➡ The article discusses the potential for silver prices to break through a $30 resistance point and head towards $50. It also highlights the strong performance of Fortuna Silver Mines, which has consistently outperformed the junior mining index. The article also mentions the stability of bank reserves, the ongoing draining of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and China’s accelerated selling of U.S. treasuries. Lastly, it touches on the rise of Bitcoin in relation to silver.
➡ The value of Bitcoin in gold terms peaked in late 2021 and has been dropping since. The price of silver has also been fluctuating, with a notable triple top at $30. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been used to predict future silver prices, suggesting that once silver breaks the $30 mark, it could quickly rise to $50 and beyond. This could lead to significant changes in the banking system.

The $30 triple quadruple whatever top makes all kinds of sense and it is going to break. Well hello there my friends, Raf here from The Endgame Investor with this week’s silver report for Arcadia, economics, and today I want to go into why a $30 resistance makes a lot of sense for silver and once it breaks through we will head towards $50 and more. Or maybe more. This is something we went into last week but I wanted to like really nail it home today uh and show you three time periods of three triple tops some would say quadruple tops we have a triple top we have quadruple top at 30 why it makes sense relative to the 1970s and the years 2009 to 2011 before we had $50 there you’ll see the math on the paper on the virtual paper on your screen and we’re going to go into the aggregates in the monetary system what is going on in the bank reserves and in the fed’s balance sheet which is still draining and the fed is still losing money every week and a little bit about gold and comax gold versus bitcoin silver versus bitcoin china is selling treasuries at an all-time record pace for this month so leave the chart there and with that let’s get on with this week’s silver report today’s silver report is brought to you by fortuna silver mines symbol fsm last week we went into the earnings report from may 7th but i forgot to mention that they actually exceeded expectations or topped earnings estimates is the technical term to use the parlance of our times in the parlance of our times you know i didn’t even see that because i was just reading and looking at the earnings themselves but here is the context fortuna silver fsm q1 earnings tops estimates revenues up year over year fortuna silver mines reported first quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of nine cents which beat the zach’s consistent consensus estimate of three cents by a solid margin of 200 percent the bottom line also marked the 80 improvement year over year results were aided by higher gold sales volume and improved gold prices yeah damn straight improved gold prices they’ll keep going up or not going below 2000 ever again i don’t think fortuna silver’s revenues increased 28 year to 225 million or higher on higher gold sales volumes and prices production gold equivalent production up almost 20 year over year uh i wanted to play a little game here on the charts to show you what is going on if we put this full screen we will look here is the in the candles we have fsm in the red line we have gdxj which is the junior miners etf so we see what fsm does in relation to its etf peer tracking the junior mining index here you see that fsm is up on a maximum scale 179 percent since i think this is since 2007 versus gdxj which is down 63 percent since 2007 if we go to a five-year chart we see also that fsm is beating out gdxj 105 percent or 106 percent to 54.5 percent if we go down to a two-year chart we see also that uh fsm is beating gdxj 59.7 to 13.5 8 on a one-year chart same thing 51 to 13.5 basically on any time scale you pick fsm is beating the etf handily uh going all the way down to six months 54 to 28 three months 91 to 37 one month 19 to 8.7 even five days 4.3 to 1.8 even yesterday thursday may 16th of 1.4 versus gdxj which is down 0.3 but yes there are reasons to purchase the mining etfs rather than individual companies it helps mitigate company specific risk etc but on any time frame fortuna is beating the etf and it is a reflection of good management and just a generally good company in my personal opinion to your own due diligence and let’s continue with this week’s silver report brought to you by fsm first things first bank reserves this week are stable at about 3.37 trillion dollars they’ve gone slightly up over the last two weeks but not much uh the red line here where we are going to hit another banking crisis is somewhere around the three trillion dollar marks or 370 billion dollars away from that they’re going to be drains going through august as this is the seasonal time where money supply tends to decline into the summer uh when what the last time we hit a monetary crisis or a banking crisis was at this line in march 2023 it should be slightly above that the red line where the next price is going to hit and this is why the fed is planning to slow down quantitative tightening in uh august or june or one of those months i think june actually they’re going to slow it down but they’re still going to do a slower pace because they don’t want these bankers to fall below uh wherever they were around three trillion dollars when the last banking crisis hit and they’re trying to be careful but they’re going to hit it anyway because you know that’s what they do meanwhile the balance sheet is still draining last week we drained another 49.136 billion dollars that is the most since uh about february yeah since february it might be a little bit more than that so if it’s more than february then it’s the most since december 2023 the biggest drain since then we’re at 7.3 trillion dollars that summer in early 2021 uh we’re gonna hit the crisis line it just we just don’t know exactly when but the monetary base is still draining making it more and more precarious for the bank system which will eventually hit a wall or a tsunami or wherever you want to describe whatever it is they’re going up against which is not good the fed meanwhile is still losing money every week on its bond portfolio and operating loss and this is the uh back end of what causes hyperinflation a central bank that loses money they try to say that it doesn’t matter and it doesn’t affect monetary policy well if it doesn’t well then balance sheets don’t matter and they can just like invent whatever money they want and just put it in the economy without backing with any asset which is a bunch of crap these losses will continue we have now 168.899 billion dollars that are losses that are backed by deferred assets meaning nothing it is by the way is what causes hyperinflation in argentina because its central bank buys iou’s from the treasury which are worth nothing on the market and issues currencies so they are at a loss because those assets that they get from the parliament or the argentinian government this is before mille they aren’t worth anything and so the argentinian central bank is at a severe loss which is what causes hyperinflation on the back end it takes a lot to kick in and it’s coming something interesting on the komex i noticed uh today this is friday may 17th but these are numbers for thursday may 16th uh so we have the june contract here right you have uh open interest of 254 000 uh open interest yesterday was up 2523 contracts why that is interesting is because the june contract goes to delivery in 10 business days you usually don’t see contracts increasing in open interest when they are that close to a delivery day usually uh traders are buying the next active contrast contract which in this case is august but for some reason a whole bunch of traders opened the june contract they think there’s going to be a huge bump very soon and they’ll be able to roll over or they’ll be able to just sell the contract for again uh or they’re taking delivery in 10 days who knows we’ll see what happens there’s still a lot of open interest that needs to clear out before we get to delivery in 10 days time it usually or almost always does or pretty much always doesn’t because the komex is never defaulted yet but one day they will i don’t think it’ll be this month but it will be some month on an active contract uh china is selling treasuries the the the pace has accelerated to an all-time high uh we have here hopefully increase or decrease in treasuries and agency securities treasuries are of course uh the bonds that are issued by the federal government and agency debt is our bonds issued by fannie mae freddie mack other government-sponsored enterprises aka fascist institutions where you have a union between corporatism and state which leads to but let’s not say that because uh it’s not nice i want you to be nice until it’s time to not be nice be nice it also leads to you know economic crashes and such and by the way freddie mack is looking to buy second mortgages and hand out money so people can borrow against their houses and then lose their houses to the banks again uh that’ll be fun let’s go through that again uh we’re gonna a little bit about bitcoin here um bitcoin to silver bitcoin did hit a new all-time high in silver terms uh around april march or april right it was like 2800 and or 2900 uh ounces per bitcoin but it has fallen sharply since then we’re down to about 2191 ounces and uh well there’s another chart here which shows you that in gold terms in real money terms uh silver is real money but it’s not yet at the monetary ratio so if we count bitcoin in gold terms the top really came in uh the end of 2021 it hasn’t really exceeded that top since and uh since coming close to testing that top at about 34 ounces per bitcoin the record was 37.5 ounces per bitcoin i think in october november 2021 since then the prices dropped uh steadily we’re down to 27 and a half ounces per bitcoin is that the top is 2021 the all-time high that will never be surpassed i think so and i promise i am never wrong i promise i will never die this is where i wanted to get into the triple top uh at silver on silver at 30 why it makes so much sense so the first part of this we went through last week i’m going to add another prong to the fork it’s now a three pronged fork like you know those forks that had three prongs on them sometimes you use them for spaghetti here we have 1978 i showed you last week or it was two weeks ago it was one of these weeks that there was a triple top at six dollars and fifty cents from 1974 to 1979 it could have been a quadruple top depends exactly how you count it triple quadruple whatever the cpi in 1978 when it hit 650 in november 1978 before it broke through was 67.4 points that’s the cpi measurement and we all know that the cpi is 100 dead on accurate and anyone who badmouthed the cpi well he can just uh i wanted to add here so we have 67.4 relative to a six dollar and 50 cent top and now in 2008 and i’ll show you this chart in the next slide here uh the the um cpi was at 218.178 you have to be very exact here because the cpi is an exact science trust the science people it’s very trustworthy so may 2010 the last time when silver hit a triple top or a quadruple top of 20 uh chart on the next slide you’ll see the cpi was at 218.178 now keep that in mind see here the chart um of silver during the triple top of 2008 2009 uh that led it to the spike to 50 in april uh or was it may april 30 i think it was the very end of april when silver just touched 50 over here you can see so before that in the years in the year and a half leading up to that we had a triple top at 20 um could have been quadruple if you count this as two uh do it however you want this is not an exact science even though it is trust the science um now we have we all know that silver has been touching and going with 30 for some time now since 2020 uh so we’re at four and a half years uh four years something like that uh so cpi during silver three triple top where is the cpi in points now it’s at 313.548 and now we’re gonna do some math i’m afraid we need to use math remember that first chart we said that the cpi was at 67.4 out of six dollars and 50 cent top the ratio of cpi to the silver top at that time in 1978 is 10.4 and we reached 50 by 1980 about a just so it was november 1978 to 1980 it’s about 13 14 months uh ahead uh so the 2010 the cpi was 218.178 divided by 20 top triple top quadruple top and silver the ratio is 10.9 very similar to 10.4 50 was hit by 2011 after the late 2010 uh the triple quadruple top at 20 so not many months after that and now 2024 we have a cpi of 313.548 divided by a 30 top we have the ratio of 10.5 so 10.4 10.9 10.5 does that mean we reach 50 by 2025 i think so and i think this time we will go way beyond that because we’re in endgame territory here once we get 50 we will keep going and i think the move from 50 to like say 250 is going to be a lot quicker than the move uh to break 30 which took four years and counting and it is going to break the conclusion is the 30 triple quadruple whatever top makes all kinds of sense and it is going to break hanging in there guys we’re gonna break the 30 top uh we’re gonna hit it today maybe we hit it yesterday we’re gonna hit it next week who knows exactly when it’s gonna break but it’s gonna be soon and when it does we’re gonna head to 50 within a few months i think and from there once we break 50 i think we’ll be in endgame territory and there will be some serious jerking around going around going on in the banking system or i there’s a better word for it but whatever for now check out the endgame investor on substack and if you want to hear a story about a city of gold that alexander the great found and asked how do you get so much gold and they gave him really good answer well then sign up to be my patreon patreon for as little as three dollars a month and you’ll get that cool story and an interesting lesson this is roger with the endgame investor with this week’s silver report for arcade economics and i’ll see you guys next week bye
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