Hello, everyone. Economic Ninja here. Hope you're doing great. We're going to talk about the real estate market as a whole. I have two stories to share with you. The first one is about mortgage and HELOC balances, delinquencies and where the foreclosure market is right now. I'm also going to tell a story, talk about a story that is about a Texas billionaire that has made a lot of money in real estate and is giving a very serious warning, and it lines up with what we've been sharing on this channel. 

So with that, without further ado, let's dive into this. If you're new to this channel, if you wouldn't mind hitting the subscribe button, I can guarantee you this. We're going to take you on a heck of a ride as this market crashes in 2024. And we are going to all crush it together, buying up real estate and assets for pennies in the dollar. All right, here we go. 

First story out of Wolf street, it's entitled Mortgage and HELOC Balances, Delinquencies, Foreclosures. How are our drunken sailors holding up? Says mortgage balance outstanding ticked up 1% in quarter three from quarter two to a new record of $12. 1 trillion after having dipped in quarter two. According to data from the New York Fed's household debt and credit report. This increase is less than half the pace than the big jumps during the era of the 3% mortgages, when mortgage balances had soared quarter to quarter by as much as 2. 

8% in quarter two of 2021. Now, let me tell you, this information is on the heels of a lot of things that have recently changed in the market in the last like week and a half, two weeks. They are starting to report all over the mainstream media that mortgage rates have plummeted. They have not. They've went from like 7. 7% to 7. 6. They have not plummeted. All right. 

But they're saying this is the most it's plummeted since in the last year. They're also saying that mortgage applications jumped. They did not jump. They're talking about going up 2. 5% week over week. That is nothing. The mainstream media is trying to hype real estate badly. They want so badly to be able to hype what is going on in the markets here. Hold on a second. This light is bright. 

We're going to turn this down. Point being is this, we are in a situation right now where the media knows that they have to help the banks, because if the banks do not sell mortgages. The banks do not make money. And what could be worse than the banks not making money? Well, problem is, they're having a hard time staying solvent. Now, I'm going to be doing a story on the real estate ninja right after this one about what's going on with bank deposits. 

And quite frankly, it's pretty shocking how bad it's getting. But I don't want to dive into that just yet. We're going to go back into the real estate. Year over year, mortgage balances rose 4%, which is down by over half from the year over year increases in 2021 and 2022 that had reached 10%. In a moment, we'll look at what could cause an uptick in mortgage balances even as home sales have plunged and as mortgage applications to purchase a home have collapsed. 

So here's a couple of points. Some things that are adding to mortgage balances. The growing total inventory of homes owned by a growing population. Prices rise over the years. Prices soared or price soared in 2000 and 22,022, dictating today's big mortgages. A boom in cash out refis is happening right now, and that's very important because as cash out refis happen, you have to realize those are people that are in desperate need of money to be able to stabilize their own personal debt levels. 

Okay. This is very serious because that means the consumer is tapped out. Now, they say what subtracts from mortgage balances? Well, regular mortgage principal payments. As people pay their payments down, mortgage balances drop. Right. We're talking about over a nation mortgage payoffs. And people with 3% mortgages are clinging to them. And that, I think, is something that is really going to damage a handful of people I know sounds crazy because I was always in that camp, too. 

I could make more money than the 3% that I own my home. A lot of people said that before the. com bust, and also a lot of people said that before the 2008 stock market crash as it was going down in 2007, but really picked up in 2008, a lot of people had their money in markets, money market funds, things like that, and things collapsed and the bets that they thought they were making where their mortgage was less, they ended up that money evaporating. 

I know people that had that happen. Now it says HELOC balances have been rising for four quarters from historic lows. Homeowners with 3% mortgages can no longer cash out Refi their homes without causing a catastrophic increase in their mortgage payment, as the entire 3% mortgage would be replaced with a 7% plus mortgage. And HELOC stands for home equity line of credit accomplishes the same thing. But the 3% mortgage stays in place, and only the HELOC portion comes with a 7% plus price tag. 

Now, let me share with you something. I saw HELOCs the other day advertising one of my local banks at 9. 25%. And they were touting how great it was because it was a 14 year, eleven month interest only period. Now, that is where we are at. Now, in order to get people to even be able to get a home equity line of credit on top of their first mortgage, so they can consolidate debt at these massive nosebleed interest rates, and they are going to go higher. 

People can only afford the interest only. So they're never knocking down that principal payment. Okay, we are in the end of 2007. We're about to enter 2008, all right? And that was that. Quiet lull in 2007. I teach this in the real estate crash course. If you want, there's some links down below, discount links, but it's that crest where people are locked into their home. They're prisoners in their own home. 

They don't know where to go because they can't go anywhere. They cannot simply sell their own home. And this is way worse on a percentage scale than 2007, but they can't sell their home and then buy the one next door to it. Right? So the HELOC, they say, accomplishes the same thing because the 3% mortgage stays in place. But then you have this additional payment. HELOC balances, it says, rose by $9 billion, or by 2. 

6% in quarter three from quarter two. That's just a quarterly difference to 349,000,000,000. They remain extremely low considering the increase in home prices over the 20 year period as homeowners used Refis instead of HELOCs. Let me explain the reason why the HELOC rate is so astronomical as compared to these others. That there are people that just simply can't afford it. And what's more interesting that most people don't realize is that during a market crash and homes fall in value and people lose their jobs, people that actually have a first and a second, like a HELOC, they're less likely to lose their house because if they can't make one mortgage and they decide to stop making the payments on the second because of the way that second is not going to go take your house, they would have to buy out the first. 

And the ratio to how big your second is compared to how big your first is. Is just not advantageous. So a lot of homeowners during 2008 to 2012 were able to negotiate with their seconds, the HELOCs or the second mortgages on their homes and be able to come up with a solution. So, ironically, people that get the HELOC are less likely to lose their house if they lose their job because they have some power there. 

As long as they keep making their taxes, paying their insurance on the home, and they pay the first, they're not in threat of getting that home foreclosed on. But I don't think a lot of people realize that. Now, check this out. It says the burden of mortgage debt. Homes are a lot more expensive today than they were 20 years ago, but consumers make a lot more money too. 

That's actually not true. The average wage in the country has not gone up exponentially, especially if you track it with home values and things like that. So people are hurting. Now, I will say that people have more jobs than they used to have. There are a lot more people that are underemployed. They have two or three jobs just to keep them afloat. But all in all, I do not agree with that. 

Turns out massive gyrations overall mortgage debt. And as a percent of disposable income is roughly where it had been in 2003. Disposable income is income from all sources except capital gains, minus taxes and social insurance payments. This is the cash that consumers have left to spend on housing, foods, cars, et cetera. I believe that is dwindling so fast it's making my head spin. And I've been warning people about this. 

It's one thing to warn people about it and see something ahead of time, that it's coming, but it's another thing to live through it and go, wow, I lived through this a couple of times because I sold all my homes in 2006 except for three. And it was blowing my mind as I was running around warning people of a real estate crash. People thought I was nuts. But how long that market held on is really the craziest thing. 

Then we have the pandemic era funds, remember that consumers got that caused disposable income to spike and therefore the burden ratio to fall. And note that the impact in recent quarters of the biggest pay increases in 40 years, even as mortgage debt barely increased. Well, that is because these pay increases because of this insane inflation that we're experiencing. And we're nowhere near the end of this. And the reason why we're not is because policymakers around the world, governments, want to take your stuff. 

And it sounds crazy, but it's true. You'll find out in a handful of years. Type one, if you agree this is a plan to slowly squeeze you out of your assets and they're going to buy them for pennies on the dollar and you're not going to blame them, you're going to be more likely embarrassed about this kind of stuff. You'll stay quiet. I saw a very similar thing happen, and this has been going on for about 40 to 50 years. 

Just so you know, these expansions in credit and pullbacks, expansion in credits and pullbacks, and they get you hooked with cheap money, and Then they get you into all kinds of crazy debt, things that you shouldn't be affording, the average American should not be affording. And then they pull it back. But it's not like they pull it back. They just raise rates because inflation picks up. This is the most basic econ 101 lesson, supply and demand and then where rates and credit markets affect debt markets and inflation. 

Right? So people need to realize that. And the other thing, too, is all that stimulus that hit people's pocketbooks, not all of it was spent on Gucci, swimwear and Louis Vuitton bags. A lot of it did hit savings accounts. And we've just seen where the largest CEOs of the nation's largest banks, bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, have actually warned that, hey, they're monitoring all these savings accounts. 

They're now empty as of this month, November. And so we're there right now. And that's where people need to have their mind is, okay, consumers now dead broke. We're going into an election year. And trust me, the government, they want to make fires, light fires so they could put out fires to get a vote. Type two, if you understand what I'm talking about, and agree it's true. And so we need to realize how big of a deal this is. 

So check this out. So let's talk about the other side, the delinquencies. So, transitioning into delinquencies, which are 30 days or more overdue on your mortgages. So mortgage balances that were newly delinquent by 30 days or more at the end of the quarter ticked up to 2. 8% of total balances, which is still lower than any time before the pandemic and down from the 3. 5% during the good times in 2007 and 2019. 

So let me stop there and say that there actually weren't good times in 2017 and 2019. We actually saw a pretty big market sell off where the dow dropped like 19 and a half percent, which was on par with the first drop during the Great Depression. Right during the crash. 29. And we had a banking crisis going on, a stealth banking crisis. And a lot of people don't understand how it was happening, but the Federal Reserve was having to intervene. 

And lo and behold, like six weeks after this whole thing started, the banking crisis, 2019, a flu started. You can't make this stuff up, but they hide these things. Well, right now, we're at the point where they don't want to hide it. They don't want you to know that they're allowing it to happen. Okay. Wealthy people around the world are allowing this to happen. And what I'm trying to do is wake people up to this acknowledgment or get people to acknowledge, okay, I see what they're doing. 

They're like puppet masters pulling on the strings of the interest rates and the market, capital markets. And we need to be ready for this because all they need is most of the population to get their credit score to come down into bad territory by missing a credit card payment, a HELOC payment, a mortgage payment, a car payment, whatever. Just they miss something, then they're not allowed to participate in the fun stuff as the markets crash. 

Okay, that comes this next year. So these delinquencies are one thing, but what you also have to remember is there's a bunch of forbearance cases that are now working their way through the foreclosure process. And you're going to see those foreclosures hitting the streets by around June of this next year. And this is where you want to be ready to rock and roll and prepared for this so that you could take advantage of it. 

Now, for HELOCs, those are mortgages, right? For HELOCs, home equity line of credits, the 30 day plus delinquency rate rose to 1. 8% in quarter three after having dropped to 1. 5 in the prior quarter and remains ultra low. Now, this is what I want to show you. This is a great chart to show you. Okay? So this is mortgage and HELOCs. HELOCs are the green Line. Mortgages are the red. 

Okay? That big spike was obviously the great financial crisis, but this is where I want to show you, and this is very important. When this all started, it was at its low HELOC delinquencies and mortgage delinquencies. It was at its low in 2006. You can see it right there. Now, I started selling my homes in 2006. Why? Because the Federal Reserve was doing what's called the dot plot plan. 

They were raising rates incrementally, and they'd started around 2004, and I knew, or 2003, and I knew that by mid 2005, it was unsustainable. Okay? And the way banks report their delinquencies, they don't come right out and just say, hey, many people they do, but they keep it quiet during a time of market panic. They don't want to panic the markets because they're trying their hardest to get rid of that paper as they can. 

But you could see where it started. It bottomed in 2006. And then by 2008, look at where it was in 2008. Here's 2008. We were nowhere near the peak. Right? Then the panic. All the filings started. All right, so now this is what I want to show you. And I think this is so very important. So during 2021 and 2022, it completely bottomed. Just, I mean, to nothing. 

Right? Why? Because nobody had to make their payments and they couldn't get in trouble, and they had government stimulus and things like that. All right, so this is what I want to show you. Those two lines are getting darn close to where they were before everything kicked off in 2006. But here's what you need to remember. We go, oh, no, we still got a lot of time ninja. 

Because this is lower than this, right? This is where you need to realize the way the banks report their delinquencies are completely different based on legislation like DOD, Frank, and other legislation than they used to report back then. There is a lot of dark pools and a lot of derivatives involved. And when this pops off, it will be like when you look at the federal funds rate, where you see it go up and down cycles of ten, seven to ten years, right? But this last one, it went straight up. 

Straight up. Because the Fed's never been since the late 70s hit with a dilemma like this of national inflation, actually worldwide inflation. What you need to realize is just like the Federal Reserve thing popped up instantly. It was like overnight, and people are just shocked. This, you will see one quarter boom where foreclosures are up 10%. It will jaw drop you, we will be reporting it on this channel, and it will exacerbate the problem because so many more people will start, oh, I'm not the only one. 

I'm finally pulling the plug. I'm not going to play my payment. You're going to see banks running for the exits with their. Because it's who gets to the FDIC first gets the bailout. And you're going to see them start to run for the exits and they're going, okay, we got delinquencies too. We got delinquencies too. You see the Federal Reserve's repurchase window is open even though it's shrinking right now, how much they're helping the banks. 

They are helping the banks. And that Fed repurchase window wasn't open until January of 2009. So you already have a massive crisis. There are, mortgage backed securities are going into default right now. There are tons of commercial mortgage backed securities are in default. As a matter of fact, I'm getting wind of some company starts with an M, ends with a millennial that is being investigated right now, and I need to find some more information on it. 

The FBI is involved. There's already three letter agencies investigating. And Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are all of a sudden starting to, and it's very quiet right now. It's probably going to come out in the next few weeks, probably by January, that these government agencies are starting to find tons of fraud in the way that these banks have reported the credit worthiness of certain paper when it comes to mortgages and also with how they're reporting what's going on in the back. 

So people need to realize this. Now. Check this out. Serious delinquencies. It says 90 plus days. Mortgage balances that were 90 days or more delinquent by the end of the quarter edged up only half of a percent in quarter three. It was 0. 5 from zero point 46 in the prior quarter, about half the rate from the good times before the pandemic and from the good times before the housing bus. 

So I believe this is going to spike like you won't believe in about quarter one of 2024. We're going to have those numbers. Let's move on to this warning because I've got to get on the real estate ninja channel. This Texas billionaire, this is out of Yahoo. Finance, sees real estate bargains as debt wall looms. This is something I've been warning about for a long time, says out of Texas from Bloomberg. 

Billionaire and real estate investor John Goff predicted that a number of appealing properties will hit the market soon as rising interest rates force some investors to sell. We're entering a period here where there are going to be great properties that hit a debt wall, Jeff said Tuesday on Bloomberg's television Wall Street Week with David Weston. We'll be able to acquire some very attractive properties at compelling prices. This is what I've been warning people about. 

This is why I made the real estate crash. Course, if you want to figure this out, and take action now. There's 80% links down below. There's no better time than right now to get ready for this because they're going to count on most of you not having a credit score worthy enough to get a loan because they're going to change the dynamics of how they give out mortgages and you have to be ready for that. 

Joff's remarks echo those of other prominent real estate investors who are eager to cash in on an anticipated wave of defaults and restructurings in commercial real estate. In May, Starwood Capital's group's Barry Sternlict said his business is poised to seize on potential distress as higher rates and falling demand squeeze property owners and Armin Panosian, one of Oaktree Capital Management's two incoming co chief executive officers, said in September that he sees an opportunity coming in the office sector, although it may not be quite the time to pounce yet. 

Thank you so much for thanks. Off Roading explained for the super chat this is the deal that I've been telling you about. The big money is foaming at the mouth to take advantage of this real estate crash, and I want Americans to be ready to take advantage of this. This is so vital for your financial security, it's insane. Thank you so much single for the super chat the massive commercial real estate market is under pressure from high vacancies and rapid increased interest rates that fuel distress in the market, particularly for firms that have to refinance. 

I got to address this super chat, actually, check this out. The super chat states the crash is going to be so big. Currency reset. Currency reset. No billionaires will benefit from this. I think that's completely wrong. You see, the fact is, regardless, if you have a currency reset, and everyone seems to think that it's going to like, all of a sudden the dollar is going to be completely worthless. 

We're going to have a mild bout of hyperinflation in this crash, but we are going to still have the dollar as the currency and it will be reset versus other currencies. That is true, but that's not going to stop the real estate market. That's not going to stop capital markets. As they go up and they go down, they go up again. It's not going to affect debt markets and the fact that they're going to stop giving out debt. 

They never stopped during the Great Depression. They didn't stop during the Great Recession. What happened was a tightening of those debt markets. And that tightening came two different ways. Obviously it got more expensive to borrow, but also it became harder to borrow because there were more standards set up because of risk mitigation. If you're not prepared for that, with a solid credit score, a little bit of money in the bank, your personal balance sheet set up, you are going to be on the sidelines not taking advantage of this type five if you wish you were ready for 2008. 

Before 2008 came, there are a lot of people that lost their home in 2008, millions of people actually. And if you were prepared for it, you would have been out there crushing it, making hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars, buying up homes when nobody was showing up to open houses. You were negotiating the heck out of deals and you are making good buys. Now. This opportunity is even bigger. 

The interest rate spike is heavier, the debt load is bigger. Everything is in your favor. If you're prepared for this, I'm going to move over to the real estate ninja because there's some bad stuff happening in the banking sector and I'm going to follow it. If you guys wouldn't mind following me over there, I'll be live in five minutes and I'm going to put those 80% off discount links down in the comments section below. 

It's up to you. Are you ready to take advantage of this? Are you ready to see the signs and actually do something about it? Or sit back and enjoy the ride? Or watch I'm sorry, other people enjoy the ride. The economic ninja is out. .