularly in Europe? What’s the chief characteristic of populism? We talked about nationalism, but what’s the chief characteristic now of populism? See all the cool things you learn on this channel, right? You know what’s going on with civic nationalism? We talked about all the dynamics of that. What about populism? Why is nationalist populism so important? Who knows? Put it in the chat.

You guys know this if you’re a regular to this channel. Populism redefines the political animosity. It redefines the political animosity from a horizontal animosity, left versus right, Democrat versus Republican, right, urban versus rural. It redefines the horizontal animosity to a vertical one, the people versus the political class, the ruled versus the rulers, the ordinary American versus the oligarchs. And thus populism promises to amass a coalition that can go way beyond the limitations of a left-right divide. It’s not constrained by the limitations of Democrat versus Republican. Now it’s the entire people versus the political class, which is a tiny, tiny, tiny little oligarchical minority.

And the people is everybody. And who are they? They are one nation. They are a single national race united around the civic symbols of tradition and custom and culture. So that’s why I think what we’re seeing in the polls here is Trump starting to really run away with this, especially in the swing states. Let’s say if you have you haven’t seen this, this is the latest electoral map from FiveThirtyEight. That’s Nate Silver’s organization. I mean, look at this gang. I mean, look at it. It’s insane right now as we speak if you average out all the polls that have been taken out, taken over the last eight months in particularly all the swing states.

See all that pink? You see all that pink? Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Those are all the swing states. They’re all the swing states, including the district in Maine. Those are all the swing states. And Trump is winning every single one of them. And again, this isn’t this poll or that one. No, no poll cherry picking here. This is the averaging out of all the polls over the last eight months. Some of them I think have hit like in Pennsylvania. I think I can’t remember if it’s Pennsylvania or Michigan.

Some have hit like 50 or 60 polls now. They’re polling weekly. Trump is now right now as we speak, we take those poll averages. He’s crushing Biden with 312 electoral votes, 312. You got 306 in 2016. Okay, 312 electoral votes. Actually, I got 6.8 electoral points more than what he got in 2016. 6.8 electoral points more than what he got in 2016. That I would, and by the way, that self was a feat because Trump was the first Republican to get over 300 electoral votes since 1988 when I graduated high school.

He’s now sitting comfortably at 312. This does not count New York. This does not count Virginia. This does not count New Minnesota, which are all in play right now. What accounts for that extra six or eight electoral votes? It’s the urban vote. It’s the non-white working-class vote defecting in mass to Trump and giving him another six or eight electoral votes. And by the way, if you’re a statistics nerd, 538 average polling in May is generally determinative of who is going to win in November. So on May 23rd of 2020 Biden had 4.3% lead over Trump.

He ended up winning with 4.5%. And that’s true in virtually every one of the swing states. Biden was up in Nevada in May. He won Nevada in November. He was up in Pennsylvania in May. He won Pennsylvania in November. Biden was up in Wisconsin in May. He won Wisconsin in November. He was up in Michigan in May. He won Michigan in November. Generally speaking, wherever the polls are in late May, that is generally who ends up winning in November. That’s been the pattern we’ve seen in most election cycles. Not all, to be sure, there are exceptions.

2016 was one of them. Hillary was up in most of these polls and Trump turned it around. But Trump today, this is not even controversial no matter who you ask, left, right, center, doesn’t matter in terms of polling analysis. Trump today is polling stronger by far than he has ever polled. He is in a better position to win the presidency today than he was in 2016. And it is precisely because of this new political coalition, this amazing, this glorious political coalition that has been years in the making, finally appears to be rising, to once and for all make America great again.

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