I'm a ninja here. Hope you're doing great. We're going to talk about deflation. We're going to talk about the US boat sales that are collapsing right now. We're going to give you an example, this being an amazing one, of how deflation doesn't happen all at once, and how this deflation boat prices, boat sales collapsing, dropping rapidly like a rock, how they are going to lead to a much larger crash. 

All right, so I got this story at a zero hedge and find it very interesting because it's a great illustration for how markets react. And if you've been getting ready for lower car prices, lower home prices, lower everything prices, this is the time to be watching. All right, with that being said, I didn't put it down below, but I will put a link to the real estate crash course. 

Enrollment is closing as of January 1, so this is your last chance to get it. All right. US. Boat sales sink to a decade low. It says Americans panic bought boats, jet skis, campers, UTVs, ATVs, and anything with a motor that could be ridden in the great outdoors. During can't see the word. Lakes and oceans were flooded with shiny new pontoon boats and $100,000 wakeboarding boats. Matter of fact, I know a couple of people that bought $289,000 wakeboarding boats. 

And being a wakeboarder myself, I absolutely love it. I couldn't even fathom spending that much on a boat. Much of the boat panic buying was seen in 2000 and 22,021 when interest rates were at rock bottom. Now the high rate environment has frozen the industry as new and used boat sales are expected to plunge to a decade low this year. Bloomberg cites new data from the National Marine Manufacturers Association, the leading trade association representing boat marine engine and accessory manufacturers, which states that 1. 

4 million new used boats were sold in 2021, which was up 16% from 2019. This followed several years of low single digit growth. Fast forward to 2023. And the NNMA expects the industry will only sell 269,000 new power boats and about 900,000 used ones, the lowest dating back to 2011. I want to remind you, 2011 was the bottom of the Great Recession. As far as spending and the way people perceived, there was the most depressing time of the Great Recession, how they perceived the economy. 

The vicious slowdown in demand is a function of the interest rate shock produced by the Fed. Now, let me stop there and explain something. This is what's really exciting about this kind of data. I've said it before, I'll say it again. Deflation always starts in travel and leisure, and then it moves into other segments. And so this is a great example of travel and leisure being hit really hard. 

When you see things like this, you know a couple of things are going to happen. First off, jobs are being lost in this industry right now. The more jobs are being lost in this industry. Those people spend money in the real economy, they're going to stop. So other jobs in other industries will be affected, and it takes time to filter through. The Federal Reserve is nowhere near lowering rates. 

Everybody's hoping and praying, but just so you know, they hoped and prayed that the Fed was going to lower rates back in 2004 and 2005. You can go back and Google Fed lowering rates 2004 and go look for old articles, and you'll see the exact same stuff that happened back then is happening now. But the truth is, Fed didn't lower rates. They held them really tight until about the end of 2006, early 2007, where they knew that they had officially broke the back of the economy. 

Well, with information coming out, like the GDP is growing because the government is spending tons of money it doesn't have on other countries wars and on trying to build factories so Taiwan can escape from a pretty soon to be, in the near future an attack from China that's not getting us into any better economic situation. Those numbers are straight up lies, actually, when it comes to the government inflation data and things like this. 

So this is why I have held a certain portion of cash. Now, I'm not going to go out and buy a boat tomorrow. They're going to get a lot cheaper in two years between now and two years from now. My point being is this, because the Fed is going to keep rates even higher for longer, which means there's going to be more and more depression setting in over Americans ideals of what they think the economy is or what it should be. 

All right. Now, it says here, Michael Prince Jr. And this is Great, who sells pontoon and fishing boats in Atlanta, expects the industry to normalize after two years of a buying frenzy. He says, I don't think interest rates have killed the industry yet, but they go up more. But if they go up more, they could, said Prince, managing partner of boat dealers Grass Shack. He noted, it's just coming off such a high that it feels like an incredible downturn. 

So just Michael's actually absolutely wrong. And that exact same phrases, those phrases were used way back when by salespeople. See, they're eternal salespeople. Like, everything's fine. Just buy bye bye. And then when things are really bad, they're like, okay, this is normal. It's totally normal. It's leveled now. Bye. And they're always salesmen just like real estate agents. So my point being is that I want you to realize that this is yet one more great example of deflation coming. 

And they don't come all at once. Father Time doesn't wake up and go, what should you do today? Oh, everything goes down. Deflation. Okay, I'll flip the switch. That doesn't happen. So it happens little by little and then all at once. And right now, we're seeing the little by little. We're already seeing house prices coming down all around the country. We're seeing vehicle prices drop right now. We're seeing lower interest rates being offered on vehicles when they have tons of them. 

And those low interest rates are by the manufacturers. Right? Because that is proof that everything is coming apart. Hey, if you want to take advantage of that real estate crash course, it will be available until January 1, and then it is being closed down to any new students because we're going bigger places with it. All right? With that being said, I thank you so much for watching. The economic Ninja is out. 

Bye. .